Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) Share Price

Looks like the decline is going to accelerate from here. Unless they can put out some worthless fluff - anymore employee RSUs and it could see $4 - $3 in short order.

More CEO selling - this week 237K shares - these people all have about a qtr million shares left to dump but don't worry they will grant themselves as much as they may want - NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS GANG.

OMG they continue to make the whole company about giving away stock to insiders and employees instead of drugs to patients that need them. They have turned ARDX into their own personal ATM machine.

Thx for the DD
Kiwi

This value they claim is based on fairytale assumptions and really mean nothing.

Again these preferred warrants of many different letters A,B,C are milestone based not share price based - this may be how they were able to overvalue them best on possible outcomes, if the milestones don't happen the warrants are worthless unless they sneak back in and come up with a different gimmick to allow the handing out of no cost Preferred classes of stock. This is not a normal way to do warrants but I guess they had to spike the punchbowl to get the hedgies to drink the koolaid.

Here is what I see, nowhere does it mention an exercise price on any of the warrants they handed out to the hedgies. It is really based on milestones rather than share price but what I believe to be free flowing warrants that do not cost the holders a penny to exercise rather they will probably automatically convert at time of each milestone for each different class of warrant. It's really a screw the shareholders way of presenting hidden warrants to the monied investors and insiders is my guess.

, each share of Series A-1 Preferred Stock is, subject to the Stockholder Approval (as defined below), convertible
into a unit (“Unit”) consisting of (i) shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company (the “Common Stock”) and, if applicable, shares of Series A-2 Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company (the “Series A-2 Preferred Stock”), in lieu of Common Stock, (ii) a tranche A warrant to acquire shares of Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche A Warrant”), (iii) a tranche B warrant to acquire shares of Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche B Warrant”), and (iv) a tranche C warrant to acquire shares of Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche C Warrant”, together with the Tranche A Warrant and the Tranche B Warrant, the “Warrants”). The shares of Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock and Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock issuable upon exercise of the Warrants collectively are referred to herein as the “Preferred Warrant Shares”. The Tranche A warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of FDA approval for Renazorb, the Tranche B warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of Transitional Drug Add-On Payment Adjustment (“TDAPA”) approval for Renazorb, and the Tranche C Warrant for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $50 million are exercisable until 21 days following four quarters of commercial sales of Renazorb following receipt of TDAPA approval. Subject to the terms and limitations contained in the Certificate of Designation, the Series A-1 Preferred Stock issued in the Offering will not become convertible until the Company’s stockholders approve the issuance of the Units upon conversion of the Series A-1 Preferred Stock and the issuance of all Common Stock upon conversion of the Series A Preferred Stock (as defined below), among other items (the “Stockholder Approval”). On the tenth (10th) Trading Day (as defined in the Certificate of Designation) following the announcement of the Stockholder Approval, each share of Series A-1 Preferred Stock shall automatically convert into a Unit. Subject to the limitations set forth in the Certificate of Designation, at the option of the holder, each share of Series A-2 Preferred Stock, Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock or Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock shall be convertible into one share of Common Stock.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/conv_pdf?id=16469095&guid=lyQ-kasTiMf6B3h

Ernie. Chk the warrants for UNCY issued in early March 2023 .
They apparently used the Monte Carlo pricing strategy that gives these warrants option like qualities , without the usual time decay ...my basic understanding .
They were issued around 50c a share from what I can determine ...so huge upside if trial succeeds.
Kiwi

Wow As of the issuance date (March 3, 2023), the estimated fair value of the warrants was $2.8 million, which increased to $13.2 million as of March 31, 2023 based on updated assumptions and inputs

From $2.8 m value to $13.2 m value in less then 30 days !!!! some supercharged warrants

Kiwi

Interesting Thx
Are you referring to this https://ir.unicycive.com/news/detail/44/unicycive-announces-up-to-130-million-financing-to

This is March 2023

Pursuant to the securities purchase agreement, the Company will issue to purchasers (i) $30 million in shares of the Company’s Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and (ii) three tranches of warrants that are exercisable for convertible preferred stock as follows:

The Tranche A warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of FDA approval for Renazorb;
The Tranche B warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of TDAPA approval for Renazorb; and
The Tranche C warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $50 million are exercisable until 21 days following public disclosure of four quarters of commercial sales of Renazorb following receipt of TDAPA approval.
Shares of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock will be issued at a price of $1,000.00 per share. All of the shares of preferred stock, the warrants and the securities underlying such shares of preferred stock and warrants, are being offered by Unicycive.

Proceeds from the offering will be used to support the Company’s NDA submission with the FDA for approval of Renazorb for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in the U.S. and, if approved, for the commercial launch of Renazorb in the U.S.

and
As of the issuance date (March 3, 2023), the estimated fair value of the warrants was $2.8 million, which increased to $13.2 million as of March 31, 2023 based on updated assumptions and inputs.
These recently issued warrants are distinct from the warrants associated with Unicycive's July 2021 initial public offering, which were exercisable for common stock at $6.00 per share for a 5-year period.

The March 2023 warrants represent a more complex instrument tied to the company's financing needs and clinical progress.
Kiwi

Warrants don't seem to be anywhere near being in the money. The 2021 warrants have a $6 exercise price(at least at time of issue) Current price of the stock is under 90 cents. The warrants are not registered that I could find because UNCY probably won't register them until financiers are ready to exercise them. I love trading warrants without wanting to ever exercise them, public warrants are a very cost effective way to bet on companies that issue them.

Unless anyone can find a change to the exercise price, there is no purpose to exercise them til commons break above $6

JMHO having traded warrants for the last 8 years without ever exercising a single one, but then again I not a hedge fund.

Well if the trial is considered a failure there probably won't be a capital raise. If successful I expect the hedge funds currently providing capital will exercise their warrants .
Not an expert in the field but think this is what will happen if trial succeeds

The key points on how warrants provide cash to companies:
Companies issue warrants along with other securities like stocks or bonds to make the offering more attractive to investors.
Warrants give the holder the right, but not obligation, to purchase a set number of the company's shares at a fixed strike price within a certain time period.
If the market price of the stock rises above the strike price before expiration, warrant holders are incentivized to exercise their warrants by paying the strike price to the company.
The cash paid by investors to exercise the warrants provides capital directly to the issuing company in exchange for newly issued shares.
However, if warrants are not exercised before expiration, the company does not receive any cash proceeds from the unexercised warrants.
So in summary, warrants act as a future source of potential capital for companies, but the cash is only received when and if the warrants are actually exercised by investors before expiry.


Also https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/unicycive-therapeutics-UNCY/stock-news/93487624/unicycive-announces-50-million-private-placement

Kiwi

When is the capital raise going to happen on UNCY? After the results of the binder study?

PIPER Sandler $ARDX: No Way to Sugarcoat This – CCO Departure is Not Good-We are in the dark as much as anyone, but with CMS slated to include oral binders in bundle next year (barring specific legislation), wonder if this may be the source of disagreement

They were also overcharging for Xphazoh compared to what they charge ( per gm ) for the same drug to their IBSC patients
Those on Medicare / Medicaid would need to pay close to $1,000 a mth copay .
Push back was inevitable

Kiwi

Come on - if she is out put her out - why keep dead weight around for longer than necessary. CUT HER LOSE AND CANCEL ALL UNEARNED SIGN ON UNITS - Time for the circus to let go of what is keeping it down - RELOOK AT THE ENTIRE C-SUITE AND DUMP WHAT DOESN'T ADD VALUE.

UNCY has completed their final pivotal trial and is processing that data ...due to be released in the next 2-4 weeks .
If the trial succeeds their drug OLC will be on the market by end of 2025

Kiwi

They should lower it so everyone that needs it has access to it.

Their still in Phase 1, that's at least 5 years out. Xphozah will have a tremendous advantage. Who know's X might be SOC by then.

Well ARDX could lower the price per gm to match what they charge for IBRSELA ..it's the same drug Teanapour .
They just charge almost twice as much ...for the same drug ..to dialysis patients .
Why ?
Well I'm sure they will offer some BS argument for why dialysis patients must pay more than IBSC patients ...for the same drug.

Real challenge for Xphazoh MAY be the data for UNCY due this qt .
If the UNCY trial shows patients will tolerate OLC ..1 small pill swallowed with meals ....and the price is less then X ...????

Kiwi

That is sad to hear that life has a price tag on it.

Cosa. So at least my wife's Nephrology Dept is now talking about trying Xphazoh on select patients who have very bad serum Pho numbers . Problem is they are all on Medicare or Medicaid and can't use ARDX's coupon or afford the roughly $1,000 a month copay currently required for this Tier 5 drug.
Kiwi

I followed you into UNCY when I sold out ARDX @ $7.45. ARDX owes me nothing as I entered at $1.13 long ago. Hoping to have the same return from the favorable entry in UNCY - I will continue to add on any drops that might present themselves.

You and Cosa are very in tune with the ins and outs of trials, approvals and the like whereas I fly by wire, I use gut feeling and how management treats shareholders and I just didn't like the feeling I was getting when looking at all the freebies self dealing of shares.

I wish all who remain the best of returns - There was a time when I realistically thought $25 - $30 - wish I still felt that way. ARDX certainly wouldn't be the first party I left too early.

Cosa ...No I had sold all my shares in the $4's thinking there was upside to UNCY ...we''l know if that was a good idea or not probably by the end of this month.

They say roughly half their sale are to Medicare patients ,
But Medicare can't use the coupon so its a Tier 5 drug ( at Kaiser anyway ) where patients typically pay 1/3 rd of the cost ...in this case around $1,000 each month
Co won't disclose how much of their " sales " were no cost to the patient .
Scripts are normally 30 days at a time ( NDS ) with a PA ( prior approval ).
Most hate the existing Pho binders so getting the PA is no problem . Getting renewal month after month at no cost to the patients ...dont know how long that would last or how many of the Medicare patients actually paid the full copay .

ARDX had prepared the launch really well . Had Renal depts identify those most likely to try XPHOZAH all ready in advance and then I suspect dropped a whole lot of free samples for the first month or 3 .

IF the copay for Medicare patients is around $1,000 a month , few of these patients IMHO will stay on X ...or sharply reduce how much they take each day
JMO
Kiwi

I didnt see that filing. So she's still holding over 270,000 shares after that?

Elizabeth Grammer seems to think $9 is the top because she set 45K shares to sell there according to her 144 filing

The market obviously sees something I don't - Huge volume and nice price action.

Indeed. Neph's are a specialty in their field. Word of mouth will spread like a wild fire. Did you sell all your shares or keep some? I closed my covered calls about 2 weeks ago for +75%, I think I'm going to sell another batch.

Hmm..Well they're sitting on $202M at at the moment. SG&A expenses $53M + R&D Expenses $10.3M - Revenue $46M (Lets say it's flat every quarter) = -$17M a quarter. I don't think they will do an offering in the year 2024. The Xphozah revenue was quite shocking, it basically saying this is the best drug out there and everyone is starting to prescribe it. By Q3 the Xphozah revenue may surpass the Ibsrela revenue. By year 2025 revs could be ramping up between $300K - $0.5B. But an offering in this case is not a bad thing to support on going R&D. The more cash they are sitting only makes the company stronger in this case. Any lowball offer will be instantly rejected. BP loves lowballing companies on the verge of going belly up.

Cosa. These are excellent first Qt numbers for XPHOZAH ....sorry ..post repeated .
Either way shows how patients hate the current binders and Nephrologists are excited to offer an alternative that reduces pill burden and gives them dosing flexibility

ARDX now has first mover advantage even if UNCY's drug OLC eventually makes it onto the market
Kiwi

Cosa. These are excellent first Qt numbers for XPHOZAH but keep in mind

1) They aren't reviewing how many are getting the drug for free ( via their coupon plan ) . They simply say around 55% are Medicare ( who can't use the coupon )
So are those on Medicare paying the full patient copay of an estimated $1,000 a mth ( Tier 5 rating )
They have probably provided a lot of free samples for the first couple of months ( my guess )

2) Early adopters . One of the main complaints on the existing binders is constipation .
One of the main problems with XPHOZAH is diarrhea in the first 2 wks ...less over time.
So the Nephrologists will have identified this who complain of constipation the most and offered them X ...as they want a " looser " stool anyway.

3) We have the final UNCY trial with their binder completed ...data due probably late this month .
This is 1 small pill with each meal vs 1 small pill at breakfast and 1 with dinner . Diarrhea is less of a problem with OLC but some experience nausea , stomach upsets. UNCY's final trial is about tolerability not efficacy .
If UNCY's trial fails ARDX's XPHOZAH will be the only new serum pho lowering drug available.
If UNCY's trial succeeds X will have competition in about a yr

Kiwi

Great, see ya at the end of Q3

Doubtful. This should profitable by Q3.

Wanna bet they do an offering? Sorry but the game plan seems too "pumpish". Conference news on the 1st and magical numbers out the 2nd???? Dig into the Q don't listen to what they say, read what is in the Q. Enjoy the run.

The revs! in such a short amount of time. This is a monster in the making!

30 min in on the call ...60% are Medicare patients ( XPHOZAH )
Impressive ...just shows how much they hate the current binders that they are willing to fork over close to $1,000 each month as a co pay ( since they don't qualify for the coupons )
Watch the UNCY data due late this mth ,,,,an obvious direct competitor in a year if their trial succeeds.
Kiwi

Thx. I'll listen to the CC ( or read the transcript.)
Most of my wife's dialysis patients are on serum pho binders ...they all hate them and none are at goal .
Most are Medicaid / Medicare and none are trying XPHOZAH at present

My wife also has some patients on Fosrenol ...a new version of which OLC ( UNCY ) will report pivotal data late this mth
1 small pill with meals vs 1 small pill with breakfast and dinner for XPHOZAH

Kiwi

They addressed the Medicare/Medicaid split on their call.

1st quarter sales are typically lowest, as I'm sure you know, due to deductible resets/seasonality. These guys even had to deal with the recent healthcare cyber attack and they still beat estimates

I can only imagine the growth that awaits us in the coming quarters once insurers fall in line

Well before U get to excited about XPHOZAH ...those on Medicare / Medicaid are excluded from their coupon plan ( no cost to private insurance patients )...and most on dialysis are over 65 ( the Medicare / Medicaid population )
So good impression out of the gate for the low hanging fruit
JMO
Kiwi

Good thing I kept adding during the 3 month sell off. These guys might be profitable by Q3

Impressive start for XPHOZAH . I think the Co must be providing huge discounts / coupons etc for patients as most dialysis patients ( if my wife's patients are any example ) can't afford the roughly $1,000 co pay without company assistance

Ahh. The coupon plan https://xphozah-hcp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Xphozah_Copay_Card_.pdf
Kiwi

That $6.30 area support held. Nice move after hours

IBSRELA® (tenapanor) records $28.4 million in net product sales revenue in Q1 2024
XPHOZAH® (tenapanor) launch progresses, records $15.2 million net product sales revenue during Q1 2024

https://ir.ardelyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ardelyx-reports-first-quarter-2024-financial-results-and

Rolling over. In fact my source for biomed stocks is Barchart. Biomed stocks peaked a few weeks ago.
Barchart has a sector list which currently has 460 issues. It used to be over 500. Barchart won’t include in its sector a stock priced below a dollar.

Still watching... Not going to add until it hits $4's.

I'll be fine, my cost basis was $1.13 - $1.33 per share so my exit was fine, I should have gotten out at $9 but then I started thinking about every move mismanagement was making to drive the price down - I think it still has much downside to go.

I could be wrong but I made money which is what I always attempt to do.

You'll regret it in 2 and a half weeks.

The chart looks like a dumpster fire on its way. Glad I let go of my dreams for ARDX being a winner, I did well but was hoping for a bigger runner. Will most definitely see $6s maybe even lower.

Engulfing candle today. Might be the start of the run up in April.

OUT

Well obviously I missed the best exit. I'm sure they don't care about sales they just set the price insanely high in order to show imaginary value when they find a taker to buy this pig in a poke. Very disappointed in what I see happening here.

Tutes now hold 100 Million more shares than back in 2022

From back in November 29, 2022. I uploaded this to my image gallery.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/11/29/ibdcjus-ardx-so.webp

Now:
https://fintel.io/so/us/ardx

management and the BOD are driving it into the ground, my guess is so they can try and sell it on the cheap to make bank on the excessive grants and options they have been throwing all over the place, hell even the guy who just started is in line for over 200K options.

I used to be extremely bullish on this ticker but management is proving to only be interested in themselves.

LOOKING FOR THE EXIT NOW THAT IT BROKE BELOW MY "$7.50 IS AS LOW AS IT MAY GO" POST.

ARDX under $10