Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA) Options

They have a cap on how many 65-75 year olds (without comorbidities) they can enroll
Fwiw the hospitalization rate last season peaked at 6 per 100k for 65-74 yo and was more than double at 15/100k persons 75 and up. It peaked at .6/100k for 18-49 year olds as a frame of reference, so even the younger older adults had 10x the hospitalization rate as young adults .
Last year and this year have had higher hospitalization rates for older adults compared to the 2 years just prior to the pandemic on the RSV-NET site fwiw. Shows how ineffectual the introduction of adult RSV vaccines has been

Has ENTA moved toward older patients in the HR trial… ie 75 yo? Thank you.

Well said. I would just add that a partnership also means higher probability of success in RSV. Shionogi started an observational peds study last month. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06746051?term=Shionogi%20rsv&rank=1
So in all likelihood they are progressing their L so you definitely don’t want to get passed if the L inhibitors are in fact better. I don’t think ENTA could reasonably have progressed both on their own

Yes, agree, as commitment to partnership means a few things:

1) cash burn will come down, runway will increase
2) partnership can come anytime now, so the cost of not-in or holding a short position could be significant.
3) company can now focus on immunology, a pure play often get better valuation vs. company that has mixed focus. Especially when kit and stat6 seems to be a hot (but crowded) area.

At least I felt better after the confirmation.

Congrats on having a good day based on a good call!
The coming months will confirm whether IHub buyers have made a prescient purchases.
There may come a time we could feel OK about the share price dipping this low.

I think a commitment to partner RSV may have been a factor too. I know the market didn’t initially react positively but delayed reactions happen
Anyway who cares as long as it continues to go up. It’s about time

At some point, insanely low valuation becomes a strong catalyst in its own right, and that point was just reached, IMO. Therefore, I’m going out on a limb and asserting that $4.71 (on 1/16/25) was the bottom.

Based on a 3rd positive listen to the recent presentation and how low the share price was- I too added at $4.84 -the beginning of the day.
It's thrilling to make a buy and have it be green for a few hours.😄
We'll see how the day or week ends.🙃
I increased my small stake just shy of 8%.
I'm another "rounding error investor". : )

Thx
The reason I posted RSV case rates by age is that there is a widely held belief that Nirsevimab and maternal vaccination are underutilized because last year pediatric case rates were not any lower than prepandemic levels. The contention that these measures don't reduce case rates but rather shift them to older age categories is not universally held at all, and has implications for the size of the peds RSV market moving forward.
Nivesimab was supply constrained last year, but this season I think more widely available, so I think comparing infection rates by age this year versus last is relevant to evaluate ENTA's contention that passive immunity pushes the age of first and most severe infection upward (and it may be that a first infection in a 1.5 year old is less severe than a 5 month old so it may lower overall cases a little, but from real time CDC data there is IMO a clear shift to older aged infants and young children being infected after more widespread implementation of passive immunity). i.e. the peds market is going to remain substantial even with near universal coverage of neonates, which is not I think a widely and certainly not universally believed contention among investors - which is why i have posted about it several times now. Articles like yours offer further support, but my best is that in a year or so we see peer reviewed publications on this after a coupel years of introduction of nirsevimab and maternal RSV vaccination

Total is now 1.198 million shares. Pretty significant.

I am still a rounding error net to the big boys on this baord but I increased my ENTA shares by 1/3 today so we are over 2 million shares.

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/central-ohio-news/map-cdc-reports-surge-in-respiratory-illnesses-in-ohio-nationwide/?fbclid=IwY2xjawH3XnZleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHdeuMaJVABq4R-TEhkr1bUk8sae_BDE8cmrokUgdpol5cnLgRvuYAl4h4Q_aem_sw9X3JBNPP2Zp7gUKcBvKg

More on effect of Mabs and maternal vaccination on RSV rates in peds

The data were just updated, and the curves for hospitalization rates in kids ages 1-4 has now clearly crossed higher this year than last. This is the ONLY age category in which this has occurred, so it is becoming quite clear that the age of first RSV infection has been pushed upward due to passive vaccination strategies for neonates and infants.
Sorry I don't know how to post the graphs but you can find it in this link:

https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/php/surveillance/rsv-net.html

Same. Will take any win after so many weeks of torture

Someone did seem to knock it down 10 cents end of day but still eked out a gain on a slightly red day for biotech I’ll take it

So it’s about time they will hammer us back down to red again ;) the squid game continues?

Well, a buyout and partnership can come anytime. And when it comes, it should at minimum bring the share price back up its cash and royalty steam value. That’s like $20 right there.

Of course, a right buyout deal could far exceed that figure. And now that solo RSV is off the table, I can sleep better knowing that I could wake up tomorrow and see ENTA up a few times when I wake up.

After the 5% ownership threshold has been crossed, an acquirer has 5 days to file, so, keep hope alive. LOL!

My shattered dreams -- I was trying to keep a cup half-full attitude but now I know the truth. Nobody wants it.

SEC Form 13D has to be filed if any investor (or affiliated group of investors) accumulates 5% of the outstanding shares.

Then you should acknowledge that an interested company would purchase shares at market price when it is sensible to do so, then provide the buyout offer when there are fewer shares left to acquire. With such acknowledgement one would not be denying that a potential suiter could be in the process of acquiring the company right now.

I too want to know who is purchasing all of these shares on the high volume days and why the cash of stock is not yet empty.

I don't think we will ever know
someone is not done closing a position, but perhaps others were also reassured after yesteday's talk since we are so far ahead of the index (but we know that can change on a dime). or this could finally be some shorts closing positions?
There is the one month wash period so can also be tax sellers who sold 30 days ago reentering

Was just about to post the same. What is going on

Rarity of hostile takeover [in biotech] may be due to a common belief that companies trading at prices low enough to be hostile takeover targets are not worth the cost. That's hogwash, IMO. Hostile takeovers in biotech almost never happen because a large proportion a biotech company's inherent value is the scientific knowhow of the R&D personnel. A hostile takeover is likely to cause many of the company's scientists to pack their bags.

wow I was in the OR and just checked and 250K shares traded in first half hour or so
i know volume has been high of late, but this is beyond
the stock is down but there is someone on the other end buying

Rarity of hostile takeover may be due to a common belief that companies trading at prices low enough to be hostile takeover targets are not worth the cost.

Challenge study: Dose steatotic persons with EDP-305 and then combat it with a KIT and STAT6 combo.

***Initial indications. Potential future indications include asthma, chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU), eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), prurigo nodularis (PN), and others

Makes me wonder if it could be paired up with the "Best in class" MASLD candidates to address the pruritis.

The slide set does not indicate that further development of either of the RSV candidates is dependent upon a partnership so we should all expect that there are plenty plans to which spend of money could be attributed in the future.

The combination of good enough data for zeli to warrant progression but room for upside efficacy and having 323 with that potential, and the need to validate resolve-p and complexities around that drove the decision IMO
If they showed a trend towards shorter hospitallization for example and could have justified a phase 3 with that as an endpoint (clearly an approvable endpoint no need for validation of a symptom tool) that could have enabled them to jump straight into a phase 3
JMO

the 10K breaks down the spend by program. see page 67 https://ir.enanta.com/node/12851/html
In 2024 they spent 83.36M on RSV. total R&D was 131.46, so the RSV program was close to two thirds of the spend
It does take time to wind down programs though, so RSV costs this year wouldn't vanish

Anyone care to speculate if RSV expenditures is off the table, what kind of annual cash burn we are looking at?

Partnership shift - a few months ago, ENTA planned to pursue RSV program independently, as reflected in their budget updates. Then, in the ped data call, management mentioned all options, including partnerships, are on the table. Now, partnering is their sole strategy.

Wonder what changed the narrative...

1) Strong 323 challenge data plus not-home-run type pediatric results made the program more complex and better suited for a partnership (as dewophile pointed out)

2) Interest from partners may have shifted the risk-reward balance in favor of collaboration. (upside was properly compensated)

3) ENTA seems focused on becoming a pure immunology biotech play, and partnering aligns with this goal.

4) They might never have planned to go solo but left the option open to strengthen their position in partnership talks. Now, they no longer needs such posture.

“Because this was contrary to what ENTA had done in all prior years (see #msg-175439732, bottom) some investors (reasonably) got spooked. “

Have to admit I missed this. I was focused on them changing from quarterly to yearly guidance for cash but didn’t notice the absence of specific 2025 guidance (in part bc most don’t have a fiscal year ending in September )
Anyway a phase 3 RSV was previously in guidance so the cash should last a bit longer as has been pointed out here. I’m not sure how much immunology was in guidance but at least a phase 1 for KIT was included so on that side of things the burn shouldn’t be much different than before

...who would want to PARTNER with ENTA when they could buy the entire company now for PITTANCE? The company cannot be bought for a pittance because the BoD understands what the business is worth and would reject a lowball offer. As for hostile takeovers, they almost never happen in biotech, so we can reasonably ignore such a possibility.

Re: FY2025 expense guidance So now that they have confirmed they are not doing phase 3 on RSV alone, the cash burn guidance should get updated in coming release as well?I concur and I consider this a salient point. I.e. part the impetus for the recent selloff has been ENTA's failure to furnish FY2025 expense guidance in the FY4Q24 press release in November. Because this was contrary to what ENTA had done in all prior years (see #msg-175439732, bottom) some investors (reasonably) got spooked.

p.s. If it were up to me, ENTA would issue FY2025 expense guidance immediately, rather than waiting for the FY1Q25 press release in early February, but I doubt this will happen.

Encourage all to listen to today’s JPM presentation. As we discussed stubbornly ploughing ahead alone in RSV, which would deplete the cash reserves, seems to be firmly off the table

If you want to cut to chase, go straight to 28:00 minute mark - “…our goal is to pursue partnerships for Zeli and/or EDP-323 - I think it’s time to explore those in earnestso that we can scale this in a way to help fulfill our vision…”

Emphasis added.

I just listened to the call. RSV lone-wolf path is definitely off the table and does seem the whole program will be partnered out even though he said “and/or” 323. That is great news indeed. I, too, felt relieved after knowing that.

Not sure they will necessarily wait for the HR data before a partnership. Jay said “it’s time to explore” partnership, no mention of waiting for HR data etc. I guess depends on what can get, hope they will accept a reasonable deal. It’s a large indication.

I would think a partner and ENTA won’t want to wait another 6 months and lose the valuable lead time they have had in the RSV area. They probably want to get going ASAP. 323s challenge data seems to have messed things up in a sense, the data is too good to not explore further and that needs money ;)

So now that they have confirmed they are not doing phase 3 on RSV alone, the cash burn guidance should get updated in coming release as well??

Another indication in immunology, the TAM $ of these indications are just next level.

now if they got some nice upfront on RSV and then use the royalty to fund the immunology. the sky is the limit.


One thing I disagree on your post - I think the stock can turn around and run back up without any actual news. The company and its stock has been so disconnected, maybe we can sell off with a RSV partnership news ;)

Eventually, company and stock performance will connect, hopefully, before the paint dries out.

No clue but I’m feeling better after today’s talk. As we discussed stubbornly ploughing ahead alone in RSV, which would deplete the cash reserves, seems to be firmly off the table and that was the one scenario which could in any way shape or form support such a discount to cash/royalty
Looks like we may need real news a partnership or data to make a move up. The latter is Q3 so shenanigans may continue for a while

We are down everyday since the new year.

And we are down from $16 to below 5, almost non-stop since 6 months ago.

Day like today and they sold almost 300k starting around 350pm to ensure we closed in RED

The question is why? And where are all those shares from

Realistically - who would want to PARTNER with ENTA when they could buy the entire company now for PITTANCE??

As I said prior - RED light -

Well, if the market write off the RSV, we should get a triple soon ;)

By the way, your previous RSV partnership comment is pretty much spot on, they do need a partnership to explore various possibilities, seems the excellent data on 323 kind of demand that.

Appreciate yours and others knowledge sharing here.

We should also credit them with a long history of their intention to go it alone for RSV. Let's give credit where credit is due this company has proven itself capable of changing direction.

skeptics will of course say they listed partnering 235 last year as a 2024 goal

The slide also listed RSV partnership as key 2025 catalyst. 🚀 lol

You should have a listen but this was made pretty clear as the intention in RSV at this point

They are 100% focused on a partner for RSV assets versus progressing on their own

Havent got a chance to listen to the call yet but if that’s what he committed too, that removes a range of bear cases here

Thanks
notice top billing on last slide is immunology whereas previously it was RSV, so I think the plan is to partner zeli and 323 completely (i.e not retain any geographies and any responsibility for a portion of phase 3 development), and use the proceeds and future milestones/royalties to fund an expanding immunology pipeline. So there is a clear intention now IMO to transition into an immunology company and hope that the antiviral drugs can fund this development to a large degree until at least POC for some of the immunology assets.

Direct link to ENTA's updated slide set:

https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/0b9a9564-339c-4501-8c98-eab636846bf4

I feel better about the Zeli program. J stressed that the pediatric study was really focused on safety and that safety is a big part of the FDA decision-making process for pediatric approvals. You also put the antiviral activity into context by saying that the drop was greater than the drop Paxlovid had in Covid. The stat 6 is still in the lead finding stage.

scroll to the bottom and you can download today's presentation

https://ir.enanta.com/events-presentations

1. RSVHR due Q3
2. 3rd immunology program to be announced later this year
3. selection of candidate STAT6 later this year
4. seems like their STAT6 is a bit different from some other companies that are looking at protein degraders (furthest along kymera in phase 1). This could be a point of differentiation clinically who knows. I think GILD paid for a protein degrader recently
5. Luly mentioned the 30M tax credit right away so not a trivial tax credit
6. They are 100% focused on a partner for RSV assets versus progressing on their own

Nothing earth shattering, but I heard what I hoped (and expected) to hear quite frankly

I can listen, but no slide deck. I'll log back in after archive.