Germany's Economy, Europe's Powerhouse, Contracts for First Time in Years -- Update
14 November 2018 - 8:31PM
Dow Jones News
By Nina Adam
FRANKFURT -- Germany's economy shrank for the first time in 3
1/2 years, as tussles over trade undermined exports and new
emissions rules hit car production.
Gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of goods and
services produced in an economy -- fell 0.8% in annualized terms in
the third quarter, data released Wednesday by the Federal
Statistical Office showed.
That marks the first decline in Germany's quarterly GDP since
the first three months of 2015, when it fell by an annualized rate
of 0.5%, and is well below the 3.5% rate registered in the U.S.
during the third quarter.
But economists said that Europe's economic powerhouse isn't in
danger of slipping into a recession any time soon.
"There is no reason to become panicky," said Andreas Rees, an
economist at UniCredit. "The latest weakness can be explained by a
curious coincidence of special circumstances."
Economists said that bottlenecks in the approval of passenger
cars in the wake of a new emissions-testing protocol hit automotive
production. Exceptionally low Rhine water levels -- the river is a
major transportation route for oil and other goods -- depressed
activity further.
"In the fourth quarter, the German economy will grow again
simply because car manufacturers are likely to gradually ramp up
their production again," said Commerzbank economist Ralph
Solveen.
Illustrating car makers' recent struggle to shift to new
standards, production of vehicles and parts dropped more than 7% in
the third quarter from the preceding period, according to the
statistics body.
Nevertheless, Germany's export-dependent economy has lost
momentum compared with last year, when it registered 2.2% growth
for the full year, as an intensifying trade spat between Washington
and Beijing damped foreign demand.
"The headwinds in global trade have become rougher," said Stefan
Schneider, an economist at Deutsche Bank. That is a concern,
because "in Germany, weak exports tend to hit investments with a
relatively short time lag," he added.
Germany's statistics body said that the decline in Germany's GDP
was largely caused by developments in foreign trade, as exports
dropped and imports rose from the second quarter.
Export expectations in the manufacturing sector hit the lowest
level in almost two years in October, according to a survey of
about 2,300 manufacturers by the Ifo Institute, a supply-side
economics think tank.
The German government and economic institutes have already
trimmed their outlooks. The government's council of economic
experts now expects growth of just 1.6% this year, compared with
2.3% projected previously. For 2019, they predict growth of
1.5%.
"Economic activity has clearly passed its peak," said Mr.
Schneider, who expects 1.3% growth in 2019.
Write to Nina Adam at nina.adam@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 14, 2018 04:16 ET (09:16 GMT)
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