rolvram
3 days ago
Below is a summary of the Magnificent 7’s performance, focusing on revenue growth, earnings growth, and forward P/E ratios, based on available data for 2024 and earlier quarters. Since exact quarterly breakdowns for all eight quarters are not fully detailed, I’ll use annual 2024 data, quarterly highlights, and trends where available.
Revenue Growth (2024 Full Year, unless specified):
NVIDIA: 114% (Q4 2024: $39.3B, up 78% YoY).
Meta: 22% (ad revenue-driven).
Microsoft: ~17% (Q3 2024, fiscal year ends June).
Alphabet: ~12-15% (strong Q3/Q4 2024).
Amazon: ~10-12% (Q4 2024: 12.8% for Mag-7 aggregate).
Apple: ~5% (Q3 2024 guidance).
Tesla: 1% (weak due to EV competition).
Earnings Growth (Q4 2024 and Recent Quarters):
NVIDIA: Led Mag-7 for six quarters, contributing ~73% of Mag-7 earnings growth in Q4 2024. GAAP EPS $2.94 (TTM, up 147% YoY).
Amazon: Strong Q4 2024, driven by AWS and AI.
Alphabet: Top 5 S&P 500 earnings contributor in Q3/Q4 2024.
Meta: Robust Q4 2024, high margins (>25%).
Microsoft: Steady, AI-driven (Azure) growth.
Apple: 16% YoY earnings growth in Q4 2023, slower in 2024.
Tesla: Declines (-33% operating profits Q2 2024, -40% Q4 2023).
Forward P/E Ratios (Estimated as of Q1 2025):
NVIDIA: 23.
Alphabet: ~20-25 (lowest, ~1.5x PEG in Jan 2024).
Meta: ~25-30.
Amazon: ~40-50 (down from 312x in 2023 due to earnings growth).
Microsoft: ~30-35.
Apple: ~30-35.
Tesla: ~80-100 (high due to low earnings, ~86x in 2023).
Mag-7 aggregate: 28.3x (vs. S&P 500 at 21.8x).
PEG Ratios (Jan 2024, where available):
Alphabet: 1.5x (lowest).
NVIDIA: 1.6x (likely improved with lower P/E and high growth).
Tesla: 1.8x (33% EPS growth projected 2024-2028).
Mag-7 average: 1.68 (Q3 2023).
Profit Margins (2024):
NVIDIA: 55.8% (gross 73%, operating 61%).
Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet: >25%.
Apple: High, but not quantified here.
Amazon: Lower, due to high costs.
Tesla: Lowest, impacted by price cuts.
Step 2: Analysis of Trends (Q1 2023–Q4 2024)
NVIDIA: Revenue surged 114% in 2024 ($130.5B), with Q4 2024 at $39.3B (up 78% YoY). EPS grew 147% YoY, driven by AI chip demand (90% margins). Forward P/E of 23 is attractive given growth, down from ~250x in 2023.
Alphabet: Consistent 12-15% revenue growth, low P/E (~20-25x), and PEG (1.5x) suggest value. Strong in search, YouTube, and cloud.
Meta: 22% revenue growth, high margins, and P/E ~25-30x. AI and ad revenue are key drivers.
Amazon: 10-12% growth, with AWS and AI boosting Q4 2024. Higher P/E (~40-50x) reflects growth expectations but lower margins.
Microsoft: 17% revenue growth, AI (Azure) strength, P/E ~30-35x. Stable but less explosive than NVIDIA.
Apple: 5% revenue growth, high margins, P/E ~30-35x. Growth slowed, tied to iPhone and Apple Intelligence.
Tesla: 1% revenue growth, earnings declines, and high P/E (~80-100x). Long-term EV/AI potential but current weakness.
Step 3: Best Buy (Question A)
The best buy balances valuation (low P/E, PEG), growth (revenue/earnings), and risk (fundamentals, market position).
NVIDIA:
Pros: 114% revenue growth, 147% EPS growth, 55.8% margins, forward P/E 23 (lowest among Mag-7), PEG ~1.6x. AI chip dominance (90% share) and Blackwell platform demand are strong.
Cons: Volatility (beta 1.96), export restrictions ($5.5B Q1 2025 charge), and potential AI spending slowdown.
Why Strong: P/E of 23 is compelling for its growth rate, making it undervalued relative to peers.
Alphabet:
Pros: P/E ~20-25x, PEG 1.5x, 12-15% growth, diversified revenue, and high cash flows. Analyst optimism (high StarMine ARM score).
Cons: Regulatory risks (antitrust) and AI competition.
Why Strong: Lowest valuation with solid growth, but less upside than NVIDIA.
Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple: Offer growth but higher P/E ratios (25-50x) and slower growth (5-22%) than NVIDIA. Amazon’s margins and Apple’s slow growth are concerns.
Tesla: High P/E (~80-100x), 1% growth, and earnings declines make it the least attractive.
Best Buy: NVIDIA. Its forward P/E of 23, combined with 114% revenue growth and 147% EPS growth, offers the best value-growth mix. Alphabet is a close second for its lower P/E and stability, but NVIDIA’s upside is unmatched.