By Kate Gibson
With Alcoa Inc. leading the start of the second-quarter earnings
season, analysts say the lack of revenue growth from the aluminum
giant and the other 29 companies that make up the Dow Jones
Industrial Average is a major factor contributing to Wall Street's
lackluster sentiment.
On Thursday, energy shares led modest gains and health care led
sector decliners as Wall Street pulled mildly higher in the
afternoon.
The Dow (DJI) rose 4.76 points to stand at 8,183.1. The S&P
500 (SPX) added 3.12 points to finish at 882.68, while the Nasdaq
Composite (RIXF) gained 5.38 points to 1,752.5.
"Expectations for an eighth consecutive quarter of declining
profits has been out there for a while, and we've seen the (market)
response already built in, in the last week and a half as things
pull back," said Steve Hagenbuckle, managing partner of TerraCap
Partners, a distress real estate private equity fund.
"We'll see a flat to slightly down response in general,"
Hagenbuckle added.
The first Dow component to report results for the quarter, Alcoa
(AA) came in late Wednesday with a narrower-than-expected loss.
.
Since pretty much every company in the country has trimmed costs
during the current recession, positive earnings surprises that stem
from cost-cutting translate into limited upside for stocks,
analysts say.
"As the old saying goes, you can't save your way to prosperity,"
said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at BNY ConvergEx
Group.
Judging from individual company weightings that make up the Dow,
nearly 40% of the blue-chip benchmark is unlikely to show positive
revenue comparisons until 2010, at the earliest, said Colas. The
strategist lists IBM Corp. (IBM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), 3M Co. (MMM)
and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as examples.
Grounded
Of course, revenue growth alone isn't enough to bolster a stock,
said Colas, who cites Boeing Co. (BA), also a Dow components, as a
stock that should have been a top performer this year, since its
"long lead time business model gives excellent revenue and earnings
visibility."
However, the recent news of yet another delay in the rollout of
Boeing's 787 Dreamliner program dented revenue expectations for
2010 and beyond, bringing the stock down from $53 to under $40 a
share. .
On Thursday, shares of the aerospace giant were off 21 cents, or
0.5%, at $39.34.
Looking at the beleaguered financial sector, two Dow members --
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
-- promise to report significant revenue growth after making large
acquisitions.
The past three months, J.P. Morgan Chase shares have advanced
2.8% and are up 6.8% year to date, while shares of Bank of America
have gained nearly 37% during the past three months -- but are off
13% in 2009.
"J.P. Morgan's stock," said Colas, "has fared better than Bank
of America due to investor perceptions of differing levels of
balance-sheet strength and management depth."