Study Shows Islamic State’s Primary Opponent in Syria Is Government Forces, IHS Markit Says
19 April 2017 - 7:00PM
Business Wire
Weakening Syrian government would extend life of the Islamic
State’s caliphate
The Islamic State fought Syrian government forces more than any
other opponent over the past 12 months, according to new analysis
from Conflict Monitor by IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader
in critical information, analytics and solutions.
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Islamic State Territorial Losses Between
January 2015 and 3 April 2017 (Graphic: Business Wire)
Between 1 April 2016 and 31 March 2017, 43 percent of all
Islamic State fighting in Syria was directed against President
Assad’s forces, 17 against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) and the remaining 40 percent involved fighting rival Sunni
opposition groups -- in particular, those who formed part of the
Turkey-backed Euphrates Shield coalition.
“It is an inconvenient reality that any US action taken to
weaken the Syrian government will inadvertently benefit the Islamic
State and other jihadist groups,” said Columb Strack, senior Middle
East analyst at IHS Markit. “The Syrian government is essentially
the anvil to the US-led Coalition’s hammer. While US-backed forces
surround Raqqa, the Islamic State is engaged in intense fighting
with the Syrian government around Palmyra and in other parts of
Homs and Deir al-Zour provinces.”
Any further reduction in the capability of Syria’s already
overstretched forces would reduce their ability to prevent the
Islamic State from pushing out of the desert into the more heavily
populated western Syria, threatening cities like Homs and Damascus,
the analysis said.
“If the Islamic State succeeds in capturing the Syrian
government’s isolated and heavily contested garrison in Deir
al-Zour, the group would have a new major population centre from
which to run the Caliphate,” Strack said. “The capture of Deir
al-Zour, the largest city in eastern Syria, could be a life-line
for the group’s governance project beyond the loss of Mosul and
Raqqa.”
Almost half of original territory lost
Between 1 January 2015 and 3 April 2017, the Islamic State lost
almost 50 percent of its territory. On 1 January 2015, Conflict
Monitor estimated the Islamic State controlled 90,800 km2 in Iraq
and Syria. Now, the Islamic State controls 48,500 km2.
“We have seen Islamic State territorial losses accelerate
significantly in 2017,” Strack said. “Their losses were largely
driven by a greater commitment from the US to back the Syrian
Democratic Forces, but also by major Syrian government advances
east of Aleppo and around Palmyra.”
Between 1 January 2017 and 3 April 2017, the caliphate’s
territory shrank by a further 20 percent to 48,500 km2. The area
they control now is roughly the same size as the Dominican
Republic.
Intelligence cut-off date: 10 April 2017.
Meet Jane’s at the AFCEA 2017 Conference
Jane’s will be exhibiting jointly with Luciad at AFCEA 2017 in
Bonn, Germany from 27 to 28 April. The team will be showing wider
analysis on Iraq through the Luciad platform and how Luciad's
geospatial visualization combined with defense and security data
from Jane's can deliver superior critical information and
insight.
Appointments to view the wider analysis can be made at
ADSEvents@ihs.com or http://connect.luciad.com/AFCEAGermany2017
About Conflict
Monitor
Conflict Monitor by IHS Markit is an open-source intelligence
collection and analysis service, which includes unrivalled data
coverage of the conflict in Iraq and Syria, weekly control maps, as
well as in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis by Jane’s
security experts.
Visit our site to learn more about the service and a free trial:
https://www.ihs.com/products/conflictmonitor.html or get in touch
here.
About IHS Markit
(www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical
information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and
markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers
next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers
in business, finance and government, improving their operational
efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed,
confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business
and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune
Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions.
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respective owners © 2017 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IHS MarkitAmanda Russo, +44
208-544-7827Amanda.Russo@ihsmarkit.comorPress Team+1
303-305-8021press@ihs.com
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