Sweden's Central Bank Cuts Main Interest Rate Further Below Zero -- Update
11 February 2016 - 9:31PM
Dow Jones News
By Charles Duxbury
Sweden's central bank cut its main interest rate even further
below zero on Thursday as it sought to hold down the national
currency to support a recovery in the inflation rate toward a 2%
target.
The bank, known as Sweden's Riksbank, lowered its main
repurchase rate to minus 0.5% from minus 0.35% and said it still
had scope to drop it further if needed.
Markets judged the move as more aggressive than expected and the
Swedish krona weakened against the euro, which rose to 9.59 kronor
from 9.47 kronor.
A rate cut was expected by six of 11 analysts in a Wall Street
Journal survey with five forecasting an unchanged rate. Only two of
the 11 expected a cut of this size with four expecting a smaller
cut.
The Riksbank has been in focus over the past year as one of a
small but growing number of central banks willing to test the
boundaries of how low interest rates can go. Zero or just above was
long seen as the lower bound for rates, but the Riksbank, along
with the Swiss, Danish, European and most recently Japanese central
banks have now all gone lower.
The policy imposes a charge on commercial banks when they place
some types of deposit with the central bank. The aim is to
encourage banks to lend, which stimulates the economy and pushes
inflation higher.
The adoption of the policy also shows how central banks are
looking to their currencies as a way of boosting prices. Negative
interest rates in a country discourage foreign investors from
holding that country's currency and that pushes the value of the
currency down. That in turn pushes import prices up, giving the
inflation rate a further boost.
The Riksbank's decision to cut interest rates was a consequence
of its new lower forecast for inflation, also published Thursday.
The Riksbank cut its forecast for consumer price inflation this
year to 0.7% from 1.3%. The bank hasn't hit its 2% target for four
years and would have had difficulty explaining why it wasn't acting
now in the face of lower expectations for prices. Among other
things, lower energy and commodity prices have kept prices in
Sweden low. Inflation in December was 0.1% in annual terms.
"The upturn in inflation is still not on a firm footing, as is
illustrated by the unexpectedly weak outcomes in recent months,"
the Riksbank said.
One question being asked is how low the Riksbank can go before
banks start moving into cash rather than suffer the cost of
depositing with the central bank. The Riksbank made clear it
doesn't see minus 0.5% as the floor.
"There is still scope to cut the repo rate further," the
Riksbank said in its statement.
A further problem for Sweden is that, unlike Japan and parts of
the eurozone, the economy doesn't need the stimulus. With growth of
3% and rapidly rising house prices, concerns that a bubble might be
forming are growing.
The Riksbank called on the Financial Supervisory Authority,
which has the lead on financial stability, to do more to reduce
levels of private debt, which has been rising in line with house
prices.
The decision to cut interest rates wasn't unanimous with two of
the central bank's six monetary-policy board members voting against
the move and advocating an unchanged rate.
The bank left its bond-buying target unchanged at 200 billion
kronor ($23.9 billion).
Write to Charles Duxbury at charles.duxbury@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 11, 2016 05:16 ET (10:16 GMT)
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