Stumbling Global Economies Fan Recession Fears -- 2nd Update
23 August 2019 - 8:40AM
Dow Jones News
By Josh Mitchell and Jason Douglas
Manufacturing activity is falling in most of the world's
advanced economies, another sign that a deepening global slowdown
is weighing on the U.S. expansion.
An index of factory activity in August declined in the U.S.,
Japan, Germany and the eurozone, IHS Markit said Thursday. The U.S.
decline marked the first manufacturing contraction there since
September 2009, according to the firm's surveys of purchasing
managers. The gauges fell in Italy and the U.K. in July, the firm
said recently.
The IHS manufacturing indexes are imprecise because they are
based on surveys and combine figures including product sales,
inventory levels and commodity prices to come up with an index of
factory "activity," designed to broadly assess the sector's
health.
But the reports comport with other warning signs that have
flashed recently about the U.S. and global economies.
"It's a reflection of growing global pessimism among purchasing
managers, " said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US, a
consulting firm. He said their darkening mood "is clearly
associated" with the trade dispute between U.S. and China. "Further
escalation of the trade war risks spillover in the service and
household sectors, which could signal a much larger risk of
recession in 2020," he added.
While government figures suggest the U.S. and global economies
continue to expand, Thursday's data added to growing evidence of a
deepening slowdown.
The International Monetary Fund last month said a sharp
deceleration of global trade driven by trade tensions was slowing
the global economy more than it expected in the spring. It forecast
global growth, adjusted for inflation, would fall to 3.2% this
year, from 3.6% last year and 3.8% in 2017.
The recent decline in U.S. factory activity appears to be tied
to three factors, Mr. Brusuelas said: softening demand for motor
vehicles; weaker sales at aircraft maker Boeing Co.; and the
U.S.-China trade dispute.
The factory malaise appeared to weaken the broader U.S. economy.
IHS released a "composite output index" -- reflecting production by
manufacturing and service companies alike -- that showed the
record-long expansion losing momentum. That index fell to 50.9 in
August from 52.6 a month earlier and, along with May, equaling the
lowest since February 2016. A reading above 50 signals expansion,
while a result below that level indicates contraction.
IHS said a measure of U.S. job creation among the companies it
surveyed fell to the lowest level since 2010. "Meanwhile,
confidence in relation to the year-ahead business outlook dropped
for the seventh month running to its lowest since this index began
in July 2012," it said.
Total output in Australia shrank in August for the first time in
five months, according to a separate survey released Thursday by
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and IHS Markit.
Economic activity in the eurozone rose at a muted pace in
August, as a pickup in France offset continued sluggishness in
Germany, the currency bloc's largest economy.
One bright spot was Japan, where activity expanded at the
fastest pace in eight months, according to the surveys.
Figures released earlier this month showed economic output in
Germany contracted in the second quarter, while a report on factory
output in China came in lower than expected, triggering market
volatility.
The reports came as major central banks are preparing to provide
more stimulus measures to bolster growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve
cut interest rates in July, partly in response to cooling global
growth, and is likely to continue lowering them this year.
The minutes of Fed officials' July meeting, released Wednesday,
showed policy makers believed uncertainty surrounding the Trump
administration's trade policy wasn't likely to let up soon,
creating a "persistent headwind" for the U.S. economic outlook.
And minutes of the European Central Bank's recent policy
meeting, released Thursday, gave a further signal that it would
launch a big stimulus package next month, which could include rate
cuts and asset purchases, in an effort to arrest the region's
economic slowdown.
Write to Josh Mitchell at joshua.mitchell@wsj.com and Jason
Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 22, 2019 18:25 ET (22:25 GMT)
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