By V. Phani Kumar
Japanese exporters plunged Monday as the yen jumped to an
eight-month high against the U.S. dollar, sparking fresh fears that
repatriated earnings of automobile and electronics companies could
take a hit.
The yen's latest rally came after Japanese finance minister
reiterated the government's continued unwillingness to intervene in
the currency market.
In early Asian trading, the U.S. dollar fell as low as 88.23
yen, a level it hasn't seen since January 21, according to FactSet
Research data. The dollar hit a 13-year low of 87.10 yen that
month, according to EBS. More recently, the dollar was buying 89.08
yen, down from 89.61 yen in late New York trading Friday.
The yen also soared against other currencies, with the euro
recently changing hands at 129.96 yen, down from 131.70 yen late
Friday. The British pound slumped to 140.78 yen from 143.00 yen
Friday, and the Australian dollar slid to 76.67 yen from 77.81 yen
Friday.
Automakers were hurt the most Monday, with shares of Honda Motor
Co. (HMC) slumping 5.3%, Nissan Motor Co. (NSANY) skidding 6.2% and
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) sliding 3.8%.
The steep fall in exporter shares reflected concerns that many
of them, which had assumed an exchange rate of 90 yen to 95 yen
against the U.S. dollar when they made their annual forecasts,
might miss those targets as the stronger yen erodes the value of
their overseas earnings.
But some analysts remained positive about automobile makers.
"While Japanese auto stocks have weakened since August,
reflecting the impact of yen appreciation to [90 yen to a U.S.
dollar], there is growing evidence of U.S.-led earnings recovery,"
Goldman Sachs analysts Kota Yuzawa and Yuichiro Isayama wrote in a
report.
"We see improvement in both U.S. individual consumption and the
sales financing environment, which has shackled sales," they wrote,
adding that stronger-than-expected production volumes at Toyota
were likely to drive analysts' consensus forecasts.
Among other exporters, shares of Nintendo Co. (NTDOY) dropped
3.4% and Toshiba Corp. fell 5.2%.
In wider Asian market action, Japan's Nikkei 225 Average dropped
2.4% to 10,023.99, China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.2%, Hong
Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slid
1.3% and South Korea's Kospi shed 1.1%.
'Not abnormal'
Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said Monday that recent
movements in the U.S. dollar/yen exchange rate are "not abnormal"
at this point, suggesting he still isn't worried about the Japanese
currency's rise, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Fujii also reiterated that "foreign exchange dumping" to defend
Japanese exporters would be the wrong policy for the government to
take, and that artificially influencing foreign exchange rates
would be "a mistake."
Analysts have attributed the yen's rally also to seasonal,
end-of-quarter strength as exporters repatriated their overseas
earnings.
Fuji reportedly made similar comments Friday, echoing comments
he has consistently made since being appointed Finance Minister
earlier this month in the new government of Prime Minister Yukio
Hatoyama.
Despite Fujii's stated opposition to intervention, some analysts
were skeptical the government can really afford to wait much longer
to intervene if the yen's strength continued.
"In our opinion, even though Fujii has proven to be more
supportive of a stronger than weaker yen, political pressure on the
new government may force them to intervene prematurely," Kathy
Lien, director for currency research, wrote in a note to
clients.
Lien, however, cautioned selling in the dollar-yen pair could
accelerate "if there are any disappointments in economic data next
week."
Fujii's Friday comments "are probably an indication that he
wouldn't intervene even if the dollar breaks below 90 yen," Eisuke
Sakakibara, who served as vice finance minister for international
affairs in 1997-1999, said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires
Friday.
Sakakibara was also quoted as saying that the finance minister
would likely take fall below 80 yen as abnormal.
"These comments are about as clear a buy signal as is likely to
be heard," said Societe Generale's Asia forex and rates strategist
Patrick Bennett.