By Carla Mozee
Mexican equities slid Monday, leading a downturn among Latin
American markets as investors assessed the impact and scope that a
deadly outbreak of swine flu will have on the region.
Mexican stocks also remained lower, but were off their worst
levels of the session, after a 6.0 earthquake hit 200 miles south
of Mexico City, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Mexico's IPC fell 4.3% to 21,593 in recent trade, and gave up as
much as 5% during the session. Shares of Mexican market heavyweight
America Movil (AMX) dropped 3.2% % and lost nearly 9% earlier in
the session. None of the IPC's components were trading higher.
Brazil's Bovespa index lost 2% and Chile's IPSA fell 0.9%.
Argentina's Merval turned lower, slipping 0.8% as shares of market
heavyweight Tenaris (TS) lost grip of gains to fall 0.3%.
The swine-flu outbreak, which started in Mexico, has killed 103
there, and officials have shut down museums, government-run
theaters and other public places, as well as have distributed
surgical masks, in an effort to help limit the spread of the
illness.
"Unfortunately, Mexico is having this problem in the biggest
city in terms of population," said Alfredo Coutino, director of
Latin America at Moody's Economy.com, in a telephone interview
Monday.
Mexico City makes up 20% the country's gross domestic product,
and GDP was $990 billion in 2008, he said.
The swine-flu outbreak comes at a vulnerable time for Mexico,
which is already struggling in recession, largely stemming from the
weak economy of its largest trading partner, the United States.
Meanwhile, Monday's earthquake shook tall buildings in Mexico
City, according to media reports, but no injuries or significant
damage have been reported.
In Mexico City, shares of retailing giant Wal-Mart de Mexico
(WMMVY) tumbled 6.5%, beverage maker Femsa (FMX) fell 5.4%, brewer
Grupo Modelo dropped 9.2%.
Shares of airport operators fronted the decline on the IPC.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) dropped 9.3% and Grupo
Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) tumbled 14%.
In Sao Paulo, shares of air carrier TAM (TAM) fell 5.2% and
rival Gol (GOL) lost 1.6%.
"Considering that the swine flu could affect demand in the
airline industry, we believe that TAM will likely report weaker
operational results compared with those of GOL, given TAM's higher
exposure to international business," wrote transportation analyst
Victor Mizusaki at Itaú Securities in a note Monday.
As well, fears about animal-borne diseases usually reduce demand
for protein in the early stages of an outbreak, said Itau
Securities' consumer goods analyst Juliana Rozenbaum.
Brazilian meatpacker JBS would be the most likely affected of
meat suppliers, she wrote, "because almost 12% of its sales are
U.S.-domestic market pork sales," through Swift Foods Co., which it
acquired in 2007.
JBS shares slumped 9.5%.
Itaú expects rivals Sadia (SDA) and Perdigão (PDA) "to suffer
little because we do not expect industrialized pork volumes in
Brazil (ham and sausages, among others) to drop as a consequence,
especially if the country is not infected."
Shares of Sadia rose 6.6% and Perdigão rose 0.2%.
Mexican currency hit
Mexico's currency was also hit as swine-flu concerns grew,
leaving the U.S. dollar up more than 3% against the peso.
While illness-related deaths have spooked some investors,
Ignacio Goni, head of Latin American research at Riedel Research
Group, said Monday that others have used the outbreak as an excuse
to take profits off the table, noting a strong run in Brazilian
equities in recent week.
Last week, the Bovespa logged its seven weekly win in a row.
"I'm seeing the financial markets react a bit too quickly," said
Ignacio Goni, head of Latin American research at Riedel Research
Group. The outbreak is a concern, "but at this point, it's too
early to [determine] the scale and the consequences," on the
Mexican economy and the region as a whole.
Other factors were also at work in the markets on Monday. UBS
downgraded Mexican stocks because of valuation, and investors were
also watching for a wave of quarterly results from some of the
region's biggest companies this week.
America Movil's first-quarter results are due later Monday.
The flu outbreak and its impact on the economy may be a
consideration of Mexican central bank officials when they released
their updated forecast for GDP and inflation on Wednesday.
Government officials currently expect a 2.8% contraction in
activity this year.