By Jon Sindreu
LONDON--Economists expect the European Central Bank to hold off
on sovereign bond purchases next week, despite further dangers of
deflation haunting the eurozone.
The bank's governing council meeting Thursday--the final one of
2014--is likely to convey a more dovish message and lower inflation
expectations, analysts say, but no new measures are expected until
next year.
The central bank has set in motion schemes to purchase covered
bonds and asset-backed securities, but weaker prices put pressure
on its President Mario Draghi to start buying sovereign bonds as
well, a policy known as quantitative easing. In a speech this week,
ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio opened the door to such
purchases in 2015.
"We must wait to see if ECB President Mario Draghi will repeat
his readiness to start buying government bonds if the inflation
outlook deteriorates further," said Zach Witton, economist at
Moody's Analytics, in a research note Friday.
Purchasing managers' index figures for the manufacturing and
services sectors are expected to show economic activity in the core
eurozone countries--Germany, France and Italy--remained broadly
flat in November.
Date GMT Indicator Period Forecast Previous
Dec 01 0945 Italy PMI manufacturing Nov 49.5 (8) 49.0
Dec 01 0950 France PMI manufacturing final Nov 47.6 (11) 47.6p/48.5
Dec 01 0955 Germany PMI manufacturing final Nov 50.0 (20) 50.0p/51.4
Dec 01 1000 Italy GDP final 3Q -0.1%QQ (15) -0.1%QQp/-0.2%QQ
Dec 01 1000 Italy GDP final 3Q -0.4%YY (13) -0.4%YYp/-0.3%YY
Dec 01 1000 Eurozone PMI manufacturing final Nov 50.4 (24) 50.4p/50.6
Dec 02 1100 Eurozone PPI Oct -0.3%MM (8) +0.2%MM
Dec 02 1100 Eurozone PPI Oct -1.3%YY (12) -1.4%YY
Dec 03 0945 Italy PMI services Nov 50.3 (7) 50.8
Dec 03 0950 France PMI services final Nov 48.8 (11) 48.8p/48.3
Dec 03 0955 Germany PMI services final Nov 52.1 (19) 52.1p/54.4
Dec 03 1000 Eurozone PMI services final Nov 51.3 (24) 51.3p/52.3
Dec 03 1000 Eurozone PMI composite final Nov 51.4 (13) 51.4p/51.1
Dec 03 1100 Eurozone Retail sales Oct +0.5%MM (12) -1.3%MM
Dec 04 1345 Eurozone Main refinancing rate Dec 0.05% (23) 0.05%
Dec 05 0800 Germany Industrial orders Oct +0.5%MM (26) +0.8%MM
Dec 05 1100 Eurozone GDP 2nd flash 3Q +0.2%QQ (23) +0.2%QQp/+0.1%QQ
Dec 05 1100 Eurozone GDP 2nd flash 3Q +0.8%YY (19) +0.8%YYp/+0.8%YY
(Figures in parentheses refer to number of economists surveyed. p = preliminary)
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com