Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises Above Zero
23 September 2019 - 11:01PM
Dow Jones News
By Dave Sebastian
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a measure of economic
activity in the U.S., rose to positive territory in August after
sinking below zero in July.
For August, the index was 0.10, up from -0.41 the month before.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said all four broad categories
that comprise the index increased from July, but three of the four
categories negatively contributed.
Production-related indicators contributed 0.16 in August, up
from -0.26 in July. Industrial production rose 0.6% in August after
decreasing 0.2% in July, though the Institute for Supply
Management's Manufacturing Composite Index decreased to 49.1 in
August from 51.2 in July. In August, the sales, orders and
inventories category ticked up to -0.02 from -0.07 in July.
Employment-related indicators contributed -0.02 in August, up
from -0.05 in July. The personal-consumption and housing category
inched up to -0.02 from -0.03 in the previous month. Total nonfarm
payrolls increased by 130,000 in August, lower than the rise of
159,000 in July.
Eighty-five indicators make up the index, and of those, 44
positively contributed and 41 negatively contributed. A total of 52
of the 85 indicators improved from the prior month, while 30
deteriorated and three were unchanged. Fourteen of the 85
contributors worsened, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI-MA3, which the Chicago Fed says can show a more
consistent view of economic growth, was -0.06. The three-month
moving average was up from -0.14 the previous month.
The Chicago Fed said the CFNAI Diffusion index increased up to
-0.12 in August from -0.2 in July. That three-month moving average
shows how much a change in the monthly index spans across its more
than 80 indicators, the Chicago Fed said.
A CFNAI-MA3 reading of more than -0.70 and a CFNAI Diffusion
Index reading of more than -0.35 have historically indicated
economic expansion, the Chicago Fed said.
Write to Dave Sebastian at dave.sebastian@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2019 08:46 ET (12:46 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.