New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift Slightly in Q1 Despite Affordability Challenges, According to Edmunds
29 March 2024 - 12:03AM
The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,772,894 new
cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of
2024, which will be a 6.0% increase from the first quarter of 2023
but a 3.1% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
“New car sales continued in the right direction in Q1, but given
the notable rebound in new vehicle inventory, they arguably could
have been a bit stronger,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of
insights. “In this era of sky-high interest rates, affordability is
the name of the game, and consumers are laser-focused on monthly
payments. The automakers that can offer compelling vehicles at
competitive price points will see the most success.”
Edmunds analysts note that Honda and Toyota are two of the
automakers rising to the top of car shoppers’ lists in the current
market, with the largest expected lifts in market share (see table
below) and the fastest-selling vehicles in Q1. According to Edmunds
data, days to turn (DTT)* for Honda and Toyota dropped to 22 days
and 27 days, respectively, compared to the industry average of 50
days.
According to Edmunds experts, a glut of prior model year
vehicles is sitting on dealership lots: In March 2024, 13% of
vehicles sold were 2023 model year, which represents the highest
proportion of prior model year vehicles sold that Edmunds has on
record since March 2020, when 2019 model year vehicles made up 16%
of new car sales. In March 2019, 13% of new vehicles sold were 2018
model year.
“We’ve officially come full circle: It’s time for car shoppers
to dust off their old, pre-pandemic playbooks because automakers
are falling back into familiar traps of aging inventory and
prevalent discounting,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of
insights. “But shoppers need to temper their expectations as to the
brands that they’re going to find deals on. Savings won’t be
discovered easily from those automakers thriving in this
environment but rather from the ones with the most outdated
products and generally higher price points.”
*How many days a vehicle sits on a dealership lot before being
sold
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
SALES VOLUME |
2024 Q1
Forecast |
2023 Q1
Sales |
2023 Q4
Sales |
Change
from 2023 Q1 |
Change
from 2023 Q4 |
GM |
598,971 |
603,395 |
625,498 |
-0.7% |
-4.2% |
Toyota |
570,485 |
471,132 |
631,680 |
21.1% |
-9.7% |
Ford |
506,818 |
475,906 |
487,847 |
6.5% |
3.9% |
Hyundai/Kia |
377,131 |
382,359 |
402,339 |
-1.4% |
-6.3% |
Stellantis |
338,333 |
370,157 |
345,806 |
-8.6% |
-2.2% |
Honda |
336,320 |
284,509 |
337,511 |
18.2% |
-0.4% |
Nissan |
247,647 |
235,818 |
201,756 |
5.0% |
22.7% |
VW/Audi |
122,837 |
117,057 |
157,469 |
4.9% |
-22.0% |
Industry |
3,772,894 |
3,557,846 |
3,894,650 |
6.0% |
-3.1% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share |
2024 Q1
Forecast |
2023 Q1
Sales |
2023 Q4
Sales |
Change
from 2023 Q1 |
Change
from 2023 Q4 |
GM |
15.9% |
17.0% |
16.1% |
-6.4% |
-1.2% |
Toyota |
15.1% |
13.2% |
16.2% |
14.2% |
-6.8% |
Ford |
13.4% |
13.4% |
12.5% |
0.4% |
7.2% |
Hyundai/Kia |
10.0% |
10.7% |
10.3% |
-7.0% |
-3.2% |
Stellantis |
9.0% |
10.4% |
8.9% |
-13.8% |
1.0% |
Honda |
8.9% |
8.0% |
8.7% |
11.5% |
2.9% |
Nissan |
6.6% |
6.6% |
5.2% |
-1.0% |
26.7% |
VW/Audi |
3.3% |
3.3% |
4.0% |
-1.0% |
-19.5% |
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###
Talia James-Armand
Edmunds
310-491-8738
pr@edmunds.com