Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) Options

Ram, it was the substantial increase in U.S. Q4 revenue vs. Q3, with lower script count that we are trying to reconcile. Q4 was almost 50% higher than Q3, if my math is correct. But the $$ increase from Q3 to Q4 was almost identical to the $$ decrease from Q2 to Q3 (~$13.5M).

It just makes me think that there were fewer weeks in Q3 and extra weeks in Q4. I was wondering if it's just possible that there are timing differences in when they recognized revenue.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175922232

I don't disagree Zip, if unable to find a buyer. Just disappointed that we heard nothing about it yesterday. Everything with Amarin seems to be down the road.

Rose...I agree that a BP buy out would be preferable...but if no reasonable BO offer appears, this could be a back up strategy...I believe a relatively short study on the new formulation of EPA would be successful....and a win would be great for everyone.

Not surprised at all. JRoon and I are just questioning the nonsensical (obviously there is something we don't know or understand) qtr to qtr sales figures for the US.

Why would we be surprised at US sales dropping Y/Y? We don't do any level of promotion in the US...... it's not worth the expense when .50 cents of every new dollar would go to the generics.

And the difference in revenue seems more than just a week here and there. I mean 50% higher revenue from Q3 to Q4. If something like that was real and explained you would think the stock would have shot up 25% at least.

RMB, I suspect that there is some inconsistency in the reporting of script counts from Symphony (in terms of timing).

But I still can't understand the revenue splits from quarter to quarter. I can only assume a timing discrepancy in terms of what weeks are included in each quarter.

TC11, thanks for weighing in. It may be too soon for Spain's numbers to show growth. Q1 will be more telling.
Based on the recent Grant of patent (1/15/25) listed in the European Patent registry they are moving forward with exploring the FDC EP4338805 and EP4342546 patents which could account for the non-clinical R&D expenses increase. 2025 will be pivotal for Amarin/Mochida collaborations.

https://register.epo.org/espacenet/regviewer?AP=24152348&CY=EP&LG=en&DB=REG

Yep, it doesn't make much sense. Something an analyst should have questioned.

Obviously something that has not been explained. For instance the jump in scripts from Q1 to Q2????

Too granular I guess looking qtr to qtr. What is clear is that US sales dropping y/y.

When there was no buyout after the Reduce-It results in 2018, we all should have been wary. When we were warned that now they were playing in the big boy cardio universe we should have listened as BP only wants high priced, high profit injectables and pills. Then we were blindsided by the Du debacle and since then in a death spiral. Yesterday I sold all of my remaining shares that have been whittled down to worthless since I first bought in 2012. I failed to realize a basic tenet of investing. Picks get dirty, hogs get slaughtered! How I wish I sold after RI. Shame on me. GLTA, I hope you find some success but I am now done.

The company would have definitely said something if scripts had really jumped in the qtr

They listed script count in the 10K. They went from 705,000 in Q3 to 663,000 in Q4.

Q1 - 726,000
Q2 - 815,000
Q3 - 705,000
Q4 - 663,000

It would appear we will dip below 50% market share in Q4 as well.

EDIT: Also, if we believe their script and revenue numbers, then average script price was $43 in Q3 and $66 in Q4. What sense does that make?

I also wonder if there is some sort of lag between timing of script counts by Symphony Health, versus how Amarin recognizes revenue.

US Scripts................Average Price
Q1.....726,000..........66.25
Q2.....815,000..........53.74
Q3.....705,000..........43.40
Q4.....663,000..........66.66
YR.....2,909,000.......57.30

For this to make any sense Q1 EU would absolutely have to be great.  If not then there is a foul smell in Denmark. 

And you are right about the US jump from Q3 to Q4.  The company would have definitely said something if scripts had really jumped in the qtr

CapiBeer

One thing is for certain it will be way easier to manipulate the stocks price when we go to 20 million shares outstanding. The question is will it be up or down !

Michael

Trying to wrap my head around a few things from the financials. First, does this look correct? (especially US revenues)

..................U.S...................EU...................RoW................Other/Licensing Fee.......Total
Q1 2024....48,100,000.......1,900,000.........5,200,000.........1,300,000.....................56,500,000
Q2 2024....43,800,000.......3,500,000.........200,000............20,000,000...................67,500,000
Q3 2024....30,600,000.......4,300,000.........6,900,000.........500,000........................42,300,000
Q4 2024....44,200,000.......4,000,000........11,900,000........2,200,000.....................60,100,000
Total.........166,700,000.....13,700,000........24,200,000.......24,000,000...................228,600,000

I'm trying to understand two things:

1. How did we go from $30M US revs in Q3 to $44M US revs Q4, when script count went DOWN? Is this just a timing issue between quarters? The average between the two quarters would seem to make sense (~37.5M avg).

2. WHAT is going on in Europe?? How are revenues flat/down from Q3 to Q4? That seems illogical. Is this again some sort of timing issue, and Q1 will look great?

EDIT: Sorry for the formatting. Can't seem to make it look better than that.

Zip, the GIA experiment was tried here before and it failed miserably, so I wouldn't recommend persuing that path.  There is a reason that the top 50 selling drugs are in yhe hands of BP. 

Amarin was strapped for cash when they started the Reduce it study...They went into debt and mortgaged their main asset, their EPA patent, in order to get the necessary funds to do the study and have it approved by the FDA.

Now skip to the present time.....Reduce It was very successful and Amarin stock price went up into the mid 20's before the Hikma patent debacle....
Amarin is in a much better financial position than it was prior to the RI study...They presently have no debt, a Vascepa patent for CVD, and an active business...Amarin can, if absolutely necessary, acquire some debt to add to their present funds...and use these assets to develop ET LE EPA and then market it themselves in the U.S. and ROW...while keeping Vascepa as a generic drug.

Probably trying to protect against a class-action lawsuit.

ITs booming its almost 42 pennies Looks like Momma is cooking up that pink sheet pudding

It is a 50 page document

Yes I did

Did anyone save the 11/14/24 Investor Day presentation?

They have scrubbed it from their website, and it also no longer appears in the SEC EDGAR database, which is even more concerning to me.

I had been referring back to that presentation numerous times, and suddenly it's gone.

I did e-mail PR and IR, with no response.

Hey there Nukem..... be careful what you wish for. This would reduce CV events and put a huge dent in our V markets

How about RFK? He's starting out good. Going after GRAS food additives. Generally Recognized as Safe by the Food Industry who established them in the first place with FDA approval. Kind of like the fox watching the henhouse. Why? Because the FDA was so overworked they left it up to food manufacturers to establish, hence the birth of GRAS. Things like FD&C Red, Yellow, Blue (food dyes), how about hydrogenated oils, preservatives? Get this stuff out of our food. The list goes on and on. 

TC11...At the Q4 2024 C.C. I was expecting an announcement or, at least a question, about a new formulation of EPA...i.e. some potential bright light on an otherwise dark C.C.

Amarin has the patent to LR Et EPA...EPA has been proven to be a safe and effective Rx for CVD in the U.S. and ROW...A BP could do the necessary studies for LR ET EPA, which IMO have a 90% chance of success...and use this patented product to recapture the U.S. market.

$AMRN Good Morning my Friends. Here’s my quick take on yesterday’s CC & PR:

1. I believe the $20:1 r/s is a strategy to induce HF’s into investing (most require at least $5), but most importantly, I believe it’s a tactic for appealing to BP’s for M&A. The optics of a sub $1 stock for M&A is not attractive.

2. In that regard I believe negotiations are already being conducted behind closed doors. I think the most likely suitors are:

a. Novartis: Amarin has been noticed rubbing shoulders with Novartis in Spain, and Italy and I believe they would love to control the Residual CVD Market
b. Novo Nordisk needs an anti-inflammatory CV drug to complement Ozempic’s CV benefit.
c. AstraZeneca needs to protect Brilinta from generics.

3. Look for new data to drop at ACC 2025 in April, news from France? More clarity on China, and maybe the LR-eTEPA patent will be approved.

I believe the tides are shifting and patience is needed. It might be prudent to trim large positions for investments elsewhere to build dry powder for later??
GL2A.

Anyone who invests in another bio after being involved with this shitco has a screw loose.

They were never going to be delisted. You actually thought that management will push for delisting vs a reverse split? I told you there is 0% chance of delisting. You are either ignorant or have another agenda here. Maybe you can't move on from a loss and will bash here for years to come.

Considering that we recently traded as low as 300k shares in a day it's good to see a 165,000 share bid at .41 this early. I know someone that will be buying 100k shares next few days and so will I. I feel like a repeat of post adcom here but the wait will only be 1 to 2 years vs. 6 years. Can't wait to hear all the bs from the bashers here.

Your advice is probably right but let me see if I can answer the question.

1) People who bought or started buying or holding at much higher levels probably get the feeling like what is the point of selling now considering having been in it for so long. Not saying that this is the correct thing but it is a psychological phenomenon that some of us are dealing with.
2) The devil you know vs the devil you don't. The company has an FDA approved product and beginning to get into markets around the world. Versus trying to sell, take the money and buy into another stock trying to recoup this investment. To recoup this investment would require putting that money to work in riskier areas, like pre-clinical companies that not only have to produce successful trials but then maneuver FDA approval (assuming we are talking bios) or high tech stocks which can be quite risky as we have seen in the last couple of weeks.
3) The stock is trading at not quite but almost half of cash on hand, with no debt. You would think it could be auctioned off for at least $1 a share. Unfortunately, management can continue, collect their fat salaries, and just slowly drain the company.

Over the last year or a little more, the equation here has boiled down to whether EU sales can ramp faster than the drop of sales here in the US. Unfortunately up until now, it does not appear to be so. I think for someone buying the stock here at this price and if they are young and have the time to hold for a good amount of time, it may turn out to be a good opportunity. For some of us, that are old, with a very short time horizon, your suggestion may be the best alternative.

Why do people waste their time (and money) on this stock? Let it go, and move on to other investments.

Two things I picked up on the 10-Q:
1. European sales fell from $4.3m in Q3 2024 to $4.0m in Q4 - this is concerning and I don’t understand fully the statement “all European markets saw and increase in in-market demand”, so maybe it’s a timing issue around distribution and recognition of income. But Europe, especially Spain should be ramping up.

2. Non-clinical R&D expenses increased from $1.2m PY to $2.5m in Q4. Given everything else is being cut it was good to see spend in this area increase: ongoing experiments further exploring the potential biological activities of IPE. Hopefully it revolves around new formulations.

He did not say anything about chopping C of G in half.

“You have no idea of the API supply contracts AMRN has signed in order to delay / frustrate the entry of the generics . “

So till now you were taking pages out of Nissen black book and playing along. First mineral oil, then another trial for real world data.

Now you have taken a page out of the generics black book. Or May be you were a fly on the wall when Amarin mgmt was discussing API procurement strategy. Wow !!!!

While Denner’s intent for Amrn continues to be mystery for shareholders on this board, your intent on this board remains to be a bigger mystery.

Correction noted. No apology needed.

Wow, the President must be aware of Amarin. Not all good though because he says the US govt should have been placing a huge tariff on these Irish pharmas if they want to sell in the US:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-world/trump-claims-irelands-tax-system-lured-us-pharma-threatens-escalate-eu-trade-war

Correction to my previous post; Stock Price is part of Market Cap calculation. Market Cap is Stock Price multiplied by Outstanding shares. In Amarin's case it's .40 cents times 411M shares, $164.4 Million.

Market Cap is not equal to Price. Price is not even contained in the definition of Market Cap. Market Cap is.... drum roll.... Stock "Price" times shares outstanding. Wow. I can tell you failed your Finance Class. Of course you're probably a broker at Dewey, Cheatum and How. 

You're wrong, look it up 

They were going to he delisted only a rs saved them. They basically were delisted without this horrible rs.They were never going get it over a buck themselves. Read the below and learn this is when you buy. And sarissa is not buying now they want it much lower first. You are way to early buying today. Trust me I learned this lesson once before

Chromosome, The time to buy AMRN is when
Denner/Sarissa acquires more shares, and/or
when AMRN initiates a share buyback. The

HammerTime !

You were wrong about delisting ans you are wrong again. Lol....calling for 4 dollars with an 80mill market cap. Hahahahaha

Chromosome, The time to buy AMRN is when
Denner/Sarissa acquires more shares, and/or
when AMRN initiates a share buyback. The
problem with revenues is that only a BP can
really move the needle. So far, Denner has not
found a BP to acquire AMRN. Will he be able
to find a buyer before it is too late? Maybe
Denner can interest a BP with the New Formulation.
If the New Formulation has any value to BP I would
prefer to have a BP develop and run with it rather
than have AMRN attempt another GIA disaster.

Nukem, this analysis is not correct. Price/Sales is calculated by dividing the market cap by sales. A reverse split does not change the market cap, which is the price/share times the total number of shares. The total number of shares will be divided by 20 but the price per share (all else being equal) will multiply by 20. Per Yahoo stats, the current Price/Sales ratio is about 0.80.

Kiwi, I think a sequential comparison vs Q3 24 may be more apt where they did $30 million in US product revenue and to increase that to 44 and change ain’t bad, albeit they had to fine up margin to drive volume. Another encouraging point was they are already selling in China to private hospitals and OOP payers, in the process seeding the market. Once public insurance is approved for the 2026 year, there will be good awareness and need for the product.
I agree, short term not a great situation, but they should be able to break even in 2026. Just my opinion.

You can have them. I'll come back in late April and buy back in for half what I sold them to you for and can probably triple it on another stock in the next three months. It's called being smart and understanding what reverse splits do. Your just chasing bad money pre split. Your 40 cent buys will probably be down 50% two weeks after the split.

Re chopping SG&A in half and COGS You have no idea of the API supply contracts AMRN has signed in order to delay / frustrate the entry of the generics .
These supply contracts come with penalties

Payment for Outstanding Obligations:
Most supply agreements require the terminating party to pay for any goods already produced or in production at the time of cancellation. For example, if Amarin issued a purchase order for API and then canceled, it might be liable for the cost of materials sourced or batches manufactured up to that point. This could include raw materials (e.g., omega-3 intermediates) or completed API batches that meet quality specifications.

Minimum Purchase Commitment Shortfalls:
Amarin’s agreements, such as those with Chemport or Equateq, often include minimum annual purchase requirements tied to exclusivity provisions. For instance, historical data suggests Amarin committed to purchases ranging from $5 million to $15 million annually with Chemport, contingent on regulatory approval of the API. If Amarin cancels before meeting these minimums, it might owe a penalty equal to the shortfall—essentially compensating the supplier for reserved manufacturing capacity that goes unused.

Termination Fees or Liquidated Damages:
Contracts may specify a fixed termination fee or liquidated damages to cover the supplier’s lost profits or sunk costs (e.g., facility expansions like Chemport’s capacity increase to 400 metric tons of API annually). This could be a percentage of the remaining contract value or a flat amount negotiated upfront. For example, if Amarin terminates early, it might owe a portion of the anticipated revenue the supplier expected over the contract term.

Reimbursement for Investments:
Suppliers often invest in infrastructure or process validation to meet Amarin’s needs (e.g., Chemport’s facility expansion or Slanmhor’s collaboration with DSM/Novasep). Cancellation could trigger a clause requiring Amarin to reimburse these costs, especially if the investments were made specifically for Vascepa production and can’t be repurposed for other clients.


Kiwi

This was not meant to be a "go it alone" play with Sarissa. It is a small one drug company and needs a Big Pharma to buy it and attach it to its existing European sales channels. Deploy the buyback, eliminate all R&D, chop SG&A in half, and start an auction.

Yep ...U get to add them to these
Bullrunner2
Re: ramfan60 post# 433134
Friday, February 14, 2025 10:04:01 AM
Post# of 433839
I have 205k shares now ave .57. Also bringing my followers into amrn one by one.

Congrats ..I'm sure your " followers " are thrilled

Kiwi

Re what others think ?
Did anyone read the financials ?
U.S. net product revenue was $44.2 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024 compared to $64.9 million in the corresponding period of 2023.

European net product revenue was $4.0 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024 compared to $1.5 million in the corresponding period of 2023.

Rest of World (RoW) net product revenue was $11.9 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024 compared to $4.2 million in the corresponding period of 2023.

Revenue declining sharply in the US with meager gains in the EU /UK and much of ROW being from selling product for launch's .

Glad I bailed on this when the CFO left .......ALWAYS sell when a CFO leaves to pursue other opportunities . He certainly didn't want to be around for this .
Good luck to those who still hold . Wish it had turned out better .
Kiwi

Chromosome...Also, BP's would have a tough time explaining to their BP investors why they were interested in buying Amarin ...No matter how excellent the company's potential is...a stock price of less than a buck does not exude respect....the BP's would have a tough time explaining that it was an excellent deal.