Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) Options

Chrome, yes, that was my exact thought. Either they didn't have enough time for a thoughtful submission, or maybe didn't even submit at all.

We will know in subsequent communications from Amarin if their message is still that Edding is advancing efforts for reimbursement. 

North, yes, that's what I was saying. Edding knew they were not on list. Amarin obviously knew as well. Thus, why Amarin only stated "advancing efforts". 

This was mostly a case of running out of time vs a non-consideration determination. There was only two days to meet the June 30th deadline and not knowing the exact label and indication and pulling together other documents like an economic impact study would have taken time. 2025 will be a learning year for Edding and seeding the market but 2026 should be when government approves reimbursement.

On a separate note I bought another 20K today for a total of 123K. I figure at these prices there is an asymmetric bias to the upside but we will see.

Eh?? You must mean Eddingpharm knew not on a list for 2024.

North, I think you may be right.

And if you look at their verbiage on China, they only stated that Edding is "advancing efforts" for reimbursement in China. There was no mention of potential inclusion this year. Since NRDL negotiations were essentially completed when they made their presentation a few weeks ago, they already knew that Vascepa was not on the list for 2025.

Agree with 2025. Application for review was filed a few day(s) late to be considered in 2024 from my reading weeks ago.

Based on their presentation a few weeks ago, I would expect approval in Italy by year-end. They were pretty clear that they no longer want to commit resources to countries where they do not see a current path to reimbursement. This is why there is nobody in France and Germany currently.

But yes, as you said, it's a big commitment to Italy. But keep in mind, a BP does not care about profitability and overhead, as that will all go away in a sale. They will just be buying Vascepa/Vazkepa. They only care about revenue (and potential revenue), and cost of sales (cost to manufacture).

JRoon- from what is posted on stocktwits, they currently are filling 35 openings in Italy for reps. Seems a bit aggressive to me. I just can't believe that at this point in time Amarin exists as tiny company trying to do the work that is usually reserved for some of the largest organizations in the world.

Regarding China, it would be nice to know exactly what Edding did with respect to application for national reimbursement. I found a list here: https://www.navlindaily.com/article/24091/china-releases-2024-nrdl-adds-91-drugs and here: https://www.navlindaily.com/article/22875/nhsa-concludes-preliminary-evaluation-for-list-of-drugs-included-in-2024-nrdl
which lists all the drugs that passed the initial review, and were allowed to proceed to the formal review stage. Vascepa was not on either list. So, I'm not sure Vascepa was even submitted for this year. And if it was, it was not even considered for approval.
This MAY mean that it will be considered for next year. But if it was booted from even initial consideration, then approval next year seems unlikely.
Like most things Amarin, it would just be nice to know more information. so that investors can make informed decisions.

Yes it does but the issue is trying to get it approved to sell in countries outside of the USA. It does not matter if if saves lives if we cannot sell it.

Just checked AIFA (Italy), and a new approved list came out today. Vazkepa still on denied list.

Not sure I saw this before, but the requirement for a prescription are fairly onerous:
"treatment of patients aged 18-80 years with established cardiovascular disease and BMI ≥27 kg/m2, treated with a high-potency statin at the maximum tolerated dose + ezetimibe, who have achieved target levels of LDL cholesterol (

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18701895/amarin-pharma-inc-v-hikma-pharmaceuticals-usa-inc/?page=2
Sleven,

BRAVO SIR!

I'm buying another 10,000 shares this week.
i'm already long but i'm willling to go 100k

He is a troll! What is your budget for a piece of a bridge i have for sale. I'll do a good deal for you!

You don't have to ACT on FFS's suggestions. But at least you can learn something from him. You all act like anyone that isn't "all-in" on Amarin is somehow trolling or just here to cause trouble.

Also, he never claimed that his strategy is infallible.

Listening to people doesn't cost anything. Nor does ignoring them.

The man makes predictions in both directions, then he references the ones that work today. It's an ego play.
Ah,... no, it's a long or short play. It's called "trading"

LOL. Spoken by the the board's fearless leader - an astute 'investor' who thought the -59% crash (pink highlight chart below) on the heels of an earnings miss was OK.

He wrote this on 5/6/2022 (post # 376637 )
I don't think this is as bad as it would appear. We have known for a while that something was happening. We saw favorable formulary and pharmacy changes. Now we know how Amarin was able to accomplish this. I think in the long run this strategy should work. I expected that this would happen after we had achieved significant overseas sales. I guess Amarin decided to do it sooner. If Amarin can use these deals to box put the generic companies and increase our prescription count, I'm fine with the current drop in margin and share price.


Actually what we saw, or I should say what the chart showed, was a technical breakdown of serious support in a down trending price deterioration - clearly screaming that the strategy WILL NOT WORK.

I think Sleven's quote is the most bizarre response to a stock price plunge I have EVER encountered in the stock market...

Well actually

The Act on the Financial Stabilization of Statutory Health Insurance (GKV-FinStG), which entered into force in November 2022, substantially reformed the pricing and reimbursement framework. This reform aimed to achieve additional cost savings of around €5 billion, of which €3.7 billion were allocated to pharmaceutical expenditures1.
Key changes implemented by the GKV-FinStG include:
Modifications to the AMNOG process, which is the primary price regulation mechanism for innovative pharmaceuticals in Germany1.
Adjustments to the health technology assessment (HTA) conducted by the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)1.
Changes to the reimbursement price negotiations between the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds (GKV-SV) and pharmaceutical companies1.

While these reforms aim to control pharmaceutical costs, they do not appear to restrict drug approvals solely to life-saving acute care therapies. The changes focus more on pricing mechanisms and reimbursement negotiations rather than limiting the types of drugs that can be approved1
.
It's worth noting that some pharmaceutical companies have filed constitutional complaints against various provisions of the GKV-FinStG, citing concerns about proportionality and discrimination against research-based pharmaceutical companies. These legal proceedings are ongoing, with a final decision expected in 20251.


Kiwi

You don't understand the situation in Germany. Germany allows a company to launch immediately and negotiate price once the product is already in the German market. German revenue would have paid for the EU launch. BUT AFTER Amarin launch in Germany the government CHANGED THE LAW as a cost saving measure and announced no new drugs would be approved unless they were life saving acute care therapies (ie preventative therapies we're not going to be approved because the economy was so bad).  When Germany announced the CHANGE IN LAWS Amarin had no choice but to abandon ship and get out. 
This was something Amarin could never have foreseen. They had ever reason to believe they could launch with automatic reimbursement while negotiating with the government. 
Once again Amarin got screwed. Management did nothing wrong 

Didn't Denner say he was going to fix the problem in Germany. I believe the paid pumper for Denner said Denner would know which politicians to bribe and everything would be ok. 

Appreciate you comments

I

I certainly haven’t given up. Vascepa saves lives. This story must be believed

Yes That was Karim Mikhail biggest snafu, to go after & try to get approval from the hardest & strictest government regulated Country in all of Europe. I have no idea how much was spent there for nothing, but it must have been very costly to AMRN.

Let's hope that is the case.  I would think that they would have learned a lesson from prior management's Germany exploits. They highlighted that premature wasteful spending so let's hope this means we see Italy approve reimbursement very soon.  

So Apparently they are looking to set up Products & accounts specialists around Rome, Naples, Milan, I noticed they are also looking to get a key account MGR in London. Perhaps There is a chance Italy reimbursement approval comes soon???

Idiots like him help me buy more shares. I am almost three times my year-end goal for shares. I have bought every day for weeks. My average is down to 57 cents. I see this as a safer investment than I made in AMRN before Marine, Anchor, and Outcomes trials.

Irishman, Don't waste your time The man makes predictions in both directions, then he references the ones that work today. It's an ego play.
Sleven,

https://www.linkedin.com/company/amarin-corporation/jobs
Sleven,

I don't think I'm taking your posts out of context; I just don't understand why you posted that particular chart as evidence.And, I guess you've decided to do some sleuthing before this reply. I may have posted about TRNX (Taronis Technologies, which I consider to have been an outright fraud) but I never owned it. And I am making some money on cryptos, I bought ALGO 10 days ago at $0.22 to $0.25.I didn't use technical analysis to make the decision, though.You can have the last word if you wish, no hard feelings.

You are missing the forest for the trees.

I said, "XRP was the "mother of all asymmetric investments" on 11/17 in response to the Trump victory and all the other catalysts beneath crypto - including Trump's proposal to eliminate the capital gains taxes on US crypto companies - hence "an asymmetric investment" (i.e. no sellers), which is precisely what it has lived up to thru today and is up +358% since he took office. This is only the beginning.

If you quit taking my posts out of context, you might capture the intent and start making money. Okay, I'm done with you. I fully understand now why you held TRNX through delistment and bankruptcy. No wonder your are repeating the same pattern with AMRN.

some wisebutt person prints a 1sh trade @.50.

The Nov. 17 post was 430601 and not 43061, for those following along. I reiterate that you used a chart from 2021 to exemplify a chart pattern showing that XRP was the "mother of all asymmetric investments". Are we to believe that it took 3 1/2 years for that chart pattern to instantiate itself into the "mother of all asymmetric investments"? It only instantiated itself, if it can be called that, when Trump was elected. If Harris had been elected, Gensler's SEC would have continued it's jihad against cryptocurrencies.

So you didn't say "prediction". But TA is used to present a visual pattern of probabilities. You are more than implying that your chart showed the probability of XRP being not a good but great "investment" in 2021 was valid. It took 3 1/2 years and what some might call a generational change in American politics for the XRP price at the end-point of that chart to substantially exceed it. In fact XRP tumbled to the $0.50 cent range until rocketing after the election. Put up a chart of XRP/USD from Aug 1 2021 until Nov 1 2024 and demonstrate that the chart pattern showed a probability that an "investment" in XRP was the "mother of all asymmetric investments" in Aug 2021. I remain skeptical.

Thanks Lizzy! Just wanted to make sure I wasn't going crazy. You definitely understand trading better than me.

jroon, my mistake I was looking at the 60 minute chart, not a daily. You are correct 50 DMA is .56 200 DMA is .75. But the stock feels like it wants to move higher. Wishful thinking!

where did I say "prediction." On 11/12 I posted,
Trump card = Crypto.
If you were to trade your AMRN shares for XRP or BTC, you'll likely recoup your losses. Bio stocks will slump during this new administration, while crypto will perform as it paves the way to a new financial exchange system compliments of Elon Musk's influence. Rumor is he is poised to buy Ripple (XRP) which could eventually become the ledger for all derivatives trade transactions. XRP = .60

5 days later I posted,
Remember JL describing AMRN as an "asymmetric" investment?

Behold the mother of all asymmetric investments: XRP post #43061.
That's when I posted the chart, "exemplifying" a volcano pattern similar to AMRN at the time of the R-IT announcement.

Since the first post above, XRP is up +358% selling at 2.75.

I presented an honest investment alternative (as I have in the past) to AMRN fallen angel shares. No one took my advice... fine, Stay stuck in AMRN, your loss.

Next time get your facts straight before you "question my prediction"

looks about right to me

What is the source of that chart, in particular the prices for Ripple? I'm looking at a chart from Worldcoindex for XRP over the last 6 months as well as a chart from Kraken of XRP/USD over the last 6 months and neither chart showed a price above about $0.60 in Aug 2024. More importantly, XRP did not start its run until after Trump won the election.

So I question your "prediction".

After further examination, it looks like that chart is from 2021. So, you're telling me that your charting sophistication and expertise was able to predict Trump's election 3 1/2 years ago? If so, I want some of what you're smoking!

(moderators, please let me know if this is off topic and I'll refrain from this discussion in the future.)

Lizzy, I'm showing the 50-day MA at $0.56, and the 200-day at around $0.72. Am I looking at it wrong?

FYI the stock finally traded above its 50 day MA. Let's see if it crosses above the 200 day, around .57. A few blocks traded on the upside. Fingers crossed etc

I might be in the market for a bridge….

Whether I believe the gentleman or not is not a factor at this time. I just wanted an understanding of his motives. Too many good people are sitting on stock of a company that seems to have wasted a significant opportunity with a life saving drug. I just don’t appreciate game playing

Thanks for posting JRoon.  Good stuff. 

Nice post on EPA benefits from Dr. John Nelson. He's a strong EPA/Vascepa supporter.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/eicosapentaenoic-acid-induces-anti-inflammatory-cells-john-szgic/

Looks like 4 truckloads?

I agree 100%. He is so full of shit he could start a fertilizer farm.

The guy is donating his time trying to save investors from amrn. Such a nice guy! If you believe that crap I have a bridge to sell you.

FFS has been called out on this for years. All he does is predict the past . For example on 5/31 he said the stock was hitting $1.70 on 6/4 he said it was hitting 0.50 Then he goes back and selectively chooses which statement applies. Hence the moniker "Predictor of the Past ."

FlyFishingStocks
May 22, 2024

I think it tests 1.70 within 3 months. That is a +91% rally before it stalls, absorbs selling, and builds a base for another leg up (possibly induced by share buyback operations?).

Available online 30 November 2024https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0033062024001683

FFS, thank you for your response. I’m not asking you to leave. I just asked what your intent was. I for one struggled to see what you were trying to achieve with your posts.
The stock has been a disappointment…significantly. Such promise and yet so much failure. Yet there is life still, she still breaths

Its not too late yet, may be. Buy high, sell higher (XRP). Buy low, sell lower(AMRN). Is this how investments work these days?