Inflation Cooled in February -- 2nd Update
14 March 2018 - 4:16AM
Dow Jones News
By Harriet Torry
WASHINGTON -- Inflation cooled slightly for American consumers
last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to raise
short-term interest rates next week, but relieving it of pressure
to take more dramatic action to prevent the economy from
overheating.
A decline in gasoline and fuel-oil costs kept a lid on price
pressures in February, along with a muted rise in the cost of rent
and a drop in car prices. The consumer-price index, which measures
what Americans pay for everything from shampoo to hotel stays,
increased 0.2% in February after rising a seasonally adjusted 0.5%
in January, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
Unrounded, the CPI showed an even smaller increase: by 0.150% in
February from 0.539% in January. Excluding the volatile food and
energy categories, so-called core inflation slowed to a rate of
0.182% in February from January's 0.349%, the biggest increase
since March 2005.
Tuesday's report tempered signals from last month of a pickup in
inflation that had sent shock waves through financial markets.
Nonetheless, economists cautioned that annual measures of price
increases could snap back next month, when exceptionally low
readings for a handful of items last year, such as wireless
cellphone services, wash out of the data.
Overall prices rose 2.2%, while core prices were up 1.8% in the
year to February.
"Together, these figures should satisfy Fed policy makers that
inflation is not too cold -- as last spring's numbers hinted at --
or too hot, as might have been inferred from the January print,"
JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli said in a note to
clients.
Recent data now show the economy in a sweet spot with moderate
inflation in February, together with bumper job creation, a 4.1%
unemployment rate and strong consumer sentiment readings.
Fed-funds futures tracked by CME Group showed investors priced
in an 86% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase
by the Fed next week.
Fed policy makers held their benchmark short-term interest rate
steady in January, in a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, and signaled
greater confidence that inflation would rise to their 2% target.
Core inflation was only 1.5% in January, according to the Fed's
preferred measure, the Commerce Department's personal-consumption
expenditures index. Yet Tuesday's consumer-price index marked the
third straight month in which core prices increased at an annual
rate of 1.8%, suggesting inflation is rising at a moderate
pace.
Swings in some goods prices drew attention from financial
analysts. Prices of both new and used vehicles declined in February
for the second straight month, which economists attributed to a
pullback in demand after consumers hit by late-summer hurricanes
last year replaced damaged cars and trucks.
Apparel prices increased for the second straight month, rising
1.5% after January's 1.7% gain; a surprise since the category has
experienced deflation for most of the past two decades.
"Moves of this order are outsized, and are unlikely to be
sustained for very long," said Barclays economist Pooja Sriram.
Write to Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 13, 2018 13:01 ET (17:01 GMT)
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