TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Average New Car Transaction Price to Reach $35,538 up 2.0% Year Over Year for February 2020
04 March 2020 - 1:00AM
TrueCar, the most efficient online platform to find a car, (NASDAQ:
TRUE) and its data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, project average
transaction prices (ATP) to be up 2.0% or $701 from a year ago and
down 1.0% or $360 from January 2020.
“Average transaction prices have increased for 51 consecutive
months. This is likely due to the healthy economy and consumers
opting for utility vehicles with generally higher price tags,” said
Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of
TrueCar. “That being said, there are still plenty of new vehicles
for consumers to choose from that are not only affordable, but also
offer the latest safety and technology features. Brands such as
Kia, Nissan, Hyundai and Honda all have average transaction prices
below $30,000.”
Key Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Daimler and Volkswagen are expected to be down on ATP
year-over-year, 2.4% and 4.2%, respectively. BMW is expected to be
up on ATP again this month with a 4.2% year-over-year
increase.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to be up on ATP year-over-year 11.1%
and 8.6%, respectively, as consumer demand for utility vehicles
remains steady.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker
brand health, most luxury brands are expected to be down this
month, however Lincoln is expected to be up 3.3% with another
strong showing due to strong demand and lower incentive spend.
- Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,576,
up 0.2% or $8 dollars year-over-year, and down 4.2% or $158 from
January 2020. ○ The most notable year-over-year declines in
incentive spend are expected from Subaru, Ford and Honda. Meanwhile
Nissan, Volkswagen Group and Toyota are expected to have the
biggest incentive increases.
- Incentive spend as a percentage of ATP for the industry is
expected to be 10.1%, down 1.8% from a year ago and down 3.3% from
January 2020.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will
reach more than $48 billion for February 2020, up 10.8% (based on
an adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 14.8% from
last month.
“Hyundai has shown the biggest increase in average transaction
price this month primarily due to sales of the Palisade, their
popular three-row SUV, which has almost twice the average
transaction price of other vehicles in Hyundai’s portfolio,” said
Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at
TrueCar. “The all-new Sonata, winner of ALG’s best vehicle redesign
of 2020, is also peaking the interest of consumers looking for a
Hyundai at a lower price point.”
February 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers
by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as February
2019.) For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Feb 2020 Forecast |
Feb 2019 Actual |
Jan 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$58,130 |
$55,810 |
$57,990 |
4.2% |
0.2% |
Daimler |
$63,539 |
$65,114 |
$64,856 |
-2.4% |
-2.0% |
FCA |
$36,916 |
$35,929 |
$36,968 |
2.7% |
-0.1% |
Ford |
$40,999 |
$38,966 |
$41,192 |
5.2% |
-0.5% |
GM |
$38,065 |
$37,861 |
$37,709 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
Honda |
$28,458 |
$28,799 |
$28,287 |
-1.2% |
0.6% |
Hyundai |
$26,588 |
$23,935 |
$26,543 |
11.1% |
0.2% |
Kia |
$24,775 |
$22,810 |
$24,551 |
8.6% |
0.9% |
Nissan |
$26,937 |
$27,162 |
$27,612 |
-0.8% |
-2.4% |
Subaru |
$30,143 |
$29,484 |
$30,052 |
2.2% |
0.3% |
Toyota |
$33,058 |
$32,423 |
$32,953 |
2.0% |
0.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
$43,191 |
$45,067 |
$44,320 |
-4.2% |
-2.5% |
Industry |
$35,538 |
$34,837 |
$35,898 |
2.0% |
-1.0% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Feb 2020 Forecast |
Feb 2019 Actual |
Jan 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$5,561 |
$5,685 |
$5,450 |
-2.2% |
2.0% |
Daimler |
$5,637 |
$5,769 |
$5,408 |
-2.3% |
4.2% |
FCA |
$4,622 |
$4,783 |
$4,504 |
-3.4% |
2.6% |
Ford |
$3,239 |
$3,981 |
$4,568 |
-18.6% |
-29.1% |
GM |
$4,846 |
$4,604 |
$4,872 |
5.3% |
-0.5% |
Honda |
$2,184 |
$2,280 |
$2,120 |
-4.2% |
3.0% |
Hyundai |
$2,557 |
$2,560 |
$2,686 |
-0.1% |
-4.8% |
Kia |
$4,005 |
$3,695 |
$3,543 |
8.4% |
13.0% |
Nissan |
$4,253 |
$3,697 |
$4,319 |
15.0% |
-1.5% |
Subaru |
$1,083 |
$1,427 |
$1,017 |
-24.1% |
6.6% |
Toyota |
$2,517 |
$2,245 |
$2,449 |
12.1% |
2.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,877 |
$3,392 |
$4,055 |
14.3% |
-4.4% |
Industry |
$3,576 |
$3,568 |
$3,734 |
0.2% |
-4.2% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Feb 2020 Forecast |
Feb 2019 Actual |
Jan 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
9.6% |
10.2% |
9.4% |
-6.1% |
1.8% |
Daimler |
8.9% |
8.9% |
8.3% |
0.1% |
6.4% |
FCA |
12.5% |
13.3% |
12.2% |
-5.9% |
2.8% |
Ford |
7.9% |
10.2% |
11.1% |
-22.7% |
-28.7% |
GM |
12.7% |
12.2% |
12.9% |
4.7% |
-1.5% |
Honda |
7.7% |
7.9% |
7.5% |
-3.0% |
2.4% |
Hyundai |
9.6% |
10.7% |
10.1% |
-10.1% |
-5.0% |
Kia |
16.2% |
16.2% |
14.4% |
-0.2% |
12.0% |
Nissan |
15.8% |
13.6% |
15.6% |
16.0% |
0.9% |
Subaru |
3.6% |
4.8% |
3.4% |
-25.7% |
6.2% |
Toyota |
7.6% |
6.9% |
7.4% |
10.0% |
2.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
9.0% |
7.5% |
9.2% |
19.3% |
-1.9% |
Industry |
10.1% |
10.2% |
10.4% |
-1.8% |
-3.3% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven.
An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance
of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding
incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing
incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers |
|
|
Feb 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
BMW |
-0.1% |
-0.7% |
Daimler |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
FCA |
2.0% |
1.3% |
Ford |
0.3% |
2.8% |
GM |
-1.6% |
1.3% |
Honda |
-1.6% |
-0.2% |
Hyundai |
-0.4% |
0.8% |
Kia |
0.1% |
-1.3% |
Nissan |
-1.9% |
0.2% |
Subaru |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
Toyota |
1.1% |
0.3% |
Volkswagen |
0.0% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mainstream |
|
|
Feb 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-1.1% |
0.8% |
Chevrolet |
-1.5% |
1.5% |
Chrysler |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Dodge |
0.5% |
1.9% |
Fiat |
-3.0% |
-4.2% |
Ford |
0.1% |
2.8% |
GMC |
-2.5% |
0.6% |
Honda |
-1.3% |
-0.2% |
Hyundai |
-0.4% |
0.7% |
Jeep |
3.3% |
0.4% |
Kia |
0.1% |
-1.3% |
Mazda |
-1.3% |
0.4% |
MINI |
1.0% |
0.7% |
Mitsubishi |
2.5% |
0.6% |
Nissan |
-1.7% |
0.1% |
Ram |
0.8% |
3.0% |
Subaru |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
Toyota |
1.6% |
0.3% |
Volkswagen |
2.5% |
0.6% |
Luxury |
|
|
Feb 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-4.8% |
-1.1% |
Alfa
Romeo |
1.2% |
1.5% |
Audi |
-3.8% |
1.5% |
BMW |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
Cadillac |
-1.1% |
1.0% |
Genesis |
-0.9% |
1.9% |
INFINITI |
-3.4% |
0.7% |
Jaguar |
-3.1% |
0.5% |
Land
Rover |
-3.6% |
0.4% |
Lexus |
-2.3% |
0.4% |
Lincoln |
3.3% |
2.4% |
Maserati |
-0.1% |
5.3% |
Mercedes-Benz |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
Porsche |
-0.7% |
-0.3% |
Volvo |
-3.4% |
0.1% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our network of 16,500 Certified
Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and
efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including USAA, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694
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