DALLAS, Aug. 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Michigan Economic Activity Index went unchanged in May at a level
of 117.5. May's reading is 20 points, or 20 percent, above the
index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.4 points for all
of 2018, 0.1 points above the index average for 2017. April's index
reading was revised to 117.5.
Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index was unchanged
for the second consecutive month in May. The headline index has
clearly flattened out over the last year and a half. In fact, in
the 17 months since January 2018, the
Michigan Index has only increased in three months. It decreased in
eleven months and was unchanged in three months. The good news for
the state is that it continues to generate new jobs. However, it is
fair to say that the pace of job growth is slipping. In May,
Michigan payroll employment was up
by 0.4 percent over the previous 12 months, well below the U.S.
national rate of 1.6 percent. Other factors are holding down the
Michigan Index. Unemployment insurance claims have been trending up
this year. Housing starts have been declining for two years.
Industrial electricity demand has also eased over the last 2 years.
Auto production has slipped this year as well. In May, three
factors were positive. They were house prices, total state trade
and sales tax revenue. The six negatives for May were payroll
employment (barely), unemployment insurance claims, housing starts,
industrial electricity demand, auto and light truck production and
hotel occupancy. Trade issues remain unsettled for the state. The
USMCA trade deal was ratified by Mexico in June, but remains unratified by the
U.S. and Canada. The
U.S./China trade war is also
unresolved with no clear prospects for a reduction in imports
tariffs.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks
in Michigan, is a subsidiary of
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company
headquartered in Dallas, Texas,
and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Michigan and
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank