New Arthur D. Little Blue Shift Institute Report Outlines 5 Scenarios for Future of Climate Change Adaptation
27 June 2024 - 6:00PM
Business Wire
Whatever the success of climate change mitigation measures,
companies and society will need to adapt to a changing world. To
aid business climate change adaptation strategies, Arthur D. Little
(ADL)’s Blue Shift Institute today published We’re doomed, now
what?, an in-depth report that sets out five potential scenarios
for adaptation and highlights relevant technologies to focus
on.
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Arthur D. Little Blue Shift Institute
Report Outlines 5 Scenarios for Future of Climate Change Adaptation
(Graphic: Business Wire)
The report is based on extensive analysis, interviews with over
40 international experts, surveys of business leaders, and was
created in close collaboration with the United Nation’s (UN’s)
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).
It works on a “+3°C by 2100” outcome for climate change, based
on projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and uses this to underpin five potential, non-exclusive
scenarios for the future of climate change adaptation:
- Green Communities: A resource-scarce world in which
grassroots initiatives flourish, for lack of more ambitious
projects; there is a pull towards greater decentralization,
circularity, and frugality
- Lonely at the top: Highly concentrated and competitive
industries in which market leaders spearhead adaptation to build
competitive advantage and keep satisfying consumers, while
operating under increasing constraints
- Wild Green West: A creative chaos in which private
adaptation initiatives sprout everywhere, fueled by private capital
and hype, with no overarching strategy or consistency
- Don’t Look Up: A bleak future in which neither customers
nor finance institutions have adjusted to the new climate reality,
leaving nothing but quick fixes and crisis management
- Adaptation Surge: A world in which adaptation is the
norm and the new currency, resetting expectations, creating new
markets and new needs for differentiation, and possibly
overengineering
For each of these futures the report outlines the functional
expectations and relevant technologies to drive adaptation.
Alongside this, it includes “no regret” solutions, enabling
technologies, and capabilities that will be vital, whatever the
future brings, and that companies should invest in now.
Dr. Albert Meige, Global Director of Blue Shift at Arthur D.
Little, comments: “When faced with prospective technology
choices, executives often need to address three challenges:
complexity, speed and cognition. Adaptation to climate change is no
different. It is complex because climate impacts are local,
multifactorial and highly variable; and also because there is a
myriad of adaptation technologies available. By modeling potential
scenarios we aim to cut through this complexity, providing CEOs
with a clear guide to the potential technologies that their
adaptation will require.”
Dr. Peter Oksen, Senior Program Officer at the World
Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) GREEN, comments:
“This report offers a refreshing new angle to climate action,
namely that of businesses and their priorities for adapting to a
challenging future. It provides the scenario-based context for the
technologies outlined by WIPO GREEN, underscoring the essential
role of innovation in forging a sustainable future. By detailing
the functional expectations and key technologies necessary for
adaptation, it highlights the need to integrate technological
advancements within our business, economic and policy frameworks to
effectively combat climate change.”
We’re doomed, now what? can be accessed here:
https://tinyurl.com/4w35xahm
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240627698200/en/
Cate Bonthuys Catalyst Comms +44 7715 817589
Bonthuys.Cate@adlittle.com For further information, please visit
www.adlittle.com