Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Options

TOL, 10Q due DEC 9, per Seeking Alpha

Wait for Trumps Pro Growth policies to fuel a wave of New Homes

TOL 10Q due AUGUST 19

Sept 75 puts added

Shorting this double top!! So overbought!

;)

Add to your shorts here;)

The fraud is rampant with this one. Tic toc boys. Years ends coming and you can't hide the fraud any longer.

If you missed the last. Here is the last opportunity to short a top for awhile.

Well boys. Hope you all shorted the snot out of this. Timbreeee

Not to mention their homebuyers are not happy with the quality of builds and the amount of time to get things fixed. Running many months behind. As rates continue to rise and these so called buyers can't get locked in up to a year and half later. People can't afford these homes there buying. Bubbles about to pop

Where was it 07/08

It will never be below $20 ever again, that was during the pandemic. You might see $40 at best.

Just saying I'll be a buyer below 20. All that was is a bear market rally

TOL chart

[color=red][/color]

Going below 20

These guys are not even close selling house like they use to. No more buyers. Collapse coming!

High 20s guaranteed. I would watch them show 100 of homes a week to perspective clients. Now I see 1 every 2 week. And those are facts fyi!

Over a year to build a house. These people are expecting to move in and are bouncing around from rental to rental for months waiting on these house to get finished.

Short short short.......

Fyi I'm hearing from Toll customers how absolute horrible their builds and service are. All I here how stressed these people are dealing with Toll. Little piece of inside information for those looking for it. Were talking folks aren't getting in for over a year. And they cant lock their rates till it's done. And tolls taking forever to build these things. I'm shorting in again here fyi disclaimer. Because I hear from there customers daily!

So here is a July update on Toll Brothers for everyone on the board.

1. The price is currently around $56, which is far more attractive than some other housing builders.

2. The quarterly dividend is still 17 cents a share, which is sustainable.

3. Early indications are the builder's line of "affordable luxury" houses are a hit with buyers.

More here, as well as some alternatives if you want to diversify your exposure to housing builders.

https://www.savingadvice.com/articles/2021/07/21/1084826_buy-these-6-housing-stocks-for-a-rocket-to-the-moon.html

Transitory ?



April 1350

To hear FED Yellen and other "experts" go on about how they don't see things pissses me off to no end.. Just ask anyone who is in construction industry at every level what the real grass roots economy is about !!!

As far as residential service/repair/remodel our customer base is approx 80%+ retirees today as they are only ones left with any wealth building from their working from prior decades when American was great from 1950's to say 1985 or so...

They (FED) are so far off and too far removed, this will be beyond catastrophic what I see building for a loooong time.. They are way behind acting and too far removed from the general public and especially, small business industries...

To hear FED Yellen and other "experts" go on about how they don't see things pissses me off to no end.. Just ask anyone who is in construction industry at every level what the real grass roots economy is about !!!

As far as residential service/repair/remodel our customer base is approx 80%+ retirees today as they are only ones left with any wealth building from their working from prior decades when American was great from 1950's to say 1985 or so...

They (FED) are so far off and too far removed, this will be beyond catastrophic what I see building for a loooong time.. They are way behind acting and too far removed from the general public and especially, small business industries...

$167.00 for roll of 12/2 w/g romex, $140.00 FOR ROLL OF 14-2 W/G ROMEX RIGHT NOW! Outrageous..... That's in Hickory, NC region where we operate...

Big Box stores with crap lumber products out of atmosphere with their prices. Actual Lumber suppliers with higher quality especially PT lumber say for decks 3-4 times what we paid few months back even !! That is 300-400% increase I am talking about...

Old news ?
People never even mentioned or noticed lumber until it got over 1000




would like to know more about these : Like, what could one power ?
A two-slice toaster - How many pieces of toast ? If any
https://www.google.ca/search?q=Bluetti+4500+peak+wattage+Solar+Generator&sxsrf=ALeKk00P67LA-r545zAFoc8_23rDcHto_g:1623846377154&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwh-uTk5zxAhWJ2J4KHbRgAdQQ_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=1280&bih=577&dpr=1.5

You are exactly right. Hyperinflation is picking up steam.

I am a 40 year construction industry expert. I lived & remember late 1970's like it was yesterday. we are heading back to $100.00/barrel oil now too !

This Administration launching us back to a time again which today's economy cannot survive like we did back then... We no longer have an Industrial/Manufacturing base as back then with 80% working citizens middle class...

Prices on lumber materials. electrical & plumbing are outrageous and here in my area of NC all building is stopping because no builder willing to make contract to build anything "new"... Was in Lowes in Hickory, NC yesterday, roll of 12-2w/g romex now over $160.00 !!!! OSB crap sheeting 7/16" over $50.00 per sheet !

I am a service & repair contractor business and I will survive, but many will be failing.

Add higher interest rates and fees and costs on all small businesses, we are going to have a real mess coming fast. yet so many too blind to see the forest through the tress yet out there...

Short toll brothers. They’ve stopped selling homes in some parts. Can’t get supplies.

JUST IN: $TOL Toll Brothers Reports Preliminary Net New Order Activity

FORT WASHINGTON, Pa., Sept. 21, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL) ( www.TollBrothers.com ) In anticipation of upcoming meetings with investors, Toll Brothers, the nation’s leading builder of luxury homes, today announced preliminary results regarding the Co...

Got this from TOL - Toll Brothers Reports Preliminary Net New Order Activity

Agreed! Dumped into this the other day....

Very undervalued. And their environmental standards will set them up for the future.

At the same time I wouldn't call them a growth stock because shares value will inflate as green companies like TOL will become more and more popular...

What a steal!

Toll Brothers $TOL Struggles To Catch A Bid, Watch This Level

Leading home-builder stock, Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL), has been steadily declining since peaking in mid-May 2019. At that time, the stock was trading as high as $39.58 a share, but has been slowly falling lower on the charts. Today, TOL stock is trading below its important 200-day moving average. This is usually a sign of further weakness for the shares in the near term. Traders and investors must now look around the $30.00 area for major chart support. This is where the stock was defended in October 2018 and also where the stock reversed a sharp weekly down-trend. This level will likely be solid support when initially retested.




Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

$TOL BULLISH SET UP INTO EARNINGS

Despite the fact that analysts are less than bullish on the stock, we have confidence that a good report will follow on from the rising home sales figures released last month. Toll brothers stock has suffered a deep correction from 2018 highs, but is now in a well defined uptrend with out target in the $43 region. Within the chart there is a possibility of a inverse H&S forming, with the price sitting on support a volume spike could validate the setup.
Given the fact that analysts are skeptical, a good earnings report could result in upgrades and a short squeeze in the days and weeks to follow.

Toll Brothers Confirms The Housing Slowdown December 2018
The housing market has been slowing dramatically for several months.
The national level housing data such as building permits and new construction have been plunging.
Toll Brothers saw new home orders plunge the most since 2011.

Buy buy buy

Buy buy buy.... going up soon

Toll Brothers Inc $TOL Is Testing Key Support, But This Level Is Better

Leading home builder, Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL), has been steadily declining since January 2018 when it traded as high as $52.73 a share. Since that high pivot, TOL stock has steadily fallen lower. Today, TOL stock is trading at $34.93 a share. Despite the stock being severely oversold and holding a major retrace level there is very little optimism for the shares to move higher from here. Many investors believe that higher interest rates will hurt the home-builder stocks going forward. Traders and investors should now watch the $30.00 area as the next major support level. This area is where the stock broke out in December 2016. Often, when a stock retests a major break-out area it will be defended by the institutional money.





Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

hurry

entry 33

Mid-Atlantic real estate expert, Shark Tank's Barbara Corcoran is predicting higher home prices. She was asked whether the tax changes or other headwinds will lower home prices this year. If anyone knows the re business it's the delightful and devastatingly beautiful Barbie! This is a great time to be a builder. TOL has many competitors but it's one of the better choices and they have a history of making wise financial decisions. The niche market that TOL serves makes it special in the industry and there is an upside from here according to my analysis. How can you disagree with a shark?

Rising tide raises all boats. The housing market is white-hot and it is getting hotter every day. Funds are pouring into this industry from saavy managers and investors. TOL will benefit, it's a given. Another stock to consider is MSPC. I bought shares and now I'm as happy as a clam. MSPC hit a 52-week high today on steady volume and closed at the high price of the day. Hopefully, TOL will also be able to set a new 52-week high as well.

The only thing I am worried about is that TOL is not entering some of the best markets. Compared to DHI, LEN and PHM (all competitors), TOL could be getting left out. It is possible that TOL is quietly out acquiring property in hot markets in order to soon enter them and perhaps slip out of underperforming markets?


Downgrade Raymond James: Strong Buy to Outperform 12/7/2017
Downgrade KeyBanc: Overweight to Sector Weight 12/6/2017

Price target: $60
Sentiment: Buy

"Over the last year, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB, -0.09% has gained nearly 22%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 17.7% advance."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-sentiment-stays-very-strong-in-february-nahb-says-2018-02-15

"The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index stayed at 72 in February. That’s a very strong reading, and just slightly below December’s cycle-high reading of 74, as any reading over 50 indicates “good” performance."

I saw a nice piece on NBR...here it is

"The groundhog may not agree, but spring has sprung early this year, at least in the housing market. Rising interest rates and record-low supply have lured potential buyers out early — in just three days nearly 100 potential buyers toured a Denver home priced at $500,000.

"There is simply just too much demand right now," said Martin Mata, the Redfin agent showing the three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. "There is just not a lot of affordable housing here in Denver, and we have a really good economy so a lot of people are still moving here."

There were close to 26 percent fewer homes for sale in Denver in January compared with a year ago, according to Zillow. Nationally, supply is 10 percent lower than a year ago, with just three months' worth of available inventory. A six-month supply is considered to be a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

The record low supply is driving competition higher and bringing homebuyers out to the market very early...."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/why-nearly-100-people-toured-one-denver-home-in-three-days.html

TOL fundamentals are in place. It should be a great year for TOL. Reports are housing shortages in the West, including jumbos such as TOL specializes in. Not many houses available but demand is above average so TOL revenues should go up a lot in 2018. As long as TOL management executes on this opportunity share price should hold steady and improve along with increased dividends.

Besides TOL, many other builders, financial companies and others are poised to have a great year. TOL and IFXY are two great stocks. If you have not picked up shares of IFXY shares yet but you already own TOL shares, now is a good time to buy IFXY. For those IFXY shareholders not yet owning TOL shares, you cannot find a better stock than TOL if you want a nice "blue chip".

Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) Nears Major Support For A Bounce

Shares of Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) have collapsed lower in the last two weeks, falling from a 52 week, multi-year high of $52.73 to a low today of $47.71. This decline should make investors worry about the future condition of the housing market. However, just like with any stock, Toll Brothers Inc will bounce hard at a key support level I am scoping out a swing trade buy at the technical, major support of $46.60. Based on PPT Methodology time counts, it needs to hit that level by Wednesday, January 31st, 2018 to be valid. If it does, look for a significant bounce back to $50.00 within days.





Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

Epic Bear Flag On Toll Brothers (TOL) Signals Major Downside

Shares of Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) are in trouble. The technical chart has one of the most powerful bear flag formations I have seen in the last year and it is likely near a major breakdown. The next wave of selling will be more powerful than the first, likely sinking Toll Brothers Inc as low as $40 before investors can start nibbling. The fundamental reason should be discussed as well. With the new tax plan in effect, home prices in many higher net worth states like California, New York and New Jersey will be dropping an estimated 10% or more. In addition, buyers in these higher end home states may think twice about buying, maybe even deciding to move to lower state income states. It is naive if investors think that a higher end home builder will not see an effect from this new tax plan killing off the SALT deduction.




Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

dang, didn't get there...I knew it was a reach.