Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Options

You might be surprised at the positive effect of not seeing these posts.

Yup--I finally put dog schit mike_dotcom on ignore months ago. Unfortunately, the numerous responses to his garbage are visible.

Really Big Numbers — Plausible?
7 million AD patients will be prescribed Blarcamasine at what cost per year.
My guess is at least 2 million and at least $5,000 per year.
Here’s the arithmetic on those numbers (which, as starters) are very plausible.

1. Could there be 2 million Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine in the first year it is authorized for sale and use, most likely to be in Europe?

“In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million.”
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4935104/

So, yes, 2 million European Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine is probably a low number. A more likely total would be around 5 million.

2. Will Anavex Life Sciences Corp sell a year’s worth of blarcamesine for $5000?

That would be a daily cost of about $13.69. 50 mgs of blarcamesine, a daily Alzheimer’s dose (maybe only 30 mgs) may cost about a dollar to manufacture. Add another dollar to encapsulate and package it. Then, a dollar to ship and distribute each day’s capsules. Total cost to Anavex Life Sciences Corp around $3.00. But, be safe and presume $5.00. Anavex would then clear $8.69.

For a year’s treatment, Anavex would then take in $3,171.85 of cleared funds for each patient. Again, be safe and conservative; round that off to $3,000.00.

With annual sales to only 2 million Alzheimer’s patients in Europe, Anavex would clear a total of $6,000,000,000; six billion dollars.

With annual sales to 5 million Alzheimer’s patients in Europe, Anavex would clear a total of $15,000,000,000; fifteen billion dollars.

3. How many AVXL shares will there be?

Right now, Anavex has 85,060,000 outstanding shares. Let’s be conservative and think that by the time blarcamesine is authorized there will be 100,000,000 shares; one hundred million.

4. Per share earnings.

With these numbers, with annual, cleared (“profit”) revenues of $6 billion (from 2 million patients), with a hundred million shares, that amounts to $60.00 per outstanding share.

With 5 million European Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine, that amounts to $150.00 per outstanding share.

5. Potential dividends.

If Anavex clears $60.00 per outstanding share, how much of that would drop down and go out as a dividend? Half of it is not unreasonable; a $30.00 per-share dividend.

If they clear $150.00 per share, half going out as dividends would be a per-share dividend of $75.00.

But, eventually, blarcamesine will be sold also in the U.S. With that, roughly, double all of the above.

And all of that is only blarcamesine for Alzheimer’s. Punch in the conjectured numbers for Parkinson’s disease, schizophrenia, and any of the other future indications.

Lastly, and probably the biggest, will be the numbers when blarcamesine or Anavex 3-71 become commonly, almost universally prescribed and used for geriatric disease and aging prophylaxis, starting in individuals’ middle age.

Lots of digits. Lots and lots of dollars.

I want this stock to go UP. It just never does.

I (also) am annoyed by these posters that never contribute anything. Unfortunately for me, these annoyances are cumulative. I "ignored" them. You might be surprised at the positive effect of not seeing these posts.

I would like to apologize to this MB. Unfortunately, I allowed a certain person to get under my skin and I wasted your time and efforts to read my post. Enjoy your weekend with whomever you love.
GODSPEED AVXL.

And there it is....You are something else. 

My "man vagina"? Is that something you fantasize about? On this date in 2021 the stock closed at 15.48 and here we sit FOUR YEARS later at 9.74. I'd say that's the very definition of dogschitt.

What it's like Living with Schizophrenia

I doubt it as I haven't posted today while the market was open.

If things go south in our economy and the dollar drops against the Euro in the next couple of years, that $5,000 estimate should be adjusted upwards.

I have trouble reconciling the words George and style within the context of a sentence.

" Still looks like dogschitt to me"--you must be describing yourself-D.S.--take a hike--you have zero credibility on this board--less than zero !!!!!

Ok if a fraction of a spreadsheet number why so?
It should be a simple bit of arithmetic.
By two years what percentage of
7 million AD patients will be prescribed Blarcamasine at what cost per year.
My guess is at least 2 million and at least $5,000 per year.

I’m not trying to be argumentative, just doing the math.

Speaking of feces Mikey. Why don’t you walk away from your man vagina and quit whining.
Question, are there any really really tall buildings near where you reside?
Your desperation is overly apparent.

Your go-to excuse for being wrong is getting old. Can’t you come up with something else just to freshen it up?

Every time you post about the stock going up or close at the high the stock goes down. I think you are part of the MM cabal and this is your signal to the manipulators to take it down. If you are not working for the cabal then stop posting about it going up.

My father spent his career at JNJ a long time ago, and back then the Credo was honored and a point of pride.

No idea Rx. I chose $3b because it was a big number but smaller than what could happen. It is all pie in the sky so I choose a number that is a fraction what spreadsheet jockeys would choose.

Robot, I remember talking to the COO of JNJ a few years ago - a guy I really like - and he was so proud to tell me that all their R&D was going to China and India. I was like, "Great, will you charge China and India level prices for your drugs?" He was not amused.

I was legit thinking how this good guy was kind of betraying the US (and I am not jingoistic/xenophobic by nature or in life.)

Wall Street is a giant cesspool of corruption.

It is absolutely obvious that the bashers, FUDsters and shorters painted the tape for AVXL stock at the close of trading today,

Good luck and GOD bless,

Up 31 whole pennies on the week. Does this look like the stock of a company about to roll out a successful AD drug? Does this look like the stock of a company that's about to partner with a major pharmaceutucal company? That talk yesterday about being ready for commercialization didn't convince anyone. Still looks like dogschitt to me. I'll stop calling it dogschitt when it ceases being dogschitt. If it ever does.

Yeah, the CREDO on how they conduct themselves has always been a running joke amongst the employees. They abide by it when it is in their interests then cast it aside when it gets in their way. Agree that there are a lot of smart competent people, but leaders often get in the way of innovation because it cost too much or they don’t understand the science behind it. Jnj leadership is some of the worst I have experienced, but not too sure it is much different at the other BP companies.
As long as we get a good deal I don’t care who partners or buys us.

Why do you always set yourself up to be wrong?

When you tell us to expect the stock to close in the green and it doesn’t, you can always use the excuse that the FUDsters, bashers and shorters painted the tape. But when it comes to volume, you can’t blame anything or anybody but yourself.

Big Pharma has to feed its massive appetites with new companies/offerings and when they eat, they leave behind empty husks. Pfizer has purchased...nearly $300b in companies over the last ~20 years and closed site after site while its own market cap has repeatedly settled back to its pre-acquisition market cap. We have done work with JNJ and it has always been a mixed experience: the mission statement on the conference room walls don't match corporate behavior but the company has so many solid people who work for it.

AVXL could have over 3 million shares bought today!!!

And AVXL could close above $15 today--right Georgie?

As we approach AD OLE full read out and the graphs showing actual difference from baseline to finish between placebo and full term are shown will there be distinction between dosage levels? Will Anavex be able to infer an optimal dosage? Will the graphs be broken out in any way by apoe genetics? Just a few thoughts I have, thanx.

Jesse Silveira’s Linkedin Post:

"Brain Atrophy, Mortality, and Moving the Goal Post"

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jesse-silveira-1a366927b_gantenerumab-alzheimer-aria-activity-7308800814674857984-XKmR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAERDW8sBlyrV0QeJz43ptIXjxOLSEnCDyqA

AVXL could have over 3 million shares bought today!!!

Good luck and GOD bless

I will evaluate after the close. However, price is still riding the top upward channel line so still positive signs. Also signs of potential top. So AVXL price bares watching closely.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/3/21/iybjhScreen_Shot_2025-03-21_at_12.40.01_PM.png

Prices are very often messy/erratic on triple witching Fridays. Since the sector, XBI, is up nicely today AVXL was likely a target for selling today. Courtesy of those bears against us.
Just my opinion.

Having worked for J&J for 30 years I can tell you being bought by them is a blessing and a curse. Blessing because they usually overpay for companies. A curse because they usually micromanage their new acquisition so that it is not as well run as it was before. Not an issue if they give us cash for our shares, wouldn’t want jnj shares as part of the deal.
Jnj has an active program for AD, not surprisingly it is amyloid plaque reducing focused. They tout it as some groundbreaking work from an internal communication standpoint.
At some point they are going to realize that this approach is not working and they will seek out other options.
Jnj also has a couple of patents expiring this year to the tune of about $3B in lost sales going to generics. They need to make up that shortfall somewhere, might as well be with avxl.

💯 % 👍️
Basic Fib pullback targets , from the 10.20, I'm looking at the 9.40/30/20 area to hold.
9.50 maybe. Upward pattern, higher lows. 9.00 would look like a big pullback if it happened in this momentum climb. But 9.00 is the 50% Fib in the wave of 7.80 to 10.20.
9.30/9.00/8.70. Today rolled over and established a pullback. Lower low, how low will it pull back. Will be a clue to see where strength holds support in this upwave.
I'm seeing number patterns potential around the 1 dollar moves. 7.80 pivot low becomes 8.80 pivot low.... some day 9.80 develops pivot low, right now 9.80 just displayed resistance roll over.some day will become support. 9.80 becomes 10.80 target.in between the 50 cent pullback targets.... develop as 8.30/9.30... the 10.30 resistance now might become 10.30 pullback support later on... etc, for moves to 10.80/11.30, in this math pattern. I might see a clue by watching 9.30 area develop now, if it does, in the coming days.

Expect the stock price of AVXL to rise into the close of trading today!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

Anavex's 2-73 Blarcamesine or 3-71 likely restores misfolded Pink1 protein and mitochondria into homeostasis through corrective activation of the S1R.

This is a leap forward in understanding what causes Parkinson's disease and how Anavex may provide a solution through corrective action resulting in proper protein folding and autophagy resulting in homeostasis.

There are two main reasons for poor compliance with schizo meds: the dissociative nature of the disease itself, and the common side effects. The latter should be much less with a muscarinic modulator, if it's well tolerated. Our phase 1 went well, and hopefully acceptable GI tolerability continued in the 2a (and shows efficacy of course). We'll be finding out in a couple months, looking forward to it.

In two weeks we'll be getting 2-73's full AD OLE results, which are valuable in understanding the long term AD efficacy.

PINK isn't well, he went back to the hotel.

So it looks like Pink Floyd had Parkinsons figured out decades ago.

"Scientists solve decades-long Parkinson's mystery"

"Researchers have made a huge leap forward in the fight against Parkinson's disease, solving a decades-long mystery. In a major breakthrough, they have been able to see the human PINK1 protein and how it is switched on for the first time. The discovery is a significant milestone in Parkinson's research that paves the way for developing new life-changing drugs."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/03/250313151810.htm

Thx to ST Logic102 for the find.

Selling only enough to cover the cost of the purchase and keeping the rest would be a very positive sign.
Selling all and keeping the money would be a sign he lacks confidence in the company getting approval in the EU.
No middle ground.

Give it time.

Not even close NASDAQ realtime @ or after Open.

One trade outlier Pre Market
09:06:03 $9.4001 2,000

It lasted all of ONE SECOND.

As I said…I don’t trade Pre Market or AH

Hmm... You don't see a low of $9.40 for today?

I believe Missling will exercise the options and sell the shares in a cashless transaction. He’ll pocket a profit of $9-ish a share (pre-tax) and use the after-tax proceeds to continue to diversify his portfolio just like any sophisticated finance person would do.

I do not believe Missling will exercise the options and hold the shares. He would incur income taxes that he’d have to pay out of other resources. It is possible he could exercise the options and sell just enough shares to cover the tax but I don’t think he’ll do that.

Also, I wouldn’t interpret whatever he does as a sign of anything good or bad.

Also, don't forget he has to maintain multiple models and his luxury lifestyle. He keeps pumping the same nonsense on LinkedIn over and over to keep the stock inflated.

Yes, April 5, 2025 is the date of Dr. Grimmer's presentation at the 2025 AD/PD conference concerning the results of the Anavex blarcamesine OLE study for the Phase 2b/3 Alzheimer's trial.

I confused the European dating format versus the US dating format.

Good luck and GOD bless,

Don't forget that Dr. Missling will have to pay federal, state and local taxes on these shares.

Good luck and GOD bless,

Yes, such that his basis will be the market price that day. I would think he could well afford to cough up the 1/2Mil. All his future options are considerably higher than 92 cents
John k9uwa

Expect over 3 million shares to be bought today, expect great news and a probable buyout by next week, expect very heavy volume in the last 15 minutes of the day and to close not only in the green but at the high of the day..... but watch out for the fudsters and the shorters who try to paint the tape.... does any of these things sound familiar at all LOL

In essence retain 450K shares?
That would be the second best bullish indicator, but
he is NEVER pulling $0.5M out of his pocket for the UBER Longs.

Most likely tax liability also reclaimed in sales so perhaps
250K shares retained in SP remains near $10.

Retention BELOW that level would be considered somewhat bearish, but
Missling seems VERY over committed AVXL in his net worth.

Made a little post on Linkedin earlier today. Had to cut down the content significantly due to character limits. If you're interested it pertains to brain atrophy, mortality, and Alzheimer's community propensity to move the goal posts for monoclonal antibodies.

Ill likely post the entire original draft here later today for additional context.