WEST
LAFAYETTE, Ind., March 4,
2025 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. farmer
sentiment continued its upward trend in February, as
the Purdue University/CME Group Ag
Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month to a
reading of 152. The boost was primarily driven by the stronger
sentiment among producers, with the Current Conditions Index
climbing 28 points to 137 — marking a significant rebound from its
low of 76 in late summer and early fall 2024. In contrast, the
Future Expectations Index saw only a modest increase, rising 3
points to 159. The recent upswing in sentiment reflects a
combination of factors, including a sharp recovery in crop prices,
expectations for disaster payments authorized by Congress and
continued strength in the U.S. livestock sector. Despite the
notable improvement in current conditions, farmers remain more
optimistic about the future, as the Future Expectations Index
continues to outpace the Current Conditions Index by 22 points.
This month's survey was conducted between Feb. 10-14.
The Farm Capital Investment Index jumped 11 points in February
to a reading of 59, reaching its most positive level since
May 2021. This month's increase also
placed the index 4 points above its November postelection reading.
Compared to previous months, where future expectations primarily
led investment sentiment, February's increase was driven by
farmers' improved assessment of current conditions. Meanwhile, the
Farm Financial Performance Index held steady at 110, nearly
unchanged from January's reading of 111. Although the index saw
little movement this month, it remains well above last fall's low
of 68.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index modestly
increased in February to 118, a 3-point increase from January and 8
points higher than December. This month's reading was also 3 points
above its level from a year ago and nearly the same as two years
ago. While producers remain less optimistic about farmland values
than they were during the winters of 2021 and 2022, sentiment has
improved compared to the more cautious outlook seen in late summer
and early fall 2024.
"While sentiment about the future remains strong, as reflected
in the Future Expectations Index, there's growing interest in
making larger investments in farm operations, suggesting that
farmers are feeling more confident about their ability to grow
despite the challenges ahead," said Michael
Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and
director of Purdue University's Center
for Commercial Agriculture.
Each February, the barometer survey asks producers about their
five-year growth expectations for their farm operations. In the
2025 survey, 50% of respondents indicated they either have "no
plans to grow" (37%) or "plan to exit or retire" (13%), nearly
unchanged from 52% in 2024. Since 2016, the share of producers in
these two categories has ranged from a low of 43% in 2016 to a high
of 61% in 2022. This year's biggest shift came from a decline in
the percentage of producers expecting slow growth (less than 5%)
and a corresponding increase in those anticipating higher growth
rates. Nineteen percent of respondents noted expectations for their
farm to grow by 10% to 15% or more annually — more than double the
9% who projected similar growth last year.
Policies impacting agriculture are top of mind for U.S. farmers.
Sixty-two percent of survey respondents in February indicated that
passing a new farm bill in 2025 is either "important" (25%) or
"very important" (47%). When asked about the most crucial policies
for their farm over the next five years, 44% cited "trade policy"
as their top concern, followed by "crop insurance program" at 18%.
Concerns about trade policy were also evident when producers were
asked about the likelihood of a "trade war" that results in a
significant drop in U.S. agricultural exports. Forty-eight percent
of farmers in this month's survey believe a trade war is either
"likely" (29%) or "very likely" (19%).
"While the current outlook for U.S. agriculture has improved,
farmers are closely watching trade policy and the potential for a
new farm bill, both of which are key factors shaping their
long-term expectations," said Langemeier. "These ongoing policy
concerns will likely play a critical role in shaping producer
sentiment in the months ahead."
About the Purdue University
Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial
Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development
and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural
Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute
research and educational programs that address the different needs
of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading
derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade
futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and
analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to
efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group
exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products
across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity
indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and
metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading
through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec
and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it
operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing
providers, CME Clearing.
CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of
Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York
Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York
Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity
Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC
and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a
product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI").
"S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are
trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow
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have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.
Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored,
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such products. All other trademarks are the property of their
respective owners.
About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university
leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public
universities in the United States,
Purdue discovers, disseminates and
deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none.
More than 107,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and
modalities, including more than 58,000 at our main campus in
West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and
accessibility, Purdue's main campus has
frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the
next giant leap — including its comprehensive urban expansion, the
Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One
Health initiative — at
https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.
CME-G
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SOURCE CME Group
