SANTA CLARA, Calif.,
March 29, 2019 /PRNewswire/
-- Nearly 70 percent of home shoppers this spring think the
U.S. will enter a recession in the next three years, but that
hasn't stopped them from trying to close on a home, according to
new survey data released today from realtor.com®.
Despite the fact that they foresee an economic downturn, they
generally expressed confidence that a future recession will be
better than 2008 for the housing market.
Overall, nearly 30 percent of the 1,015 consumers who are active
home shoppers* surveyed expect the next recession to begin sometime
in 2020. Twelve percent expect the recession to begin sometime in
2019, 16 percent expect sometime in 2021, and 12 percent expect
2022. Nearly 10 percent expect a recession in 2024 or later, and 21
percent reported that they didn't know. The online survey was
conducted earlier this month with Toluna Research.
According to the survey, even though 63 percent of shoppers
report that home prices are increasing compared to last year, 56
percent of shoppers believe home prices have hit their
peak. The feeling that home prices have topped out could be a
reflection of shopper beliefs that a recession is in the not too
distant future. In fact, those expecting the recession sooner were
more likely to report that home prices had peaked, Hale noted.
"The U.S. economy has been on a hot streak for the last seven
years, producing steady economic growth and low unemployment rates.
Historically, this type of growth hasn't continued indefinitely,
and U.S. home shoppers think it will come to an end sooner rather
than later," said Danielle Hale,
realtor.com® 's chief economist.
When asked if the U.S. housing market would fare better or worse
than the 2008 economic recession, 41 percent responded with better.
Thirty six percent expect it would be worse, while 23 percent
expect it to be the same. Hale noted, the fact that some home
shoppers expect the next recession to be harder on the housing
market than the last recession suggests that they are buying homes
with eyes wide-open and very sober, if not slightly pessimistic,
views of the housing market. This is a stark contrast to the years
leading up to the last recession when 'irrational exuberance' was
more common and yet another reason to expect that the next downturn
will be very different for the housing market than the last.
"When the U.S. enters its next recession, it is unlikely that
the housing market will see a sharp nationwide downturn. The same
record low inventory levels that have made buying a home so
difficult recently, will likely protect home prices in the next
recession," Hale added.
According to the survey, 45 percent of home shoppers feel at
least slightly more optimistic about homeownership after the 2008
recession. Less than a quarter - 22 percent - feel at least
slightly more pessimistic about homeownership, while 33 percent
reported no impact on their feelings about homeownership.
The duration of the recovery from the last recession could
explain the optimism reported by some buyers. Since 2010, home
prices across the U.S. have grown by 49 percent, the U.S. economy
has grown by $3 trillion and 18.7
million more jobs have been created. This persistent optimism
toward homeownership is likely a key reason that home shoppers are
confident and looking to buy, even as they expect a recession is
approaching.
*Active home shoppers are those consumers who responded that
they plan to purchase their next home in 1 year or less.
About realtor.com®
Realtor.com®,
The Home of Home Search℠, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale
and rental listings, and access to information, tools and
professional expertise that help people move confidently through
every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital
real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for
home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple,
efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by
News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move,
Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of
REALTORS®. For more information, visit
realtor.com®.
Contact:
Lexie Puckett:
lexie.puckett@move.com
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SOURCE realtor.com