Stock Guy777
2 weeks ago
Price target raise:
Stifel raised its price target on Microsoft shares to $515 from $475 with a buy rating, thefly.com reported.
According to the investment firm, after a rocky start to 2024 the enterprise software sector is closing the year on a stronger note.
The analyst attributed the improvement to multiple factors like modestly accelerating revenue growth, attractive midyear valuation multiples, early signs of AI monetization, declining interest rates, solid economic performance, and Microsoft’s "safe haven" status following the election, given its minimal exposure to tariffs or China-related risks.
Looking to 2025, Stifel expects management teams to adopt a more conservative approach in their Q1 guidance. But the firm expects MSFT's overall revenue growth rates to at least match those observed in the latter half of 2024.
UBS also raised its Microsoft price target, to $525 from $500, and affimed a buy rating.
The firm highlights that Azure's growth acceleration is likely to be more back-end loaded as new capacity becomes available in the second half of the year, according to a research note.
Although the CEO's reference to an "AI winter" is unsettling, UBS remains confident of Microsoft's position at the top tier of the customer and workload spectrum.
Stock Guy777
3 weeks ago
Microsoft’s biz dev boss on the big bets that could define the future of AI
For Microsoft head of business development, strategy and ventures Christopher Young, identifying the company’s next big thing is the name of the game. And at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Monday, Young walked through some of the biggest AI opportunities he sees on the horizon, from robotics to healthcare to data center sustainability.
Embodied AI — basically, AI that is integrated into the physical world — is one important category on Young’s radar. Self-driving vehicles, for example, will be big for Microsoft, he explained — but not necessarily vehicles that transport people. It will be “a lot more about transportation of goods and services around,” he said, like long-haul trucking: “Just think about all the vehicles that operate in small warehouse contexts or even a shipyard.”
Young also highlighted the potential of humanoid robotics, citing Microsoft’s investment in companies like Figure (which is also a partner with Microsoft, in a collaboration that gives Figure access to Microsoft’s AI infrastructure and services). “It’ll be quite commonplace, particularly in categories of work where it’s very dangerous for people,” he said, citing work on offshore oil rigs, or oil drilling in Antarctica. “There are going to be a lot of different opportunities to bring new types of embodied technology into those kinds of categories,” Young said.
Sustainability is another area that Young predicted will be a big trend for Microsoft in 2025, particularly when it comes to delivering more efficiency for the data centers the company is building — including the cooling necessary to make sure infrastructure does not overheat, as well as making data centers more water-efficient. “We have a series of different methods we’re employing in our data centers, some of them we’ve been doing for a while, others are new,” he said. “We continue to work with our partners, like Nvidia, AMD, even the in-house silicon we’re building at Microsoft.”
As far as venture investments, there are a couple of key categories that Young thinks are important examples of where Microsoft is looking for AI growth. AI infrastructure is one where Microsoft “is making a lot of bets,” he said, including cybersecurity. Microsoft has invested in a company called Hidden Layer, which focuses on protecting AI models against being manipulated by third-party actors. Another is the need for data governance and compliance: “As we bring more AI capabilities into organizations, those AI agents, the copilots, are going to want to access information. You need better governance, you need identity capabilities.” Microsoft has invested in a number of companies in this space, he explained, including Reliance AI.
Lastly, Young cited the healthcare space as an exciting one for investment in AI – noting that Microsoft is investing in companies that use generative AI to look for natural remedies for certain ailments, like eczema, as well as using AI to assist pathologists and radiologists in cancer screening.
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
$MSFT has been in a prolonged compression, forming lower highs and higher lows. This type of setup often leads to a bullish expansion or a significant breakout...
By: Peter DiCarlo | December 1, 2024
• $MSFT has been in a prolonged compression, forming lower highs and higher lows.
This type of setup often leads to a bullish expansion or a significant breakout.
With the market showing strength and momentum heading into December, I anticipate Microsoft will follow suit and break out to the upside, aligning with the broader rally.
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Stock Guy777
1 month ago
Shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have been a cornerstone of tech portfolios for many years now, and 2024 has done little to tarnish that reputation. The stock is up a solid 15% year-to-date, and while it's struggled to push past July's all-time high, there are several reasons for investors to be excited.
Chief among these is the fact that analysts are exceedingly bullish on the tech titan's prospects heading into 2025. With the stock trading in a narrowing range, we could soon be looking at a breakout. Its shares are currently less than a 10% move away from July's high, so let's jump in and see what could send them soaring past it in the coming weeks.
Microsoft's Fundamental Performance Continues to Impress
For starters, there's the company's impressive fundamental performance. Microsoft has consistently beaten analyst expectations for its earnings for over two years, with this trend continuing with its most recent report at the end of last month. That report saw the company smash expectations for both headline numbers, with revenue growth standing out with a 16% year-on-year gain.
Investors should expect further gains heading into the rest of the year, as the holiday quarter historically tends to be Microsoft's strongest.
Bullish Analyst Updates Keep Microsoft in the Spotlight
Building on the fact that the internals are ticking over nicely, always a good starting point when considering a stock, is the fact that several analysts have been calling Microsoft a red-hot buy right. The teams at Royal Bank of Canada, UBS Group, and JPMorgan, to name just a few, have all reiterated their Buy ratings or equivalents in the past month alone. These updates echo a broader sentiment among analysts who have been consistently bullish on Microsoft throughout 2024.
Just last week, the Wedbush team doubled down on their bullish outlook for Microsoft, reiterating a Buy rating and a lofty $550 price target. From where the stock closed on Tuesday night, that's pointing to a targeted upside of nearly 30%. Needless to say, were Microsoft shares to hit that in the coming weeks, they'd be well above July's high and cruising into blue sky territory.
Potential Concerns: Analysts Reassess Microsoft Price Targets
While there is a lot of optimism about the stock, there are some notes of caution to consider. While maintaining their bullish ratings, some analysts have been reining in their price targets. For example, TD Cowen recently lowered theirs, citing higher capital expenditure forecasts. Still, the fact that they held off on doing a full downgrade from their Buy says enough about their confidence in the company's long-term prospects. Plus, even their revised $475 price target would have the stock trading at a fresh high.
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For further counterbalance, it's worth noting that Morgan Stanley did the opposite with their price target on Microsoft shares and actually boosted it following last month's report.
Microsoft’s Technical Setup Suggests December Gains Are Likely
From a technical perspective, there's a lot to like as well. After months of steady consolidation and mostly sideways price action, the stock is now setting higher lows, a key indicator of building momentum.
Strengthening this thesis is the fact that Microsoft's MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just 57. For context, the RSI is a popular technical indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of a stock's recent price changes to assess whether it is overbought or oversold. It runs on a scale of 0 to 100, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 signaling oversold conditions. At 57, Microsoft's RSI suggests that momentum is firmly on the bull's side, and the stock has a lot of room to run before it could even be considered.
With the Fed cutting interest rates and broader indices like the S&P 500 currently at record levels, the macro environment also adds to the sense that a breakout to the north could be on the cards.
Investors should look for the stock to continue setting higher lows into December, with a move above $440 all but confirming the breakout has begun.
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Microsoft (MSFT) the most under-owned mega cap tech stock. This stock is most over-owned
By: Investing.com | November 19, 2024
Morgan Stanley’s analysis of large-cap institutional ownership reveals shifting dynamics in mega-cap technology stocks.
While the under-ownership of these stocks relative to their S&P 500 weighting has decreased, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) remains the most under-owned mega-cap tech stock, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) top the list of over-owned names, according to the bank.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) says the overall gap between mega-cap tech stocks’ institutional ownership and their S&P 500 weighting narrowed by 17 basis points (bps) during the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), moving from -113 bps in 2Q24 to -96 bps by the end of 3Q24.
Yet, "MSFT remains the most under-owned mega cap tech stock we track," with a gap of -2.08%, despite narrowing by 34 bps quarter over quarter (QoQ).
The bank says other mega-cap stocks are also under-owned but less so than Microsoft. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the second most under-owned, is said to have widened its gap by 14 bps in 3Q24 to -1.86%.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), by contrast, reportedly saw the most significant improvement, narrowing its gap by 72 bps to -1.4%, a marked shift from -2.12% in the prior quarter.
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley said Intuit (INTU) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) are among the most over-owned stocks, with institutional ownership exceeding their S&P 500 weighting by +0.60% and +0.37%, respectively.
CRM (Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is also said to appear over-owned, with a +0.32% gap.
Morgan Stanley concludes that while mega-cap tech under-ownership has diminished, Microsoft continues to offer a potential opportunity for investors, given its persistent under-representation relative to its S&P 500 weighting.
Conversely, they believe the over-ownership of names like Intuit and Adobe may signal concentrated positioning in these stocks.
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DiscoverGold
2 months ago
Options traders are blasting META and MSFT
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 31, 2024
• How 2 Big Tech Titans Are Faring After Earnings
• Shares of Meta Platforms and Microsoft are moving lower
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) are reeling after their highly anticipated earnings reports. While the former met Wall Street's estimates, user numbers for the third quarter came up short. Meanwhile, though the latter beat fiscal first-quarter expectations, its revenue growth outlook missed the mark.
META was last seen down 2.2% at $578.67, pivoting lower after yesterday's attempt to conquer its Oct. 7, record high of $602.95. The 40-day moving average looks poised to contain additional losses, however, and longer term, the shares still boast an 85% year-over-year lead.
MSFT is down 5.3% to trade at $409.45 at last glance, after yesterday running into a ceiling at the $440 rally that also capped price action in mid-September. The security is on track for its biggest single-day percentage loss since October 2022, but still sports a 9.5% lead for 2024.
Options traders have been quick to the trigger. META has seen 161,000 calls and 126,000 puts exchanged so far today, which is four times the intraday average volume. The weekly 11/1 600-strike call is the most popular, where new positions are being opened. MSFT has seen 198,000 calls and 111,000 puts cross the tape -- three times the volume typically seen at this point -- with the most activity at the 400-strike put.
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north40000
2 months ago
An anomaly of good luck and bad luck I observed today:
1) I bought 500 shares MSFT at $26/share on 12/30/2011. Those shares currently trade ~ $434/share. I have sold none over the years.
Those shares are in a taxable account.
2) I bought 200 shares AMRN at $7.68/share on 3/2/2011. Those shares currently trade ~ $0.60/share. I have accumulated a total of
~ 222,300 shares AMRN since that date at various prices, coupled with wash sales in IRA.. I am nearly break even in IRA, and have large
short term and long term losses in a taxable account totaling ~ $182,000.
Both MSFT and AMRN have post 4 pm earnings calls today, and Amarin has a 2 hour investor call scheduled in mid-November. I will be listening to the AMRN call. The FDA and EU along with other areas( e.g., China, Australia, New Zealand, Middle East, Canada) have given marketing approval for its Vascepa to treat, and reduce risk of death from, various forms of cardiovascular disease( CVDs). One person dies every 38-40 seconds from heart disease in U.S., per CDC and/or WHO. The market is large, and I have confidence the market value of AMRN shares will eventually greatly exceed that of MSFT. Sarissa Capital, per its CEO Dr. Alex Denner, has bought a little less than 10% of Amarin shares in the belief that AMRN shares are undervalued. He and AMRN BOD and managers are looking for a buyout.
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