DALLAS, May 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Texas Economic Activity Index grew 0.2 percent in February to
136.8. February's index reading is 41 points, or 43 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 134.5 points for
all of 2018, 5.6 points above the average for 2017. January's index
reading was revised to 136.5.
The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased again
in February after reversing a one-month slide in December. For the
year ending in February, the Texas
index is up by 2.9 percent, still-positive, but well below the 5.4
percent year-ago gain from last August. We expect Texas to continue to show above-average growth
in 2019, but it will not be as strong as it was in 2018. In
February, five out of nine index components were positive. They
were nonfarm employment, house prices, industrial electricity
demand, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenues. The negatives
came from unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts,
rig count and total state trade. The rig count was the biggest drag
for the month. We expect strong crude oil prices this spring to
help level out the Texas rig
count. The count slid from around 535 active rigs through the
second half of 2018, to 491 rigs at the end of March. Major oil
companies continue to buy into the Permian Basin shale production
as shown by the competition for Anadarko Petroleum by Occidental
and Chevron. The larger companies will add to the stability of the
region, which has undergone explosive growth due to the development
of shale reservoirs. We expect economic conditions in West Texas to show consistent improvement as
more infrastructure, permanent housing facilities, retail space and
government offices are built to accommodate a permanent gain in the
workforce.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank