DALLAS, April 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in February to
143.3. February's index reading was 48 points, or 50 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.1 points for
all of 2019, 3.8 points above the average for 2018. January's index
reading was 142.2.
Due to reporting lags in state-level economic data, the February
edition of our Comerica state economic activity indexes does not
fully reflect the swift and powerful contraction in the U.S.
economy this spring due to the global coronavirus pandemic. In
February, our Texas Index increased for the sixth consecutive
month, showing favorable economic conditions early this year. Six
out of nine sub-indexes were positive in February including nonfarm
payrolls, housing starts, house prices, total state trade, hotel
occupancy and state sales tax revenue. The three sub-indexes that
declined were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial
electricity demand and the drilling rig count. In the March data,
we expect to see most of the sub-indexes begin to deteriorate, due
to coronavirus-related social mitigation policies. The April data
will likely show a significant deterioration across most
sub-indexes. Because of volatility in many state-level economic
series, our sub-indexes are based on three-month moving average of
the original data series. That smoothing process means that the
sub-indexes for May will show an ongoing deterioration from April.
At the end of April, Texas began
relaxing its social mitigation policies. We expect to see some
near-term benefit to the state economy from relaxed policies.
However, the drag to the state economy from a weakened energy
sector is severe and will keep state-level data for Texas suppressed.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank