BOE's Possible Rate Cut Won't Offset All Brexit Ills, Say Economists
13 July 2016 - 2:30AM
Dow Jones News
LONDON—The Bank of England is expected on Thursday to cut its
benchmark interest rate to a new low, or at the least send a strong
signal that a cut is imminent, in a further step aimed at
cushioning the U.K. economy after voters' decision to leave the
European Union.
But BOE officials and many economists are warning households and
businesses not to expect monetary policy to fully offset economic
uncertainty following the vote.
Britons voted on June 23 to leave the EU in a referendum that
shook financial markets and has triggered weeks of political
tumult.
BOE Governor Mark Carney played a high-profile role after the
referendum, taking to the airwaves within hours of the result to
announce that the central bank was on hand with at least £ 250
billion ($325 billion) in funding for any banks that needed it.
Days later he led officials in loosening bank capital requirements
to support lending, before telegraphing that cuts in interest rates
and other measures to support the economy are in the pipeline.
"The economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy
easing will likely be required over the summer," he said in a
speech on June 30.
The BOE's multipronged response to the Brexit vote underlines
that officials see economic challenges ahead. In testimony to
lawmakers on Tuesday, Mr. Carney said some of the risks to
financial stability identified before the vote have begun to
materialize, citing the tumbling pound and a freeze in real-estate
deals.
Central bank officials warned in May that a vote to leave the EU
could cast a pall of uncertainty over the economy, slowing spending
and investment. The U.K. might even enter "a technical recession,"
Mr. Carney said, meaning at least two consecutive quarters of
falling output, while rising import prices from a slide in sterling
could fuel inflation.
Central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the
European Central Bank have said they are watching closely for any
sign that a shock from Brexit is weighing on the global
economy.
"One of the uncertainties is how bad it is going to get," said
Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec PLC.
The BOE's latest move to support growth could come as soon as
this week's meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy
Committee, which concludes Thursday, many economists say. The BOE's
benchmark interest rate has been held at a 322-year low of 0.5%
since March 2009 and the likely next step will be to reduce it to
0.25%, they forecast.
If officials don't move interest rates this week, economists
expect the committee to signal it is ready to act in August, when
officials will be equipped with new data as well as a fresh batch
of quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation to underpin their
decision.
Dominic Bryant, senior European economist at BNP Paribas SA,
said he sees little sense in delay, given the signs that the
economy was slowing even before the referendum. "Their view is the
economy has just been hit by a shock. They will want to support
confidence," he said.
Further policy easing, either through another rate cut or a
revival of a bond-buying program on hold since 2012, could follow
toward the end of 2016 if the economy slows markedly, economists
say.
Yet officials warn monetary policy isn't a cure-all.
Particularly, the central bank cannot resolve critical political
issues weighing on spending and investment, such as the U.K.'s
future access to the EU's vast single market for goods and
services. Mr. Carney said in his post-referendum speech that "one
uncomfortable truth is that there are limits to what the Bank of
England can do."
"I think that additional monetary easing probably isn't going to
give the economy much of a boost," said Peter Dixon, chief U.K.
economist at Commerzbank AG.
Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 12, 2016 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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