The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India
Increased in September
PR Newswire
MUMBAI, Oct. 21, 2014
MUMBAI, Oct. 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board
Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for India increased 0.9 percent in
September to 183.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent decline in
August and a 0.5 percent increase in July. Seven of the eight
components contributed positively to the index in September.
"After a disappointing August, the Leading Economic Index for
India rebounded in September, suggesting that momentum in the
economy continues," said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference
Board. "Nevertheless, India's economic recovery for the rest of
this year still faces downside risks, as highlighted by
surprisingly weak capital goods production as well as car sales in
the third quarter -- a sign that domestic demand remains
sluggish."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added:
"India's economic growth is likely to exceed 5 percent for 2014 as
increased confidence has supported business investment, exports
grew stronger, and corporate profitability strengthened.
Nevertheless, the pace at which these positive factors will last
depends on the performance of the global economy and the new
government's commitment to accelerate India's stalled economic
reforms."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for
India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1
percent in September to 203.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent
decline in August and a 0.4 percent decline in July. Two of the
four components contributed positively to the index in
September.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic
indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI
components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual
indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to
show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for
India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India was
launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index
has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of
India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia,
Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea,
Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(R) (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day
Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and
Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of
India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
For more information including full press release and technical
notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator
releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/
About The Conference Board
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with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2014 6-month
Jul Aug Sep Mar to Sep
Leading Economic Index 184.0 r181.8 r183.5 p
Percent Change 0.5 r -1.2 r 0.9 p 3.6
Diffusion 75.0 12.5 93.8 100.0
Coincident Economic Index 202.6 p201.2 p203.4 p
Percent Change -0.4 p -0.7 p 1.1 p 1.8
Diffusion 50.0 37.5 62.5 100.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
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