Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Options

I think that analysis was using Donepezil data at week 192 as a surrogate for a placebo (not the MABs), so the implication would be that AD disease progression at 192 weeks is about cut in half -- on average* -- by blarcamesine.

*I would not be surprised if blarcamesine worked much better than this for some people and much worse for others.

Your "good source" is Tom B? You and many others invested in this POS based on his advice. Maybe he changed his opinion after seeing the crappy OLE data. Sell on Monday—why wait for it to drop to $3?

If ema rejects this will go sava way, straight to penny land and will never recovers. Misleading takes 15 years to finish any trial from design to reporting tld.

People should demand approval. It's the best proven CNS drug. Rise up to help the sick No putting this drug back in the bag. It's results are out for the world to see.. imo

Just heard from a good source, that we will not get approved, but will get the option to run a new trial and hopefully address a few issues.
The stock may drop to $3 again, but it’s what it is.
. This want be a denial, just a recommendation from the EMA.
Missling had to go ahead and submit because he was up against the clock. We all knew that.
This will get him a few more years to make sure the medication is perfect.
In 2028 it will be worth the wait. We all know that the EMA will not approve this as is. I mean George is down to posting Ern is alive post every day.
This will give Missling time to bring in a partner in a few years and patience is key.
Good luck longs.!!’
Time is on our side.

We should all be very excited about Blarcamesine and it's over 9 years of proven best in class drug trial results and a very safe drug. Finally a drug that has the best proven track record and can help Alzheimer and Dementia patients. Endorsed by 58 of the best CNS doctors / scientist in the world. The people feel better when taking the drug. This drug should be approved immediately with it's results. Imo

Nice post dia76ca - Blarcamesine is nearly 50% more effective than the costly Mabs and 500% safer than Mabs. Blarcamasine should be approved immediately for Alzheimer's and Dementia patient treatment. Safest drug ever invented in the CNS space to date. Imo

This comparison of Annovis and Anavex Parkinson data is also interesting.
http://maxhitek.com/anavex/AnnovisPDcompare.html

Blarcamesine is nearly 50% more effective than the costly Mabs according to this analysis! And no brain bleeds or brain swelling!
http://maxhitek.com/anavex/AdasCogCompare.html

Thanks georgejjl....very interesting and helpful information!

Citrati, no problem: you think the trend seems to go in a certain way and maybe to a certain level. All maybes, no promises. Thanks for your opinions.

Great for Anavex



Good luck and GOD bless,

Ern is alive. I just ran into him, at random, at a cattle auction. It wasn't pre-arranged.

Another brand new patent application for Anavex

ENANTIOMERS OF A2-73, ANALOGUES, AND SIGMA AGONIST ACTIVITY

https://ppubs.uspto.gov/api/pdf/downloadPdf/20250120938?requestToken=eyJzdWIiOiI3YTU0YTNlZS1iZThhLTQxMzktOTgwNS00YWM5ZjE1MjlmN2UiLCJ2ZXIiOiI4NmNkMjdkZS03ZjFjLTRhNWYtOTQxYy1kM2RlNjA3OWEwZGEiLCJleHAiOjB9

Good luck and GOD bless,

Maybe. There are biomarkers of aging that might be used.
Biomarkers of aging can be based on laboratory measurements (e.g., telomere length, epigenetic clocks) or phenotypic data (e.g., hand grip strength). Other potential biomarkers are global hypomethylation and local hypermethylation. There is a lot of research going on to develop biomarkers for aging.

Which ones the FDA would be willing to accept is another question, but the FDA seems to be interested in using biomarkers to shorten the time frames for trials that otherwise would take many years.

"...The Sigma-1 receptor (S1R) is a protein expressed in the thymus. It's a multifunctional protein located in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and plays a role in various cellular processes. Studies suggest that the S1R is involved in the regulation of ion channels, protein quality control, and ER-mitochondrial communication, among other functions...."

"...The sigma-1 receptor, a protein involved in intracellular signaling and cellular processes, has been shown to be involved in aging and age-related neurodegenerative diseases. While there is evidence suggesting an increase in sigma-1 receptor density during healthy aging, some studies indicate a reduction in expression in specific conditions like Alzheimer's disease...."

Good. luck and GOD bless,

The volume might have been affected a bit by the holiday weekend

I’m selling when Missling sells. Easy decision.

The post stated "positive Potential" for 9.29 not a predication/statement it would. Confirmation is not until next week.
As of the end of weeks trading today, the odds for testing the 100period, now at 9.30, next week are IMO about 60-40 it happens. Mondays trading will bring confirmation, indecision or even failure. Why not an absolute? Not all indicators are signaling in a correlating manor yet. For example standard macd is trending up while a faster macd is trending down but hasn't down crossed the zero line. Market and or sector negativity could interfere with more upward movement.
Positive potential is not equivalent to firm prediction.

Your statement was "$8.95...let's hope for the small run up you predicted next week." My statement would be, Let's hope for the small run that the potential shows could happen next week. Then we can evaluate the next step, be it up or down.

PS: yes I liked the closing price. Would have liked to see more volume for the day and close.

Green Trades.
Yes, I am overall still bullish on AVXL.

So does having a doable PPS help you strategize an exit plan? You wake up one day and AVXL is 400/share, do you sell? On a later date it hits 600, do you sell? If approval comes to fruition one day (Europe, US, wherever) when do you start paring your share count?

Dale and Trigger both
mounted in Apple Valley, CA

As to Flakes…who knows

Thanks. The mouse thymus seems to decrease with aging as does the human thymus. Mouse studies would be very interesting!
https://biologyinsights.com/mouse-thymus-anatomy-t-cell-maturation-and-immunology/

Lilly's P/E is over 60, so if we were bought out for stock by them with that level of P/E, it would be great for Lilly stockholders but not so great for us.

Time: How a New Weight-Loss Pill Could Transform Health

https://www.yahoo.com/news/weight-loss-pill-could-transform-032234850.html

If someone were to buy AVXL near term, it would be great if it was Lilly.

Poorly written article by Time, no mention of which tests (p2 or p3) that this drug has passed.

On this MB Ern appears to be in a superposition of dead and alive through a quantum entanglement at a distance between two opposite spinning posters.

Some good advice for my fellow investors reposted by Nell Rebowe. I like it because it resonates with my leaning towards Bayesian reasoning.

It’s important not to let our biases stand in the way of our objectivity. To get good results, we need to be analytical rather than emotional.

Whenever I observe something in nature that I (or mankind) think is wrong, I assume that I’m wrong and try to figure out why what nature… pic.twitter.com/9glabXIeZ6— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) April 17, 2025

Clearly. At the Right Time Anavex Will Tell
In light of public comments by Missling a couple of years ago about "potential anti-aging effects of blarcamesine," I asked another Anavex executive not that long ago if the company had done preclinical studies on animals that demonstrated anti-aging effects of blarcamesine. After quickly averting his/her eyes, the executive, seeming not to want to pursue the topic, simply said that it would be too expensive and time consuming to run such a trial on humans.
Yes, antiaging studies on real humans are expensive, and take many years. Anavex hasn't done any of those.

But, as I've contended, antiaging studies on animals are not at all expensive, and don't take long. These studies are privately done in virtually every case where a new candidate drug, with a new or unrecognized mechanism of action (like blarcamesine) is being investigated, in conjunction with the studies of the new drug's potential teratogenicity, the tendency of a drug to induce birth defects. There are rather standardized lab tests to determine if a new drug molecule might be a teratogen. Those tests are very similar to antiaging tests.

Internally, Anavex has the lab test data that show that blarcamesine is not a teratogen. They also have data telling about blarcamesine's antiaging traits; awaiting the right time to lay those data on the table for public consideration.

Here are some very conservative #'s to think about.

If Blarcamesine is used by 2 million Europeans at $10/day (pill) ~ $3,500/year equals $7 billion in Revenue/ year

Estimate Conservatively after the partners cut and manufacturing costs, the bottom line to Anavex is $2 billion.

At a conservative PE of 20 and using 100 million shares

EPS = Total Profits divided by # of shares 2 billion/100 million = 20

Stock price = EPS X PE = 20X20

Stock price = $400/share.

Seems very doable to me. Other thoughts?

It takes a long time to test if humans in a clinical is ageing at a statistically different rate than their placebo cohort, something in the order of years and years and years.

That event is not nearly as important for $AVXL investors as whatever date Anavex hopefully will have filed good answers to the CHMP LoQ - we want to know the clock is ticking again!

And the NEXT Thing I want to hear is All requested info has been submitted!! Hope it is shorter than the average??
John k9uwa

Only 57.62K MOC orders today. Total 347.62k probably one of the lowest quantity trade days. $8.95 end of day price. And we are UP on the last day of the week. Always a good sign. If if the day was light trading.
John k9uwa

$8.95...let's hope for the small run up you predicted next week.

In light of public comments by Missling a couple of years ago about "potential anti-aging effects of blarcamesine," I asked another Anavex executive not that long ago if the company had done preclinical studies on animals that demonstrated anti-aging effects of blarcamesine. After quickly averting his/her eyes, the executive, seeming not to want to pursue the topic, simply said that it would be too expensive and time consuming to run such a trial on humans. Read into that anything you will...or nothing at all.

Within the next 2 weeks the #1 stop clock at 120 days after acceptance of the MAA filing with the EMA.

Good luck and GOD bless,

Which trigger? Roy Rogers or Long Rifle?

Computers running up price on very small volume. Question now is how much will price retrace into the close.

Would it be too much for both to hibernate during the Summer?

As an admitted trader, while an interest in Anavex (through Father's death WITH AD)
I am not wedded to the stock or Company. However, my nature is cynical and also
consider myself WELL bred to absorb and distill information rather than ape an opinion.

That may explain my occasional peek at George even though he is on ignore

you love to poke that bear George!

Why have I seen this old video over 50 times? First of all everyone online here is sick of it and don't want to see it anymore and also have you ever heard the phrase what's the definition of insanity?

Anavex Has Data, Not the Right Time Yet
What happens when middle aged mice are given blarcamesine? Do they live longer healthier lives?
I've seen no papers, murine clinical trials, that reveal this. But the drug's ability to favorably modulate and facilitate autophagic cell-keeping processes, where cellular wastes are cleared from aging cells, strongly suggests that blarcamesine will be an anti-aging drug.

In house, privately, Anavex surely has data on this. Running an aging trial on lab rats or mice with blarcamesine would be a very straight forward project. Have two genetically identical populations of lab murines. Raise them as per standard murine maintenance standards but give half a dose of blarcamesine each day. The other half gets everything the same but is fed a placebo that physically but not chemically matches the experimental population getting the blarcamesine. Then for a year or so closely monitor and record standard murine aging traits.

The same sort of test would have been done on the lab roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans, a commonly-used organism for aging studies. C. elegans studies can occur in months. Murine aging studies require a year or two.

These are standard, commonly performed, recognized aging studies. Anavex has had them done but will release their results at a favorable time. Too soon right now. If they did, experienced readers of this message board would know what our Anavex naysayers would post about the drug and its putative anti-aging data derived from two lab animals.

But after the European Medicines Agency approves blarcamesine for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, the release favorable anti-aging data in two common lab animals will be far more difficult to discount.

It would be worth a try.

boi, not sure how this will be pared (or ignored), but according to WSJ, there are millions of American Covid-10 sufferers with long-term effects, causing cognitive difficulties. I am sure a like number exists in EU. Doctors might/will try Blarcamesine to help these sufferers, which will increase the number receiving it.

https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/is-covid-rewriting-the-rules-of-aging-brain-decline-alarms-doctors-6ed3dfaa?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos_1

FYI - Article in today's online WSJ, but behind a paywall.


ANAVEX NOW ... RIGHT NOW ... MONO-STYLE ... FOR ALL AGES!!!

You will only know after the next update to the chart.

Yes, they can set the bank lending rate. No jest. Anything else is at the mercy of the market.

Agree that those possibilities exist.

If blarcamesine is the disease modifying drug we believe it to be, the market will enlarge as the number of AD survivors grow. So that 4M estimate would move upwards, depending on just how effective the drug may be in extending the time of early AD. (Not to mention off-label possibilities, such as MCI [a very large population], PD and other neuro diseases.)

Ern is in heaven. He fought the good fight and lived a good life but finally succumbed to Alzheimer’s disease. May he rest in peace.

Good luck and ERN is dead.

It means that price will close at or above all the moving averages and midlines except that higher green 100period.
That would be positive for positive potential next week for price to move closer to that 9.29 because the faster 4/8/13 ema's would be stacked fastest to slowest.
The 50period would be continuing to add support to price as would the midlines of the bb and kchannel. Price in the top half of those bands gives support to possible upward price movement.

Given the general market volatility the uncertainty is higher than periods of stability. Thus, without AVXL news the price action reflects that instability.

This also a weekend when Wallstreet types are leaving early for time off and let the computers finish out the day. Retail will have very little effect on price the rest of today IMO.

Green Trades.
Enjoy your time off.

Here's a recent analyst comment discussing pharma prospects earlier this week:

“We expect this earnings cycle will feature significant discussion on global manufacturing footprints and the ability to navigate hypothetical tariffs, as well as potential risks to regulatory development plans, particularly for therapies hoping to use accelerated approval pathways,” William Blair wrote on Monday.

https://www.biospace.com/business/j-j-sets-tariff-tone-as-q1-earnings-begin-to-roll-in

I recall that Missling is hoping to seek accelerated approval for blarcamesine at the FDA. The FDA has lost a lot of jobs lately, and perhaps that's why the analyst is concerned about its ability to process accelerated approvals.