Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In And What’s Next: Expert
28 May 2024 - 10:00PM
NEWSBTC
In his latest video update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt
Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s
halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market
has yet to fully price in the halving which took place on April 19.
Drawing on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an
in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price
movements post-halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases
still lie ahead. Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In Rekt
Capital began by revisiting the historical impact of Bitcoin
halvings, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the
block reward received by miners by half. This constriction in
supply, if demand remains constant or increases, typically leads to
a significant price increase. “The Bitcoin halving is not priced
in,” Rekt Capital asserted, pointing out that each previous halving
led to a rally that not only reached but also surpassed previous
all-time highs. “The halving every four years always precedes a
fantastic surge in Bitcoin’s price action towards new all-time
highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling
narrative that the post-halving market dynamics are predictable to
a degree, yet complex enough to remain partially unanticipated by
the market. “Two phases remain in the cycle: The Post-Halving
Re-Accumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),”
he stated. Related Reading: Parabolic Rally In The Making? Bitcoin
Regains $70,000 As Traders’ Paper Profits Collapse To 3% Focusing
on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each
halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts
about 160 days. During this period, the market often sees a
consolidation of price before a breakout leads to a parabolic
rally. “We are currently in a reaccumulation period again in this
cycle. This is post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing
the significance of this phase in setting the stage for the next
bull run. The analyst elaborated on the nature of these cycles,
noting deviations in the current trends compared to past cycles.
“This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated rate, with new all-time
highs appearing 260 days prior to the halving, a first in Bitcoin’s
history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while
historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new
dynamics that affect market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin
Bargains: Expert Reveals Ideal Buy Zones For Maximum Gain Rekt
Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections
that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection often seen
after reaching the high range of post-halving prices, a trend noted
in previous cycles. “Every time we’ve seen an initial attempt to
get to the range high resistance after the halving, that first
attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” he explained. This
observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains
post-halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a
realistic view of possible short-term retracements. The analyst
also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive
cycles, a factor that seasoned Bitcoin investors watch closely.
While each cycle’s peak has historically been higher than the last,
the rate of growth has slowed. “If this was a one-to-one extension
from what we saw in the previous cycle, getting us to $250,000
might be unrealistic this time around, and we are probably looking
at a more subdued increase,” he predicted. Nonetheless, Rekt
Capital maintained a bullish outlook for the long term, suggesting
that while the explosive growth rates of early cycles might not
repeat, the overall upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price
post-halving remains intact. “This is going to be the most
parabolic phase of the cycle where we see those gains come very
quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, affirming the
significant opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin investors. At
press time, BTC traded at $68,561. Featured image created with
DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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