Uncertainty Clouds Boeing 787 Program
24 June 2009 - 5:38AM
Dow Jones News
Boeing Co.'s (BA) announcement Tuesday of another hold-up on its
new 787 Dreamliner rattled investors already wary of problems
surrounding the company's defense programs and pension cost
headwind.
Shares of Boeing, which have sunk on worries about the 787 as
well as the weak commercial aircraft market, traded recently at
$43.57, down 7.1% for the day. That's well off the year's high of
$76.48.
JSA Research cut Boeing's stock rating to hold from buy, saying
it needs more clarity from Boeing on 787 plans.
"At this point, Boeing has provided us with nothing but
uncertainty," said Paul Nisbet, president of the independent
research company.
While the 787 is the focus of attention, Boeing has also
suffered setbacks on the defense side of its business, which
accounts for about half its $60 billion in annual revenue.
Boeing said the long-awaited first flight of the 787, to have
taken place this month, would be delayed because the plane failed a
stress test.
Boeing will need to reinforce a joint between the wings and body
of the plane, Scott Carson, head of Boeing's commercial airplanes
unit, said Tuesday. The fix is considered simple, and not related
to manufacturing process or revolutionary materials used to make
the 787, Carson said.
The company, which just last week confirmed the flight schedule,
said it may take several weeks to redo its schedule for first 787
flight, and for first delivery of the aircraft, earlier planned for
early 2010.
Nisbet said that, in the worst case, customers could have to
wait months longer for the new planes, which are already two years
behind their original schedule.
"We also have to consider how this will affect suppliers like
Spirit, Rockwell Collins and Goodrich," he said. Typically,
manufacturers like Boeing and rival Airbus must compensate both
customers and suppliers when aircraft production is delayed. Shares
of diversified suppliers Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL) and Goodrich
Corp. (GR) were off less than 2% Tuesday, while Spirit Aerosystems
(SPR), a Boeing spinoff, traded 6% lower at $14.11.
Boeing has already taken more than $1 billion of charges related
to five delays on the 787, as well as for an updated 747 model.
Nisbet said JSA will re-evaluate its rating on Boeing when the
plane maker provides more detail on the 787 program.
Boeing has more than 850 orders for the 787 from airline
customers around the world, although the economic downturn has
resulted in some cancellations this year.
While customers said Tuesday they were disappointed in the
delay, they're not likely to walk away from Boeing. In recent
years, both Boeing and Airbus have tripped over complexities
related to the design and production of new aircraft. But cost
savings on the 787, and Airbus A350, also long delayed, are worth
waiting for, according to customers.
Defense Business Also In Flux
Along with other U.S. defense contractors, Boeing has suffered
program cutbacks as the U.S. government takes a hard look at
defense spending.
Last year, Boeing lost a key contract to Airbus and its U.S.
partner, Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC), to build a new fleet of
refueling tankers for the U.S. Air Force. Boeing successfully
protested the contract award, and a new competition between the two
rivals is expected to heat up later this summer. Funds for the $39
billion program have been approved.
Both Boeing and Airbus plan to modify commercial aircraft for
military use. Speaking to reporters at the Paris Air Show last
week, Pat Shanahan, head of Boeing's commercial aircraft programs,
said "in Seattle, we consider the tanker program just as important
as the 787."
Boeing also faces rising pension expenses. Analyst Brent Miller
at Gradient Analytics said Boeing's pension fund this year is
underfunded by $8.4 billion, which could hurt future earnings.
While a recovery in world's financial markets may help recoup
some of that unrealized pension-fund loss, Boeing likely will be on
the hook to increase pension contributions for the next several
years, he said.
-By Ann Keeton, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4120;
ann.keeton@dowjones.com