Empowering Investors to Hedge Against Political Volatility

Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), an automated global electronic broker, today announced the planned launch of Forecast Contracts on upcoming US election results. This innovative addition allows US investors to trade their predictions on US political outcomes, alongside contracts on economic data releases and climate indicators, through the ForecastEx exchange. Forecast Contracts on US election results will begin trading on October 3 at 5:15 pm ET.

With the introduction of election-focused contracts, investors now have a powerful tool to manage portfolio risks tied to political uncertainty, while also expressing their views on key global events. By trading Forecast Contracts, investors can protect their portfolios from election-driven market movements or capitalize on their political insights.

The following Forecast Contracts on US election results will be available at launch:

  • Will Kamala Harris win the US Presidential Election in 2024?
  • Will Donald Trump win the US Presidential Election in 2024?
  • Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2024 general election?
  • Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States Senate during the 2024 general election?
  • Will Kari Lake (R) win Arizona's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Mike Rogers (R) win Michigan's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Tim Sheehy (R) win Montana's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Sam Brown (R) win Nevada's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Bernie Moreno (R) win Ohio's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Dave McCormick (R) win Pennsylvania's United States Senate election in 2024?
  • Will Eric Hovde (R) win Wisconsin's United States Senate election in 2024?

These contracts offer investors an easy way to take a position on key political events. For example, if an investor believes the United States Senate will be under Democrat control in 2025, they can purchase a “yes” contract. Conversely, if they believe the event will not occur, they can buy a “no” contract. Contract prices range from $0.02 to $0.99, reflecting the market’s evolving consensus on the likelihood of each outcome. E.g. $0.35 corresponds to 35% probability.

Thomas Peterffy, Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, remarked, “Forecast Contracts allow investors to act on the most crucial issues shaping our future. These contracts give traders a direct line to market sentiment on elections, helping them manage risk or express views on political events.”

Benefits of Forecast Contracts:

  • Hedging Against Uncertainty: Safeguarding portfolios from election-related volatility.
  • Profiting from Insights: Turning political knowledge into financial opportunity.
  • Trading with Ease: Accessing these new contracts through IBKR ForecastTrader, using an existing Interactive Brokers login.
  • Earning an Incentive: Earn an incentive coupon, paid monthly, on the daily closing value of a position. Currently 4.33% APY.

Forecast Contracts settle at a predefined value based on the event’s outcome — $1 for a correct prediction and $0 for an incorrect one — offering investors a simple, transparent way to engage with political and economic events. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.

Interactive Brokers plans to expand ForecastEx globally, covering a broader range of election events and other major issues. This strategic offering strengthens Interactive Brokers’ position as a leader in innovative financial products, giving investors a new edge in navigating politically uncertain markets. The CFTC-regulated ForecastEx LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers.

To learn more, visit IBKR ForecastTrader to start trading political predictions and protect portfolios from market swings tied to election outcomes.

  • US - IBKR ForecastTrader

About Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.:

Interactive Brokers Group affiliates provide automated trade execution and custody of securities, commodities, and foreign exchange around the clock on over 150 markets in numerous countries and currencies, from a single unified platform to clients worldwide. We serve individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, financial advisors and introducing brokers. Our four decades of focus on technology and automation has enabled us to equip our clients with a uniquely sophisticated platform to manage their investment portfolios. We strive to provide our clients with advantageous execution prices and trading, risk and portfolio management tools, research facilities and investment products, all at low or no cost, positioning them to achieve superior returns on investments. Interactive Brokers has consistently earned recognition as a top broker, garnering multiple awards and accolades from respected industry sources such as Barron’s, Investopedia, Stockbrokers.com, and many others.

Contacts for Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Media: Katherine Ewert, media@ibkr.com

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