SANTA CLARA, Calif.,
Oct. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The
ongoing trend of Americans migrating from densely populated
typically Democratic urban areas to more affordable suburbs and
rural areas that historically lean more Republican could
potentially have an impact on the outcome of the upcoming
presidential election, according to a new analysis released today
by realtor.com®. The report reveals that the
majority of out of town searches for homes in the battleground
states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin come from states and counties that
lean blue.
The analysis examines the searches of home shoppers
on realtor.com® looking outside their local market
over the last three years. For the purpose of this study, the
analysis assumes the political affiliation of the home searchers is
proportional to the distribution of their county of origin during
the 2016 presidential election. It does not account for changes in
political affiliation, other factors that may cause someone to
shift their allegiances, or the migration of renters, who tend to
move more frequently.
"For years homebuyers have looked from urban areas to more
suburban and rural areas to find the affordability that makes
buying a home possible. The additional time at home and flexibility
to work remotely as a result of the pandemic have further fueled
this trend," said realtor.com® Chief Economist
Danielle Hale. "Although many
factors will ultimately influence voting decisions, what we may
learn in just a little over a month is whether these shoppers ended
up changing the results in the states they moved into, or
not. We know a number of blue staters' interest in swing
state moves; but we just don't know how many of them actually did
move, and whether they themselves vote Democratic or
Republican."
According to the analysis, which examined all 50 states and the
District of Columbia, the majority
of out of town searches for homes in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- four of the 13 identified by a
Politico analysis as battleground states -- are coming from states
and counties that lean blue. These search patterns also indicate
that, with the exception of Georgia, the 30 states that went red in 2016
may be impacted one way or another by blue staters moving in. At
the same time, eight blue states and the District of Columbia are seeing an influx of
people from states that are red.
"A critical question - as blue staters move to swing or red
states, are they Democratic voters seeking out a more suburban or
rural lifestyle, or are they Republican voters wanting to move out
of a more Democratic neighborhood or do their political opinions
shift as they move to areas that have traditionally supported
Republican candidates? We may know how to better answer these
questions, once the votes are counted," said Hale.
Out of state searches in the four potential swing
states
Florida
(Red in 2016 and considered a toss up state in the upcoming
election by Politico)
- Realtor.com® analysis: The biggest share of
non-local home searches in Florida
are coming from Georgia (a red
state in 2016) followed by New
York, New Jersey,
Illinois and California, all blue states in 2016.
- At the county level, the highest share of non-local searches in
the state come from all blue counties -- Dekalb County, Ga., Cook County, Ill., Fulton County, Ga., New York County, N.Y. and Essex County, N.Y.
Michigan
(Red in 2016 and considered to be leaning blue in the upcoming
election by Politico)
- Realtor.com® analysis: The biggest share of
non-local home searches in Michigan are coming from Ohio, Illinois, California, Georgia and Florida.
- Although only two of the top viewing states are blue, the
highest share of non-local searches are from blue counties --
Cook County, Ill., Summit County, Ohio, Dekalb County, Ga., Cuyahoga County, Ohio and Franklin County, Ohio.
Pennsylvania
(Red in 2016 and considered to be leaning slightly blue in the
upcoming election by Politico)
- Realtor.com® analysis: The biggest share of
non-local home searches in Pennsylvania are coming from New York, New
Jersey, Maryland,
Ohio and Virginia. Of these five states, only
Ohio was red in 2016.
- At the county level, the highest share of non-local searches in
the state come from all blue counties, Washington, D.C., New York County, N.Y., Essex County, N.J., Kings County, N.Y. and Montgomery County, Md.
Wisconsin
(Red in 2016 and considered to be a toss up in the upcoming
election by Politico)
- Realtor.com® analysis: The biggest share of
non-local home searches in Wisconsin are coming from Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Iowa and California, three of which (Illinois, Minnesota and California are blue states).
- At the county level, four of the five highest share of
non-local searches in the state come from blue counties --
Cook County, Ill., Lake County, Ill., Hennepin County, Minn. and Bucks County, Pa. The exception is
McHenry County, Ill.
Editor's note: This analysis is not a prediction of the outcome
of the election. Whether these home searches benefit either
political party depends on factors that cannot be accurately
measured: first, realtor.com® does not have data on how
many of these searches actually resulted in a move to a new market,
though these searches have historically correlated well with
migration patterns; and second, there is no way to determine the
political leanings or party affiliation of those who do
cross-market searches and/or ultimately move.
About realtor.com®
Realtor.com®
makes buying, selling and living in homes easier and more rewarding
for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of
digital real estate 20 years ago, and today through its website and
mobile apps is a trusted source for the information, tools and
professional expertise that help people move confidently through
every step of their home journey. Using proprietary data science
and machine learning
technology, realtor.com® pairs buyers and
sellers with local agents in their market, helping take the
guesswork out of buying and selling a home. For
professionals, realtor.com® is a trusted
provider of consumer connections and branding solutions that help
them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is
operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV]
subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National
Association of REALTORS®. For more information,
visit realtor.com®.
Media Contact:
Janice McDill, 312.307.3134 or
janice.mcdill@move.com
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SOURCE realtor.com