By Akane Otani and Georgi Kantchev
Global stocks and bond yields slid Friday as investors' anxiety
mounted about the health of the world economy.
Major stock indexes have rallied this year despite a slowdown in
global growth, in part because central banks have signaled that,
for the foreseeable future, they will back off plans to normalize
monetary policy for the foreseeable future.
But signs that momentum continues to cool across major economies
have challenged investors, raising questions about whether a soft
patch of data could mark the start of a more persistent
downturn.
A report Friday showed factory output in the eurozone fell in
March at the fastest pace in nearly six years, while a gauge of
U.S. manufacturing activity slipped to its lowest level in nearly
two years. The data sent bond prices rising and yields sliding,
with the German 10-year bond yield dropping below zero for the
first time since 2016 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
falling to 2.459%, the lowest since January 2018.
Meanwhile, stocks across the world retreated. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 460.19 points, or 1.8%, to 25502.32, the
S&P 500 lost 54.17 points, or 1.9%, to 2800.71 and the Nasdaq
Composite declined 196.29 points, or 2.5%, to 7642.67.
All three indexes posted weekly losses, as did benchmark indexes
in France, the U.K. and Germany.
"The global economy has clearly become an issue, with big
headwinds there," said Tim Anderson, managing director at
broker-dealer TJM Investments, pointing to concerns in Europe and
China in particular.
For much of 2019, stocks and bond yields had moved in opposite
directions. That troubled fund managers, who noted bond yields
typically rise -- not fall -- when investors are confident in
growth prospects.
But they moved lower in lockstep Friday, as investors across
markets bet on an environment in which growth across the world is
expected to slow.
Friday's data "confirms the softening data tone the market has
been observing and central banks have been forced to take note of,"
said Matt Cairns, strategist at Rabobank.
Bank stocks slid again Friday, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index of
large lenders posting its biggest one-week slide since 2016.
The group has been hit particularly hard by recent stock
declines, in part because lower interest rates and slowing growth
bode poorly for lending profitability. Bank of America shed $1.17,
or 4.2%, to $27.01, and Morgan Stanley declined $1.41, or 3.3%, to
$41.72.
Commodities prices and stock sectors tied to them retreated,
underscoring the dimming outlook for the global economy.
The S&P 500 energy and materials sectors lost more than 2%
apiece, while copper futures -- which tend to rise when investors
expect growth to boost consumption of industrial materials --
settled at their lowest level in a month.
Part of investors' anxiety, many say, stems from doubts about
whether central banks' wait-and-see approach to monetary policy
will be enough to avert a global economic protracted slowdown.
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials indicated they are
unlikely to raise interest rates this year and may be nearly
finished with the series of increases they began more than three
years ago. On Wednesday, the central bank suggested it could leave
its policy rate unchanged for the rest of the year.
This change of tactic by the Fed has divided the market. For
some, it is the latest sign that economic growth in the U.S. and
around the world is slowing. Others think a more dovish Fed could
prolong the bull market.
"The market is polarized: Half thinks we are in a bull-market
recovery and the other half thinks we are in a bear-market rally,"
said Eoin Murray, head of investment at asset manager Hermes.
To be sure, many believe that in the U.S., a recession isn't
imminent.
Corporate earnings, while cooling, are still expected to post
single-digit percentage growth in 2019, according to FactSet.
The labor market has added jobs for 101 consecutive months, its
longest streak ever, and unemployment remains low.
Even weaker segments of the economy have appeared to stabilize
in recent months, with data Friday showing that sales of previously
owned homes soared 12% in February -- far more than economists had
expected.
But the question investors say they are contending with is
whether the slowdown in the eurozone could have a ripple effect,
hitting profits at multinationals in the U.S.
In one warning sign, a closely watched yield curve, the spread
between three-month and 10-year Treasurys, inverted Friday for the
first time since 2007.
Investors and Fed officials closely watch the dispersion of
short- and longer-term yields because the three-month yield has
exceeded the 10-year yield ahead of every recession since 1975.
In another sign of pessimism, traders doubled down on bets that
the Fed will go as far as lowering rates soon -- something the
central bank hasn't done since the midst of the financial crisis in
2008.
Federal-funds futures, used by traders to place bets on the
course of monetary policy, showed the market pricing in a roughly
57% chance of the Fed lowering rates by the end of the year, up
from 11% a month ago, according to CME Group.
Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev
at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2019 22:16 ET (02:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.