Soybean Futures Fall on Concerns Over Global Supply -- Daily Grain Highlights
28 January 2023 - 7:25AM
Dow Jones News
By Paulo Trevisani
--Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.9% to $15.09 1/2 a bushel
on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, as traders brace for
Brazilian and Argentine supplies hitting export markets.
--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.3% to $7.50 a bushel.
--Corn for March delivery rose 0.1% to $6.83 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Southern Soy: The decline in soybean futures can be attributed
to "the prospect of improved Brazilian hedge pressure due to their
expanding harvest," AgResource said in a report, which also cited
soaking rain across key crop areas in Argentina. The rainfall is
expected to boost Argentine production, and it is forecast to
persist through the weekend. AgResource also noted that "Argentine
soymeal basis is starting to leak which will accelerate in the
weeks ahead as Brazilian crushers receive new crop soybeans and
push product into export."
Corn Breaks: "The trade seems to believe that the damage done to
the Argentine crop will eventually support better demand for U.S.
corn and there is also more reporting that the Ukraine corn crop
may drop," Summit's Tomm Pfitzenmaier said in a report. "These
concerns have the trade putting new money to work on the long side
of the corn market." He expected corn to trade in a range and may
even work its way up closer to $7 a bushel.
INSIGHT
Buyers to Come: Grain futures have lost steam, but RCM said it
expects buyers to be attracted by price declines. "The Buenos Aires
Grains Exchange said desperately needed rain was expected to hit
Argentine growing areas this week," the firm said in a report.
"Technical trends have corn sideways with a bullish bias, beans
sideways with a neutral bias, and wheat sideways with a neutral
bias."
Russian Wheat: Supply in Russia "is visibly depressing wheat
prices," despite uncertainties about the size of Russian crops last
year, Commerzbank's Carsten Fritsch said in a note. He pointed to
2022 estimates ranging from 91 million metric tons to 104 million
metric tons, while forecasts for this year are below 100 million.
"A high-ranking USDA official explained that the analyses of the
weather and of previous crops did not support the high crop volume
predicted by Russia," Mr. Fritsch wrote. Forecasts for 2023 are
between 80 million and 85 million tons but still a large crop by
comparison with the long-term average" he said.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections
report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its monthly agricultural prices report
at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks
report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its monthly grain crushings report at 3
p.m. ET Wednesday.
--Corteva Inc. will release its fourth quarter earnings report
after the stock market closes on Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30
a.m. ET Thursday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report
at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com;
@ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 27, 2023 15:10 ET (20:10 GMT)
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