By Ed Frankl

Economic activity is expected to contract again in the U.S., albeit at a slower pace than predicted a month ago, with a shallow recession expected in the first six months of 2024.

The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index fell 0.5% to 103.0 in November after falling 1.0% in October, matching a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Housing and labor-market indicators weakened in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.

A short, shallow recession is expected in the first half of 2024, Zabinska-La Monica added.

However, suggesting bad news for the economy may be starting to ease, the headline indicator contracted 3.5% in the six months to November, a smaller decrease than the 4.3% fall in the prior six months.

The Leading Economic Index is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle. The indicator is based on 10 components, among them initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers' new orders, building permits of new private housing units, stock prices and consumers' expectations.

Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 21, 2023 10:31 ET (15:31 GMT)