ITEM 7.
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MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
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This information should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes included in Item 8 of Part I of this Annual Report (the Report). The discussion and analysis
which follows may contain trend analysis and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial results. Words
such as anticipate, expect, intend, plan, believe, seek, outlook and estimate as well as similar words and phrases signify forward-looking statements.
PowerShares DB Precious Metals Funds forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and conditions and important factors, risks and uncertainties may cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our
forward-looking statements.
You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Except as expressly required by the Federal
securities laws, DB Commodity Services LLC ( the Managing Owner) undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or the risks, uncertainties or other factors described in this Report, as a result of
new information, future events or changed circumstances or for any other reason after the date of this Report.
Overview / Introduction
The Fund and the Master Fund seek to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity
IndexOptimum Yield Precious Metals Excess Return (DBLCI-OY Precious Metals ER, or Index) over time, plus the excess, if any, of the Master Funds interest income from its holdings of United States Treasury
Obligations and other high credit quality short-term fixed income securities over the expenses of the Fund and the Master Fund. The Limited Shares are designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in a group of
commodity futures on U.S. and non-U.S. markets.
The Fund pursues its investment objective by investing substantially all of its assets in
the Master Fund. The Master Fund pursues its investment objective by investing in a portfolio of exchange traded futures contracts, or the Index Contracts, on the commodities comprising the Index, or the Index Commodities. The Index Commodities are
gold and silver. The Index is composed of notional amounts of each of the Index Commodities. The Master Funds portfolio also includes United States Treasury Obligations and other high credit quality short-term fixed income securities for
deposit with the Master Funds Commodity Broker as margin.
The Index is comprised of futures contracts on the Index Commodities that
expire in a specific month and trade on a specific exchange (the Index Contracts). As disclosed in the Funds Prospectus, if the Managing Owner determines in its commercially reasonable judgment that it has become impracticable or
inefficient for any reason for the Master Fund to gain full or partial exposure to any Index Commodity by investing in a specific Index Contract, the Master Fund may invest in a futures contract referencing the particular Index Commodity other than
the Index Contract or, in the alternative, invest in other futures contracts not based on the particular Index Commodity if, in the commercially reasonable judgment of the Managing Owner, such futures contracts tend to exhibit trading prices that
correlate with such Index Commodity.
The sponsor of the Index, or the Index Sponsor, is Deutsche Bank AG London. DBLCI and Deutsche
Bank Liquid Commodity Index are trademarks of Deutsche Bank AG. Trademark applications in the United States are pending with respect to both the Fund and the Index. Deutsche Bank AG London is an affiliate of the Trust, the Fund, the Master
Trust, the Master Fund and the Managing Owner.
Under the Trust Agreements of the Trust and the Master Trust, Wilmington Trust Company, the
Trustee of the Trust and the Master Trust, has delegated to the Managing Owner the exclusive management and control of all aspects of the business of the Trust, the Fund and the Master Trust and Master Fund. The Trustee will have no duty or
liability to supervise
16
or monitor the performance of the Managing Owner, nor will the Trustee have any liability for the acts or omissions of the Managing Owner.
The Index Sponsor obtains information for inclusion in, or for use in the calculation of, the Index from sources the Index Sponsor considers reliable.
None of the Index Sponsor, the Managing Owner, the Trust, the Fund, the Master Trust, the Master Fund or any of their respective affiliates accepts responsibility for or guarantees the accuracy and/or completeness of the Index or any data included
in the Index.
The Limited Shares are intended to provide investment results that generally correspond to the changes, positive or
negative, in the levels of the Index over time. The value of the Limited Shares is expected to fluctuate in relation to changes in the value of the Master Funds portfolio. The market price of the Limited Shares may not be identical to the net
asset value per Limited Share, but these two valuations are expected to be very close.
Performance Summary
This Report covers the three months ended December 31, 2007 and the period from January 3, 2007 (commencement of investment operations) to
December 31, 2007 (herein referred to as the Period Ended December 31, 2007). The Fund commenced trading on the American Stock Exchange (the Amex) on January 5, 2007.
Performance of the Fund and the exchange traded Limited Shares are detailed below in Results of Operations. Past performance of the Fund is
not necessarily indicative of future performance.
The Index is intended to reflect the change in market value of the Index Commodities. In
turn, the Index is intended to reflect the precious metals sector. The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Optimum Yield Precious Metals Total Return, or DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR, consists of the Index plus 3 month United States
Treasury Obligations returns. Past Index results are not necessarily indicative of future changes, positive or negative, in the Index closing levels.
The section Summary of DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR and Underlying Index Commodity Returns for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2007 and the period Ended December 31, 2007 below provides
an overview of the changes in the closing levels of DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR by disclosing the change in market value of each underlying component Index Commodity through a surrogate (and analogous) index plus 3 month United
States Treasury Obligations returns. Please note also that the Funds objective is to track the Index (not DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR) and the Fund does not attempt to outperform or underperform the Index. The Index employs the optimum
yield rolls method with the objective of mitigating the negative effects of contango, the condition in which distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices, and maximizing the positive effects of backwardation, a condition opposite of
contango.
Summary of DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR and Underlying Index Commodity Returns for the Three Months Ended
December 31, 2007 and the Period Ended December 31, 2007
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Index
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Total returns for index in the DBLCI-OY
Precious Metals TR
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Three Months
Ended
December 31,
2007
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Period Ended
December 31,
2007
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DB Gold
Indices
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11.62%
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30.68%
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DB Silver
Indices
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6.67%
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16.84%
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TOTAL RETURN
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10.63%
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27.86%
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In the current interest rate environment, the total return on an investment in the Fund is
expected to outperform the Index and underperform the DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR. The only difference between the Index and the DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR is that the Index does not include interest income from a hypothetical basket of
fixed income securities while the DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR does include such a component. The difference between the Index and the DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR is attributable entirely to the hypothetical interest income from this
hypothetical basket of fixed income securities. The Funds interest income from its holdings of fixed-income securities is expected to exceed the Funds fees and expenses, and the amount of such excess is expected to be distributed
periodically. The market price of the
17
Limited Shares is expected closely to track the Index. The total return on an investment in the Fund over any period is the sum of the capital appreciation
or depreciation of the Limited Shares over the period, plus the amount of any distributions during the period. Consequently, in the current interest rate environment, the Funds total return is expected to outperform the Index by the amount of
the excess of its interest income over its fees and expenses but, as a result of the Funds fees and expenses, the total return on the Fund is expected to underperform the DBLCI-OY Precious Metals TR. If the Funds fees and expenses
were to exceed the Funds interest income from its holdings of fixed income securities, the Fund would underperform the Index.
Net Asset Value
Net asset value means the total assets of the Master Fund, including, but not limited to, all futures, cash and investments less total
liabilities of the Master Fund, each determined on the basis of U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, consistently applied under the accrual method of accounting. In particular, net asset value includes any unrealized appreciation or
depreciation on open commodity futures contracts, and any other credit or debit accruing to the Master Fund but unpaid or not received by the Master Fund. All open commodity futures contracts will be calculated at their then current market value,
which will be based upon the settlement price for that particular commodity futures contract traded on the applicable exchange on the date with respect to which net asset value is being determined; provided, that if a commodity futures contract
could not be liquidated on such day, due to the operation of daily limits or other rules of the exchange upon which that position is traded or otherwise, the settlement price on the most recent day on which the position could have been liquidated
will be the basis for determining the market value of such position for such day. The Managing Owner may in its discretion (and only under extraordinary circumstances, including, but not limited to, periods during which a settlement price of a
futures contract is not available due to exchange limit orders or force majeure type events such as systems failure, natural or man-made disaster, act of God, armed conflict, act of terrorism, riot or labor disruption or any similar intervening
circumstance) value any asset of the Master Fund pursuant to such other principles as the Managing Owner deems fair and equitable so long as such principles are consistent with normal industry standards. Interest earned on the Master Funds
brokerage account is accrued monthly. The amount of any distribution is a liability of the Master Fund from the day when the distribution is declared until it is paid.
The Fund invests substantially all of its assets in the Master Fund in a master-feeder structure. The Fund holds no investment assets other than Master Fund Limited Units. The Fund is the majority Master Fund Limited
Unit owner and the Managing Owner holds a minority interest in the Master Fund. Each Limited Share issued by the Fund correlates with the Master Fund Limited Unit issued by the Master Fund and held by the Fund.
Net asset value per Master Fund Limited Unit and Master Fund General Unit (collectively, Master Fund Units) is the net asset value of the
Master Fund divided by the number of outstanding Master Fund Units. Because there is a one-to-one correlation between Limited Shares and the Master Fund Limited Units, the net asset value per Limited Share and the net asset value per Master Fund
Limited Unit are equal.
Critical Accounting Policies
The Funds and Master Funds critical accounting policies are as follows:
Preparation of the
financial statements and related disclosures in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles requires the application of appropriate accounting rules and guidance, as well as the use of estimates, and requires management to make
estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, revenue and expense and related disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities during the reporting period of the consolidated financial statements and
accompanying notes. Both the Funds and the Master Funds application of these policies involve judgments and actual results may differ from the estimates used.
The Master Fund holds a significant portion of its assets in futures contracts and United States Treasury Obligations, both of which are recorded on a trade date basis and at fair value in the consolidated financial
statements, with changes in fair value reported in the consolidated statement of income and expenses. Generally, fair values are based on quoted market closing prices. However, when market closing prices are not available, the Managing Owner may
value an asset of the Master Fund pursuant to policies the Managing Owner has adopted, which are consistent with normal industry standards.
Realized gains (losses) and changes in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on open positions are determined on a specific identification basis and recognized in the consolidated statement of income and expenses in the period in which the
contract is closed or the changes occur, respectively.
18
Interest income on United States Treasury Obligations is recognized on an accrual basis when earned.
Premiums and discounts are amortized or accreted over the life of the United States Treasury Obligations.
Market Risk
Trading in futures contracts involves the Master Fund entering into contractual commitments to purchase a particular commodity at a specified date and
price. The market risk associated with the Master Funds commitments to purchase commodities is limited to the gross or face amount of the contracts held.
The Master Funds exposure to market risk is also influenced by a number of factors including the volatility of interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the liquidity of the markets in which the
contracts are traded and the relationships among the contracts held. The inherent uncertainty of the Master Funds trading as well as the development of drastic market occurrences could ultimately lead to a loss of all or substantially all of
the investors capital.
Credit Risk
When the Master Fund enters into futures contracts, the Master Fund will be exposed to credit risk that the counterparty to the contract will not meet its obligations. The counterparty for futures contracts traded on United States and on
most of foreign futures exchanges is the clearing house associated with the particular exchange. In general, clearing houses are backed by their corporate members who may be required to share in the financial burden resulting from the nonperformance
by one of their members and, as such, should significantly reduce this credit risk. In cases where the clearing house is not backed by the clearing members (
i.e
., some foreign exchanges), it may be backed by a consortium of banks or other
financial institutions. There can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearing member or clearinghouse will meet its obligations to the Master Fund.
The Commodity Broker, when acting as the Master Funds futures commission merchant in accepting orders for the purchase or sale of domestic futures contracts, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account
for and segregate as belonging to the Master Fund all assets of the Master Fund relating to domestic futures trading and the Commodity Broker is not allowed to commingle such assets with other assets of the Commodity Broker. In addition, CFTC
regulations also require the Commodity Broker to hold in a secure account assets of the Master Fund related to foreign futures trading. Also, see Item 1A. Risk Factors Failure of Futures Commission Merchants or Commodity
Brokers to Segregate Assets May Increase Losses; Despite Segregation of Assets, the Master Fund Remains at Risk of Significant Losses Because the Master Fund May Only Receive a Pro-rata Share of the Assets.
Liquidity
All of the Master Funds source of
capital is derived from the Fund through the Funds offering of Limited Shares to Authorized Participants. Authorized Participants may then subsequently redeem such Limited Shares. The Master Fund in turn allocates its net assets to commodities
trading. A significant portion of the net asset value is held in United States Treasury Obligations and cash, which is used as margin for the Master Funds trading in commodities. The percentage that United States Treasury Obligations bear to
the total net assets will vary from period to period as the market values of the Master Funds commodity interests change. The balance of the net assets is held in the Master Funds commodity trading account. Interest earned on the Master
Funds interest-bearing funds is paid to the Master Fund.
The Master Funds commodity contracts may be subject to periods of
illiquidity because of market conditions, regulatory considerations or for other reasons. For example, commodity exchanges generally have the ability to limit fluctuations in certain commodity futures contract prices during a single day by
regulations referred to as daily limits. During a single day, no trades may be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. Once the price of a particular futures contract has increased or decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit,
positions in the commodity can neither be taken nor liquidated unless the traders are willing to effect trades at or within the limit. Commodity futures prices have occasionally moved the daily limit for several consecutive days with little or no
trading. Such market conditions could prevent the Master Fund from promptly liquidating its commodity futures positions.
Because the
Master Fund trades futures contracts, its capital is at risk due to changes in the value of future contracts (market risk) or the inability of counterparties (including exchange clearinghouses) to perform under the terms of the contracts (credit
risk).
On any business day, an Authorized Participant may place an order with the Managing Owner to redeem one or more Baskets. Redemption
orders must be placed by 10:00 a.m., New York time. The day on which the Managing Owner
19
receives a valid redemption order is the redemption order date. Redemption orders are irrevocable. The redemption procedures allow Authorized Participants to
redeem Baskets. Individual Shareholders may not redeem directly from the Fund. By placing a redemption order, an Authorized Participant agrees to deliver the Baskets to be redeemed through DTCs book-entry system to the Fund no later than noon,
New York time, on the business day immediately following the redemption order date. By placing a redemption order, and prior to receipt of the redemption proceeds, an Authorized Participants DTC account is charged the non-refundable
transaction fee due for the redemption order.
Cash Flows
The primary cash flow activities of the Fund are to raise capital from Authorized Participants through the issuance of Limited Shares in the Fund. This cash is invested into the Master Fund where it is used to invest
in United States Treasury Obligations and to meet margin requirements as a result of the positions taken in futures contracts to match the fluctuations of the Index the Fund is tracking.
Operating Activities
Net cash flow used for operating activities was $47.2 million for the Period
Ended December 31, 2007. This amount primarily includes net purchases and sales of United States Treasury Obligations which are held at fair value on the statement of financial condition. During the Period Ended December 31, 2007 $121.2
million was paid to purchase United States Treasury Obligations and $72.9 million was received from sales of maturing contracts. Unrealized appreciation on United States Treasury Obligations and futures increased by $5.0 million during the Period
Ended December 31, 2007.
Financing Activities
The Funds net cash flow provided by financing activities was $48.6 million during the Period Ended December 31, 2007. This included $60.1 million from the sale of Limited shares to Authorized Participants
during the Period Ended December 31, 2007.
Results of Operations
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2007 AND THE PERIOD ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2007
The Fund was launched on January 3, 2007 at $25.00 per share and listed for trading on the Amex on January 5, 2007.
The
Fund and the Master Fund seek to track changes in the closing levels of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity IndexOptimum Yield Precious Metals Excess Return (DBLCI-OY Precious Metals ER, or Index), over time, plus the excess, if
any, of the Master Funds interest income from its holdings of United States Treasury Obligations and other high credit quality short-term fixed income securities over the expenses of the Fund and the Master Fund. The following graphs
illustrate changes in (i) the price of the Limited Shares (as reflected by the graph DBP), (ii) the Funds NAV (as reflected by the graph DBPNAV), and (iii) the closing levels of the Index (as reflected by
the graph DBPGIX). The price of the Limited Shares generally has exceeded the levels of the Index primarily because the Limited Share price reflects interest income from the Master Funds collateral holdings whereas the Index does
not consider such interest income. There can be no assurances that the price of the Limited Shares will continue to exceed the Index levels.
20
COMPARISON OF DBP, DBPNAV AND DBPGIX FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED
DECEMBER 31, 2007 AND THE PERIOD ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2007
NEITHER THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND NOR THE PRIOR INDEX LEVELS AND CHANGES, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, SHOULD
BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF THE FUNDS FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
See Additional Legends below
21
Additional Legends
Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity IndexOptimum Yield Precious Metals Excess Return is an index and does not reflect (i) actual trading and (ii) any fees or expenses.
WHILE THE FUNDS OBJECTIVE IS NOT TO GENERATE PROFIT THROUGH ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, BUT IS TO TRACK THE INDEX, BECAUSE THE INDEX WAS ESTABLISHED IN JULY 2006,
CERTAIN INFORMATION RELATING TO THE INDEX CLOSING LEVELS MAY BE CONSIDERED TO BE HYPOTHETICAL. HYPOTHETICAL INFORMATION MAY HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.
WITH RESPECT TO INDEX DATA, NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT THE INDEX WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE ANNUAL OR CUMULATIVE CLOSING LEVELS CONSISTENT WITH OR SIMILAR TO
THOSE SET FORTH HEREIN. SIMILARLY, NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT THE FUND WILL GENERATE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THE FUNDS PAST PERFORMANCE OR THE HISTORICAL ANNUAL OR CUMULATIVE CHANGES IN THE INDEX CLOSING LEVELS. IN FACT, THERE
ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY INVESTMENT METHODOLOGIES, WHETHER ACTIVE OR PASSIVE.
WITH RESPECT TO INDEX DATA, ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL INFORMATION IS THAT IT IS GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. TO THE EXTENT THAT INFORMATION PRESENTED HEREIN RELATES TO THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1988 THROUGH JUNE
2006, THE INDEX CLOSING LEVELS REFLECT THE APPLICATION OF THE INDEXS METHODOLOGY, AND SELECTION OF INDEX COMMODITIES, IN HINDSIGHT.
NO HYPOTHETICAL
RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE ARE NUMEROUS FACTORS, INCLUDING THOSE DESCRIBED UNDER ITEM 1A: RISK FACTORS HEREIN, RELATED TO THE COMMODITIES MARKETS IN GENERAL
OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FUNDS EFFORTS TO TRACK THE INDEX OVER TIME WHICH CANNOT BE, AND HAVE NOT BEEN, ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF THE INDEX INFORMATION SET FORTH ON THE FOLLOWING PAGES, ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS FOR THE FUND. FURTHERMORE, THE INDEX INFORMATION DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK OR ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FEES AND COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUND.
THE MANAGING OWNER HAS HAD LIMITED EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR ITSELF OR FOR CLIENTS. BECAUSE THERE ARE LIMITED ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE INDEX CLOSING LEVELS SET FORTH HEREIN, PROSPECTIVE
INVESTORS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THE ANNUAL OR CUMULATIVE INDEX RESULTS.
FOR THE PERIOD ENDED DECEMBER
31, 2007
Fund Limited Share Price Performance
The Fund was launched on January 3, 2007 at $25.00 per share and listed for trading on the Amex on January 5, 2007.
On December 28, 2007, the Fund made a $0.60 per share distribution to Limited shareholders of record as of December 19, 2007.
For the Period Ended December 31, 2007, the Amex market value of Limited Shares increased 23.88% from $25.00 per share to $30.97 per share. The Limited Share price low and high for the Period Ended
December 31, 2007 and related change from the Limited Share price on January 3, 2007 (commencement of investment operations) was as follows: Limited Shares traded from a low of $24.04 per share (-3.84%) on January 5, 2007 to a high of
$31.90 per share (+27.60%) on November 8, 2007. Total return for the Fund, on a market value basis was 26.28%, including the above noted distribution for the period.
22
Fund Limited Share Net Asset Performance
For the Period Ended December 31, 2007, the net asset value of each Limited Share increased 23.72% from $25.00 per share to $30.93 per share. On
December 28, 2007, the Fund made a $0.60 per share distribution to Limited shareholders of record as of December 19, 2007. Therefore, total return on a net asset value basis, for the Fund, including the distribution, was 26.12%.
Net income for the Period Ended December 31, 2007 was $7.1 million, resulting from $1.1 million of interest income supplemented by net
realized gains of $1.2 million and net unrealized gains of $5.0 million and operating expenses of $0.2 million.
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED
DECEMBER 31, 2007
Fund Limited Share Price Performance
On December 28, 2007, the Fund made a $0.60 per share distribution to Limited shareholders of record as of December 19, 2007.
For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2007, the Amex market value of Limited Shares increased 8.25% from $28.61 per share to $30.97 per share. The Limited Share price low and high for the Three Months ended
December 31, 2007 and related change from the Limited Share price on September 30, 2007 was as follows: Limited Shares traded from a low of $27.96 per share (-2.27%) on October 3, 2007 to a high of $31.90 per share (+11.50%) on
November 8, 2007. Total return for the Fund, on a market value basis was 10.35%, including the above noted distribution, for the three month period.
Fund Limited Share Net Asset Performance
For the Three Months Ended December 31, 2007, the net asset value of
each Limited Share increased 8.15% from $28.60 per share to $30.93 per share. On December 28, 2007, the Fund made a $0.60 per share distribution to Limited shareholders of record as of December 19, 2007. Therefore, total return on a net
asset value basis, for the Fund, including the distribution, was 10.24%.
Net income for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2007 was
$3.6 million, resulting from $0.4 million of interest income supplemented by net realized gains of $0.3 million and net unrealized gains of $3.0 million and operating expenses of $0.1 million.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements and Contractual Obligations
In the normal course of its business, the Master Fund is party to financial instruments with off-balance sheet risk. The term off-balance sheet risk refers to an unrecorded potential liability that, even though it does not
appear on the balance sheet, may result in a future obligation or loss. The financial instruments used by the Master Fund are commodity futures, whose values are based upon an underlying asset and generally represent future commitments which have a
reasonable possibility to be settled in cash or through physical delivery. The financial instruments are traded on an exchange and are standardized contracts.
The Fund and the Master Fund have not utilized, nor do they expect to utilize in the future, special purpose entities to facilitate off-balance sheet financing arrangements and have no loan guarantee arrangements or
off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind, other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business noted above, which may include indemnification provisions related to certain risks service providers undertake in performing services
which are in the best interests of the Fund and the Master Fund. While the Funds and the Master Funds exposure under such indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, these general business indemnifications are not expected to have a
material impact on either the Funds or the Master Funds financial position.
The Fund and Master Funds contractual
obligations are with the Managing Owner and the Commodity Broker. Management Fee payments made to the Managing Owner are calculated as a fixed percentage of the Master Funds net asset value. Commission payments to the Commodity Broker are on a
contract-by-contract, or round-turn, basis. As such, the Managing Owner cannot anticipate the amount of payments that will be required under these arrangements for future periods as net asset values are not known until a future date. These
agreements are effective for one year terms, renewable automatically for additional one year terms unless terminated. Additionally, these agreements may be terminated by either party for various reasons.
23
ITEM 7A.
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QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
|
INTRODUCTION
The Fund is designed to replicate positions in a commodity index. The market sensitive instruments held by it are
subject to the risk of trading loss. Unlike an operating company, the risk of market sensitive instruments is integral, not incidental, to the Funds main line of business.
Market movements can produce frequent changes in the fair market value of the Funds open positions and, consequently, in its earnings and cash
flow. The Funds market risk is primarily influenced by changes in the price of commodities.
Value at Risk is a measure of the
maximum amount which the Fund could reasonably be expected to lose in a given market sector. However, the inherent uncertainty in the markets in which the Fund trades and the recurrence in the markets traded by the Fund of market movements far
exceeding expectations could result in actual trading or non-trading losses far beyond the indicated Value at Risk or the Funds experience to date (i.e., risk of ruin). In light of this, as well as the risks and uncertainties
intrinsic to all future projections, the inclusion of the quantification included in this section should not be considered to constitute any assurance or representation that the Funds losses in any market sector will be limited to Value at
Risk or by the Funds attempts to manage its market risk.
Standard of Materiality
Materiality as used in this section, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, is based on an assessment of reasonably
possible market movements and the potential losses caused by such movements, taking into account the leverage, and multiplier features of the Funds market sensitive instruments.
QUANTIFYING THE FUNDS TRADING VALUE AT RISK
Quantitative Forward-Looking Statements
The following quantitative disclosures regarding the Funds market risk
exposures contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor from civil liability provided for such statements by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (set forth in Section 27A of the Securities
Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934). All quantitative disclosures in this section are deemed to be forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor, except for statements of historical fact (such as the
dollar amount of maintenance margin required for market risk sensitive instruments held at the end of the reporting period).
The
Funds risk exposure in the various market sectors traded by the Fund is quantified below in terms of Value at Risk. Exchange maintenance margin requirements have been used by the Fund as the measure of its Value at Risk. Maintenance margin
requirements are set by exchanges to equal or exceed 95-99% of the maximum one-day losses at fair value of any given contract incurred during the time period over which historical price fluctuations are researched for purposes of establishing margin
levels. The maintenance margin levels are established by exchanges using historical price studies as well as an assessment of current market volatility and economic fundamentals to provide a probabilistic estimate of the maximum expected near-term
one-day price fluctuation.
THE FUNDS TRADING VALUE AT RISK IN DIFFERENT MARKET SECTORS
The following table indicates the trading Value at Risk associated with the Funds open positions by market category as of December 31, 2007.
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Market Sector
|
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Delivery Month
|
|
Value at Risk (VaR) $
Value*
|
|
Value at Risk
(VaR) *
|
|
Number of times VaR
Exceeded
|
Gold
|
|
January 2009
|
|
1,082,782
|
|
1.95%
|
|
7
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Silver
|
|
August 2008
|
|
445,331
|
|
0.80%
|
|
7
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Aggregate/Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.66%
|
|
7
|
24
* The VaR for a contract represents the one day, downside risk, under normal market conditions, with a 99% confidence
level. It is calculated using historical market moves for the contract and uses a one year look-back. The aggregate VaR for the fund represents the VaR of the Funds open positions across all contracts, and is less than the sum of VaRs for each
individual contract due to the diversification benefit across the contracts.
NON-TRADING RISK
The Fund has non-trading market risk as a result of investing in short-term United States Treasury Obligations. The market risk represented by these
investments is expected to be immaterial.
QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES REGARDING PRIMARY TRADING RISK EXPOSURES
The following qualitative disclosures regarding the Funds market risk exposures except for those disclosures that are statements of
historical fact constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. The Funds primary market risk exposures are subject to numerous
uncertainties, contingencies and risks. Government interventions, defaults and expropriations, illiquid markets, the emergence of dominant fundamental factors, political upheavals, changes in historical price relationships, an influx of new market
participants, increased regulation and many other factors could result in material losses as well as in material changes to the risk exposures of the Fund. There can be no assurance that the Funds current market exposure will not change
materially. Investors may lose all or substantially all of their investment in the Fund.
The following were the primary trading risk
exposures of the Fund as of December 31, 2007 by Index Commodities:
Gold
The price of gold is volatile and is affected by numerous factors. Gold prices float freely in accordance with supply and demand. The price movement of
gold may be influenced by a variety of factors, including announcements from central banks regarding reserve gold holdings, agreements among central banks, purchases and sales of gold by central banks other governmental agencies that hold large
supplies of gold, political uncertainties, economic concerns such as an increase or decrease in confidence in the global monetary system, the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, interest rates and numerous other factors. Gold prices may also be
affected by industry factors such as industrial and jewelry demand.
Silver
The price of silver is volatile and is affected by numerous factors. The largest industrial users of silver (e.g., photographic, jewelry, and electronic
industries) may influence its price. A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect industries which are dependent upon the use of silver. In turn, such a negative economic impact may decrease demand for silver, and,
consequently, its price. Worldwide speculation and hedging activity by silver producers may also impact its price.
QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES
REGARDING NON-TRADING RISK EXPOSURE
General
The Fund is unaware of any (i) anticipated known demands, commitments or capital expenditures; (ii) material trends, favorable or unfavorable, in its capital resources; or (iii) trends or uncertainties that will have a
material effect on operations.
QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES REGARDING MEANS OF MANAGING RISK EXPOSURE
Under ordinary circumstances, the Managing Owners discretionary power is limited to determining whether the Fund will make a distribution. Under
emergency or extraordinary circumstances, the Managing Owners discretionary powers increase, but remain circumscribed. These special circumstances, for example, include the unavailability of the Index or certain natural or man-made disasters.
The Managing Owner does not apply risk management techniques. The Fund initiates positions only on the long side of the market and does not employ stop-loss techniques.
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