UPDATE: Banks Rally On New Rules, Though Payouts Seen At Risk
14 September 2010 - 2:06AM
Dow Jones News
European bank shares rose Monday after regulators laid out
tougher bank-capital requirements that analysts said helped end
uncertainty but which are ultimately seen meaning higher costs for
banking customers and lower returns for shareholders.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on Sunday said banks
from 2013 must hold a minimum common equity of at least 7% of their
risk-weighted assets and lift their total capital on hand to 10.5%.
The rules, which are designed to prevent a repeat of the near
collapse of the financial system in late 2008, were broadly in line
with expectations and will only be implemented over several
years.
Many European banks have been hoarding cash in anticipation of
the higher capital requirements, raising the ire of politicians who
want them to lend more to businesses and help jumpstart sluggish
economic growth. The rules were watered down from an initial draft
in December, representing a victory for banks and countries that
had argued the global economic recovery could be put at risk by
stricter action.
Banking industry organizations in countries including the U.K.,
Spain and France were quick to say their banks are in good enough
shape to comply with the rules, which came after the vast majority
of the European Union's major banks passed a series of stress tests
in July. Analysts at investment banks and brokers said U.K. and
Swiss banks are particularly well positioned, since their equity
ratios are already among the highest in Europe.
"We do not think there is a quoted bank in Europe that would be
unable to meet these targets," UBS bank analysts said, calling the
implementation timeline that runs from 2013 to 2019 "surprisingly
accommodative."
The U.K.'s Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) and Royal Bank of
Scotland Group PLC (RBS) were among the lead gainers, with both
banks' shares up 2.7% and 2%, respectively, at 1515 GMT.
Switzerland's UBS AG (UBS) rose 2.2% and Credit Suisse Group (CS)
gained 2.3%, while the Euro Stoxx banks index was up 2.2%.
Credit Suisse analysts said the clarity around the rules means
investors can now focus on which banks might have extra capital to
return to shareholders, and identified BNP Paribas SA (BNP.FR),
Lloyds Banking Group and Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB-B.SK) as
"fundamentally attractive stocks with clear surpluses as soon as
2012."
BNP Paribas shares rose 2.6% and Svenska Handelsbanken was up
2.7%.
U.K. banking analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the
rules marked a "very large milestone for the sector," supporting
its positive stance on U.K. banks. In addition to Lloyds, it said
RBS should also have significant surplus capital by 2012 that could
benefit shareholders.
However, analysts agreed that the broader implications of the
rules are an overall reduction in dividend payouts, since banks
typically will have to hold onto more of their retained earnings to
meet the requirements.
For example, banks won't necessarily be obliged to hold a new
"conservation buffer" of up to 2.5%, but they will face increasing
constraints on their ability to distribute capital in the form of
dividends or bonuses if they go below that level, analysts at
CreditSights said.
Banking customers could also be losers from the new rules,
Angela Knight, chief executive officer of the British Bankers'
Association warned, saying the "cheap money era is over."
"All the changes are good from a stability perspective but add
billions to the fixed operating cost of a bank. The consequence is
that inevitably the cost of credit--the price the borrower pays for
money--will rise," she said.
The French banking federation raised similar concerns about the
rules' effect on the availability of credit, and said an
improvement in the quality of supervision, together with other
preventative measures and crisis management would be more
efficient.
There were also several banks singled out by analysts as likely
requiring more capital, including Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo
(BES.LB) and Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP.LB), and Italy's Banca
Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI).
Those banks' share prices were also markedly higher Monday,
though, as investors counted on the banks having plenty of time to
firm up their finances.
Meanwhile, Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank AG (DB), on
Sunday said it is raising EUR9.8 billion in capital to buy a
majority stake in Deutsche Postbank AG (DPB.XE), as well as to
boost its capital to comply with the rules.
-By Margot Patrick, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9451;
margot.patrick@dowjones.com
(Katharina Bart in Zurich, Digby Larner in Paris and Jonathan
House in Madrid contributed to this article.)