Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) Options

This will be pinned under 60 dollars to kill the cheap weekly calls and close over 60 after hours.

My opinions are based on my past experiences, though I appreciated that Grok analysis that Webslinger post, but I don't base my trading and investment skill on an AI, AI can be helpful at times, but it is not 100% accurate in predicting the outcome. We investors have to use common sense and common sense can also be wrong at times. Only the insiders know the faith of this company and institutions.

And with that, it's all but certain the financials get filed by the 25th. Because if they were unable to meet the 25th deadline (and they would know by now), they would be appealing for another extension as they are allowed to do. And the appeal for the extension would have been announced.

"The Supplemental Indentures, among other things, (i) amend and restate the Existing Indenture in the form attached as Exhibit A to the Second Supplemental Indenture, which is attached as Exhibit 4.4 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (as so amended, the “Amended Convertible Notes Indenture”), (ii) provide for the amendment and restatement of the Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 initially issued pursuant to the Existing Indenture (the “Amended 2029 Notes”) by issuing new certificates representing the Amended 2029 Notes in the form of Amended 2029 Notes (the “Form of 2029 Convertible Notes”), a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 4.6 to this Current Report on 8-K and (iii) include a form of waiver, release and covenant not to sue executed by holders of approximately $1.64 billion aggregate principal amount (or approximately 95%) of outstanding 2029 Notes as of February 20, 2025 (collectively, the “Amendments”). The Amended Convertible Notes Indenture provides that, among other things, the Amended 2029 Notes will (1) bear interest from the effective date of the Amendments at an annual rate of 3.50%, payable semi-annually on each March 1 and September 1, beginning on September 1, 2025, and (2) have an initial conversion rate of 11.9842 shares of the Company's common stock per $1,000 principal amount of the Amended Convertible Notes, which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $83.44 per share of the Company’s common stock, representing an initial conversion premium of approximately 105% premium over the Reference Price. The conversion rate and conversion price will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events as set forth in the Amended Convertible Notes Indenture."

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001375365/000137536525000003/smci-20250220.htm

Convertible closed. 8K submitted.

We will see if Grok is right or wrong. If Grok is right, then Grok is the best thing since slice bread.

Yup.

My comment is based on the unknown reason why E & Y backed out of their position with SMCI.

If the new accountant agreed to come on board, SMCI must have agreed to modify the filing to their satisfaction. Was it something SMCI didn’t want investors to see? Who knows?

My own feelings are that SMCI will be fine and the share price will go up from here, once the filings come out.

I’ve been wrong before though - I hope for the best.

SMCI is in Danger Zone, even Maverick crashed...

https://www.trefis.com/stock/smci/articles/562555/how-super-micro-computer-stock-can-rise-to-over-140/2025-02-19#:~:text=Combine%20this%20better%2Dthan%2Danticipated,as%20the%20company%20sees%20better

They won’t need another extension.

They’ll file all the filings agreed to be filed after the 180 day extension.

Whether investors will like the numbers remains to be seen.

They already got the one time pass, they have no chance to request for another one, it doesn't work that way. They have to file by or on the 25th, no way around it.

Extension for delayed filings. Some people really have no clue.

$70 down to $57 bullish call buying on

Thursday for Friday expiration...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/options?expiration=2025-02-21-m&moneyness=20

Volume minus open interest gives you

the net contract volume daily...

Some very big volume numbers,,,

Possibly big group activity that has interest

in seeing price above $70 on Friday...

Might get an indication of it pretty early

into trading day on Friday...

Wednesday negative nelly post from me was

about the control trading groups getting much

better option prices prior to more up days...

Timing only gave them one chance to reload

in case a filing hits by Monday A.M....

They did bring down option prices much more

than I thought they could on Thursday with

share price still up so high...

Swing traders are generally the ones making

money buying option contracts, calls or puts...


extension for what?, I'm a little behind...


so we watch...LJ

<< I think the language was they “expect” to file by the 25th. >>

Here is the exact quote:

"Based on information currently available, the Company believes it will make such filings by February 25, 2025."

https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2025/Supermicro-Announces-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2025-Preliminary-Financial-Information/default.aspx

That sounds like something that a stinky pink penny stock company would say.

That can be interpreted two different ways. All depends on what was he thinking when he said that "We Believe"

1.
accept (something) as true; feel sure of the truth of.

2.
hold (something) as an opinion; think or suppose.
"I believe we've already met"

Correction…they said this…
“Supermicro continues to work diligently toward the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2024. Based on information currently available, the Company believes it will make such filings by February 25, 2025. Additionally, the Company today filed a Form 12b-25 for its second fiscal quarter and expects to file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for period ended December 31, 2024, also by February 25, 2025.

LJ, it's funny how some traders on ST are saying they will probably ask for another extension, I can't believe how ill-informed some traders are, they already got the extension, by or on the 25th is do or die.

Still think they need audited financials filed

in order to secure new debt contract...

They flop around dragging too much and

don't allow for hiccups...

or evercore needs price to drop in half to

raise money from short positions to come

up with the funding money...

You see how doubt creeps in with delays?...

Today didn't look like I will ever get even

again on this big mistake so far...


so we watch...LJ

I think the language was they “expect” to file by the 25th. Or on time or however it was phrased but it was expected to be done. I just think logically, with the $700 million private placement settled today, they would have to have assured the investors of the filing,
Maybe I’m not seeing something,

Yes, if they have coming up earnings report, most of the time, they let the public know the earnings report is coming up, in this case this something different than if they were in good standing with Nasdaq. Yes, we are not out of the woods yet, the moment of truth is next week, either they play with the rules or they don't and are delisted on the 26th. I just don't like people that flip flop, you are nervous about the deadline? Then just stay away, no need to be bullish one day, on the fence one day and bearish the next day when the wind doesn't blow your way.

Almost every large cap public company schedules a date when they will be releasing financials. Why didn't $SMCI state that they will definitively be filing on a certain date?

When $SMCI indicates that they might not have all of the information, and then says that they "believe" that they can file on time, it doesn't exude confidence and leaves the door open that there are still issues and they might not be able to file on time.

We will see what happens in 3 more business days....

Do what is best for you, guess he has not idea who controls this yet. The moment of truth is next week. I had to chuckle at hid last week when he replied that the CEO said he "Believes" they will file on time. What if he said we will "Definitely" file on time? The stock would be sitting at 100 before the report.

Let’s ask the private placement investors if there is any doubt.

Good article. I like this…
“…potentially reaching $140 per share in the medium term.”

SMCI $70 call volume soared on Thursday...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI250221C00070000/

may still be slim glimmer of hope for

a big run on Friday to close week...


so we watch...LJ

3 more days for $SMCI to file.

If they don't file, then the share price could drop down to the teens.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/02/20/smci-stock-to-2x/

Probably another steep dive and then run it up to green at the close.

SMCI could have afternoon come back move.,,..

EXcess leverage built up by the pltr

holders may have been in some trading

areas like, SMCI, for example...

it appears that it flew off quick in the

afternoon drop...

big fundies increase position size from sellers...

that's my wag, not betting grade though...

so we watch...LJ

You are correct, it may have posted late

on that Friday,,,

if filings come in after 5:30 ET cutoff on

Friday, they give them Monday date...

that 7:32 ET time is like 4:30 on west

coast and near wine drinking time...

sooner the better, either way...

so we watch...LJ

Looks like they will dump couple of times before any filing

Gird thy loins. They did it twice yesterday. Hopefully they’re done, whoever they are.
Could be $70 soon.

I think the institutions has to take out the money from PLTR and put it on SMCI,as it should be the real one that should sit on nasdaq 100 index.

Wow that did not take long. As the markets overall proceed to take a dump, SMCI goes positive. Thought this might not happen until the end of the day.

Those latter two, specially BBA*I wouldn't throw a dime at them, PLT*R is worth no more than 18-22 dollars. As for SMCI, all they are doing is killing the cheap weekly calls for this week. Market makers at their finest moment. The moment of truth comes next week.

We are similar in standings, even if we come at things differently.
I don't enjoy paying taxes, but it reminds me I've had a good year.
With as many holdings as I own, there are typically tax losses to unload annually.
I also have zero debt. My biggest fear is devaluing the dollar.

Comparatively SMCI is performing better compared to the other AI stocks downtrend today mainly PLTR and BBAI.

Very rare after I sell the stock keeps going up, there is only two reasons why I don't look back, one is in case it continues to go up, then I will get mentally demented if its substantially higher than where I sold it, the other main reason is, once I get out and get back in, I usually give back the gains and plus more, at least in the early days, I learned my lesson. Rule number one, never get back in once in profits, I am not in the business to make money for Uncle Sam and I am not in the business to make ends meet, I have no debt, zero, so I am good for long haul gains.

Typically a very good idea to never look back. It can be maddening.
On a stock I like, I'll buy half as many shares IF I get back in as what I had.....often times getting back in was a mistake.
SMCI is right now TOTALLY dependent on their filing properly. The only thing I trust is the charts giving me advance notice if they will or not. Insiders talk.
I wish I had bought a ton more the first time....obviously.
BTW, the high volume yesterday was a pretty danged good signal.

I take profits always, but when I do, I rarely come back to them. 99% of the time, when I sell I am done, no matter what it does. There is always going to be opportunities out there. Sometimes I invest 6 digits, sometimes I invest 7 digits and sometimes I invest 4 digits, all depending on how much profits I can secure in what time frame.

Considering the market started off on a downer today, seems to be doing quite well, could see it finishing today and the week on the upside.

Well I regretting not waiting for my target price, but as I've said many times. I would rather lose opportunity than dollars.
Look, I'm not telling you how to trade or not telling you personally anything. I'm speaking to an internet board as a whole, I just linked to your post "suggesting" that through experience not to be greedy and take profits along the way. This may not be your way. I don't know how large of an investment you make in each stock. People often ask me how to make a living off of investing, and this is my advice. The choice to ignore or accept is in each person.

Around 2 PM it should come back up and close flat maybe. Keynote presentation

Technical analysis is not luck.

Well said.

People should listen to geniuses more often. Maybe it’s just your luck that big mouths spout off about budget cuts and scare the markets into a big dumping.
Lucky for those that sold yesterday at the high (lol) and bought back today at the low. Assuming we’ve seen it.
Others just hold on.

But, but you said you regret selling at 60 dollars for some shares and yet it ran to 66 plus dollars. Listen bud, I don't listen to outside bearish, on the fence, or bullish comments, as I have said many times on this thread, I wait for a specific price target with great stocks. Yeah, if I was glued to the computer and if I was able to sell at the top and buy at the dip today, I would have gained 400 more shares, but that is the thing, I am not glued to the screen to sell at the top and buy at the bottom and these things can't be timed, as far as I am concerned this dips and rips at times, yes you can channel trade this, but I am in this for the long haul. I might as well ignore all noises, including yours. Been doing this longer than you, do I know better than you, of course not, no one is perfect in trading, we all try to do our best, one's strategy is better than the next only for their own account.