DALLAS, July 5, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Texas Economic Activity Index grew 0.1 percent in April to 137.5.
April's index reading is 42 points, or 44 percent, above the index
cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 134.5 points for all of
2018, 5.6 points above the average for 2017. March's index reading
was revised to 137.3.
The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index improved for the
fourth consecutive month in April. It has increased for 11 out of
the last 13 months. The April gain of 0.1 percent is consistent
with ongoing economic expansion at the start of the second quarter.
For the year ending in April, the Texas Index is up by 3.2 percent,
which can be considered a reasonable first guess for state real GDP
growth over the 12 month period. For April, results were mixed.
Five out of nine components were positive, while four were
negative. The positive components were nonfarm employment,
unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity
demand, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. The negative
components were housing starts, house prices, drilling rig count,
and total state trade. Housing markets appear to be cooling
nationwide and Texas will feel
some drag. But steady job growth, consistent positive in-migration
to the state and lower mortgage rates will help to support local
housing markets. Oil prices have eased heading into early summer
and that will be a dampening force on drilling activity. However,
U.S. crude oil and refined product exports are increasing and that
is good news for Texas. Also the
consolidation we are seeing in the state's energy sector will help
to stabilize the economic impact of fluctuating oil prices.
Infrastructure development in West
Texas will remain on track even with slightly lower oil
prices.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank