Junior Mining Stocks are Cheap - Investment Ideas
14 July 2011 - 10:00AM
Zacks
In case anyone hasn't noticed, gold and silver are once again on a
tear. The long-term bullish trend in gold that is now going on its
tenth year has been driven by the ongoing devaluation of the Dollar
due to growing fiscal imbalances and the Fed's easy money policies
of the last few years.
But here's the thing; neither of these trends is
showing any sign of slowing. In fact, they are actually
accelerating. We just heard from Ben Bernanke and the Fed
yesterday, saying that the Central Bank is once again prepared to
intervene and support the market on any additional signs of
weakness in the economy. And what did gold and silver do on the
news? Gold hits an all-time high and silver jumps 5% in one day.
Further stimulation means spending money that the Federal
government doesn't have, which of course leads to further currency
devaluation.
And even more immediately, we have a huge battle
raging in Congress where Republicans and Democrats are duking it
out over raising the debt ceiling. This has two very important
implications. The first is the credit worthiness of the US, whose
pristine AAA rating is now clearly in jeopardy after ratings agency
Moody's placed the country's debt on negative watch. The second
implication of the political standoff is tidal wave of uncertainty
it's causing in the market, a factor that has investors seeking out
"flight to safety" assets like gold and silver.
Gold is a Dollar Trade
The bottom line on gold is that it's a Dollar
trade. And when you look at the massive deficit and total debt load
of the Federal government, it's pretty obvious that there is only
one way out. And that path is to "monetize" the debt, which is
basically a covert way for economists and politicians to say print
more money.
But playing gold can be confusing, you have many
options. If you want to track underlying gold prices you can buy a
gold ETF that will give you straight 1-to-1 exposure to the price
of gold. But keep in mind, even if gold goes parabolic and hits
$3,000, best case scenario has you doubling your money. You can
juice your ETF trade a little bit by going with a double gold ETF,
which will give you 2X the daily movement of gold. Beyond the
ETF's, you can go with miners, buying stock in companies that own
and extract gold/silver from beneath the ground in exotic locations
all over the world. While this is a more aggressive play on gold,
there is one more strategy that offers both unparalleled risk and
upside.
Junior Miners to Play Precious Metals
Enter the junior miners, a very high-beta play with
the ability to produce big gains in a bull market. Although the
junior miners will be volatile, there is no other instrument that
gives you more upside to bullish prices in gold and silver.
So if you're looking for a few satellite holdings
for your portfolio to provide more exposure to gold and silver, be
sure to check out the junior miners. Here are a few top picks in
the category.
Top 4 Junior Miners
Hecla Mining Co (HL) is a silver and gold
miner with a market cap of $2.28 billion. In spite of gold and
silver's meteoric rise over the last six months, HL has actually
pulled back sharply from its 52-week high. That means estimates
have been on the rise, creating some very serious relative value.
HL is a Zacks #2 Rank stock.
Coeu d'Alene Corp (CDE) is a silver and gold
miner with a market cap of $2.35 billion. CDE has also been under
pressure over the last six months in spite of the bullish gold and
silver market. We have seen some very strong movement in estimates,
with the next-year estimate up 47 cents in the last three months to
$3.29. With a forward P/E of 10X and bullish growth projection.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) is a Zacks #1
Rank stock, and you guessed it, shares are down over the last six
months while estimates have been moving higher. That means this
gold and silver miner with a market cap of $3.55 billion has
serious value.
And finally, we have Aurico Gold (AUQ), the
only name of the lot that has seen gains over the last six months,
currently trading at a multi-year high. The company recently
changed its name from Gammon Gold, but either way, this is a very
unique combination of growth and value to spice up your precious
metals portfolio.
Junior Miners are Cheap
So as you can see, there is some serious value in
the junior miners right now, where an anomalously weak correlation
to underlying gold and silver prices has created a long-term buying
opportunity.
**author disclosure: I own shares of CDE and
AUQ**
Michael Vodicka is the Momentum Stock Strategist
for Zacks.com. He is also the Editor in charge of the Zacks
Momentum Trader Service.
COEUR DALENE MI (CDE): Free Stock Analysis Report
HECLA MINING (HL): Free Stock Analysis Report
PAN AMER SILVER (PAAS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Zacks Investment Research
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