WASHINGTON, Oct. 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae
(FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI)
increased 3.5 points in September to 81.0, rising for the second
consecutive month and continuing the rebound from late spring.
Three of the six HPSI components increased month over month, with
consumers reporting a substantially more optimistic view of
home-selling conditions, expected home price growth, and the labor
market, but a more pessimistic view of homebuying conditions and
mortgage rate expectations. Year over year, the HPSI is down 10.5
points.
"The HPSI has recovered more than half of the early
pandemic-period decline, mirroring the strong home purchase
activity of the past few months," said Doug
Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.
"Consumers' home price expectations were up strongly this month,
with high home prices playing an increasingly – though
unsurprisingly – important role in driving both the increase in
'good time to sell' sentiment and the decline in 'good time to buy'
sentiment. Going forward, we believe the wild card to be whether
enough sellers enter the market to continue to meet the strong
homebuying demand. The home purchase market requires the proper mix
of home price growth and continued economic recovery to achieve
sustainable levels of housing activity."
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in
September by 3.5 points to 81.0. The HPSI is down 10.5 points
compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report
for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who
say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 59% to 54%,
while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from
35% to 38%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say it is a
good time to buy decreased 8 percentage points.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who
say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 48% to 56%,
while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell decreased from
44% to 38%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a
good time to sell increased 14 percentage points.
- Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents
who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased this
month from 33% to 41%, while the percentage who said home prices
will go down decreased from 26% to 17%. The share who think home
prices will stay the same was unchanged at 34%. As a result, the
net share of Americans who say home prices will go up increased 17
percentage points.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of
respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12
months decreased this month from 17% to 11%, while the percentage
who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 33% to 38%. The
share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from
45% to 44%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say
mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 11
percentage points.
- Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they
are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months
increased from 78% to 83%, while the percentage who say they are
concerned decreased from 22% to 16%. As a result, the net share of
Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job
increased 11 percentage points.
- Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say
their household income is significantly higher than it was 12
months ago decreased from 25% to 24%, while the percentage who say
their household income is significantly lower increased from 16% to
17%. The percentage who say their household income is about the
same remained unchanged at 59%. As a result, the net share of those
who say their household income is significantly higher than it was
12 months ago decreased 2 percentage
points.
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information
about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National
Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects
consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of
housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to
inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is
constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit
consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address
topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The
questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad
time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home
prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are
about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than
they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind,
Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately
1,000 respondents via live telephone interview to assess their
attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price
changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances,
and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked
more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of
which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with
the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). As cell phones have become common and
many households no longer have landline phones, the NHS contacts 70
percent of respondents via their cell phones (as of January 2018). For more information, please see
the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares
monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners
and market participants target our collective efforts to support
the housing market. The September
2020 National Housing Survey was conducted between
September 1, 2020 and September 22, 2020. Most of the data collection
occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were
conducted by PSB, in coordination with Fannie Mae.
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the September
2020 Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing
Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper,
technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of
respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit
the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are
in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment
of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS
results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research
from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please
click here.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae helps make the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and
affordable rental housing possible for millions of Americans. We
partner with lenders to create housing opportunities for families
across the country. We are driving positive changes in housing
finance to make the home buying process easier, while reducing
costs and risk. To learn more, visit:
fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram |
YouTube | Blog
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https://www.fanniemae.com/news
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of
Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included
in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie
Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number
of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this
information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors.
Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates,
forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it
does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials
is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose.
Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these
views could produce materially different results. The analyses,
opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the
ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date
indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae
or its management.
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SOURCE Fannie Mae