By Christopher Whittall
U.S. investors, prepare for a new high-stakes geography
test.
Europe's recent decision to import the U.S. strategy for
economic stimulus could give share prices on the Continent the same
kind of boost that has made many Americans wealthier in recent
years. European stocks already are outracing U.S. counterparts so
far this year, with Germany's benchmark index up 9.5% and France's
up 8.4%, through Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down 2.3%.
Yet stocks in many countries across the Atlantic still look
alluringly inexpensive. European stocks are selling at the steepest
discount ever to U.S. equities based on one popular valuation
measure, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley of data going
back to late 1979.
How much foreign stock you should own can depend on many
factors, including your personal comfort level. Europe is a major
part of non-U.S. markets, and experts say typical U.S. investors
should consider having at least 20% to 30% of their stock
portfolios in foreign firms.
But the opportunity comes with risks for anyone investing with
U.S. dollars, because some of the same policies that could boost
European asset values could weaken the common European currency,
the euro, relative to the greenback. That would eat into any gains
when converted into dollars.
"What you gain on the stock price you may lose on the currency,"
says Graham Secker, head of European equity strategy at Morgan
Stanley.
The European Central Bank announced in mid-January that it plans
to spend more than a trillion euros buying bonds in an effort to
fend off the risk of deflation and give the Continent's anemic
economies a shot in the arm. European stocks rallied in recent
weeks in anticipation of the move.
Loading up on European stocks now is a bet that the ECB's move
will help things go right on a continent where so much has gone
wrong for investors in recent years. Other problems include
potential clashes between the new Greek government and the
country's beleaguered creditors, and ongoing conflict on the
eurozone's doorstep in Ukraine.
European economies also face serious structural problems that
rising share prices wouldn't solve--and could, in fact,
obscure--including government commitments to spending on social
programs that could be difficult to sustain.
Investors tempted by the prospect of another rally fueled by
loose monetary policy should consider taking a few basic steps to
protect against possible pitfalls.
Here is how to map out your European portfolio:
The Case for Europe
One recent sign of hope for European investors was the calm
response to the recent triumph of the left-wing Syriza party in
Greece, which wants to ease the terms of the European bailout.
Greece's Athex Composite Share Price Index plummeted 15% in the
first three trading days following the vote. But investors
elsewhere shrugged, bidding the Stoxx Europe 600--akin to the
S&P 500--to a fresh seven-year high in the days that
followed.
There are other reasons for optimism.
The euro already has tumbled 19% against the dollar since March,
and many analysts believe it has further to fall, particularly when
the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which could happen later
this year. A weaker currency should make European exports more
competitive abroad and boost revenues in euro terms.
European firms also are able to borrow on favorable terms due to
low interest rates, and plunging oil prices have reduced energy
costs in countries that often rely on imported fossil fuels.
"Recently, we seem to be running out of reasons to dislike
Europe, and for us that signals that it's time to buy," says John
Manley, the New York-based chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo
Asset Management, a unit of Wells Fargo that oversees about $490
billion.
European stocks also are less richly valued than U.S. equities,
which have appreciated more sharply in the aftermath of the
financial crisis. European stocks currently trade at nearly a 40%
discount to U.S. equities, according to Morgan Stanley, based on
the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio--a valuation measure
popularized by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller that
uses average inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years.
The long-term average discount is 10%.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that European corporate earnings will
outpace the U.S. for the first time since 2008, with 10% growth in
2015 compared with 6% to 8% in the U.S.
For many U.S. investors, the simplest and most convenient way to
own European stocks is to buy a mutual fund or an exchange-traded
fund offered by a major investment firm that focuses on Europe or
includes a chunk of European stocks among its holdings.
The Currency Effect
For an investor in Berlin, Paris or Rome, the case for European
stocks in 2015 may look particularly strong.
For an investor in Chicago, Los Angeles or New York, the
analysis is more complicated because of the potential impact of
currency fluctuations.
Jens Nordvig, a currency strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura
Holdings, expects that one euro will cost $1.05 by year-end, down
from $1.13 on Thursday. Other analysts think the euro could become
even cheaper compared with the dollar.
While that could boost the prospects for European companies that
can sell goods to Americans at lower prices, it would hurt U.S.
shareholders of those firms that tally gains in dollar terms.
The impact could be significant, as a comparison between two
similar exchange-traded funds shows. The iShares MSCI EMU
ETF--which holds an array of European companies--lost 4.6% over the
past 12 months, through Thursday, including dividends, according to
Chicago-based investment researcher Morningstar. The fund charges
annual fees of 0.49%, or $49 on a $10,000 investment. It doesn't
hedge against changes in the exchange rate between the euro and the
dollar.
By contrast, the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund, an ETF
which hedges the impact of currency moves and which has many of the
same top 10 holdings as the iShares fund, is up 19% over the same
period. The fund charges annual fees of 0.58%.
There are other differences between the iShares and the
WisdomTree funds, but the divergence in their fortunes broadly
illustrates how hedging and not hedging the effect of currency
movements can have an impact on returns.
Diversify or Wager?
Investors should first figure out what they are looking for when
they invest abroad. If diversifying your portfolio is the goal,
then you may choose to view currency swings as a valuable way to
hedge against uncertainty.
At the same time, the prospect of a rise in the dollar and a
decline in the euro is real given the different policy signals
officials in the U.S. and Europe are sending to the markets.
So if you want to bet on near-term gains in European stocks,
consider a fund that tries to limit the impact of the euro, such as
the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund, which has $8.9 billion in
assets.
Consider focusing on European companies that are in a good
position to benefit from a weaker euro as well. In general, larger
European companies with international exposure should outperform
smaller companies that tend to be more focused on domestic markets,
according to Société Générale, the Paris-based investment bank.
The WisdomTree ETF, for example, focuses on European companies
worth more than $1 billion that generate at least half of their
revenue outside of Europe.
Another option is the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hedged
Equity ETF, says Gregg Wolper, a senior analyst at Morningstar. The
fund aims to hedge against fluctuations in the euro against the
dollar and holds shares in European companies with an average
market capitalization of $18.6 billion. The fund charges annual
fees of 0.45% and has $1.1 billion in assets.
Don't assume that the stocks in all European countries will
perform the same way, especially those that don't use the euro. The
FTSE 100 index in the U.K. is up 4% over the past year, through
Thursday, for example, while Germany's DAX index is up 15% over the
same period.
Similarly, companies in the eurozone won't benefit equally from
the ECB's efforts. Companies in the eurozone overall should see a
7% bump in earnings if the euro falls 10%, Société Générale said in
a note on Jan. 20 (as of Thursday, the euro had fallen 3% since the
note was published). But French companies, which tend to be more
export-oriented, should see a 9% increase, compared with a 4%
increase in Italy, according to the bank.
Investors can get broad exposure to European stocks through
funds such as the Vanguard FTSE Europe, which had nearly a third of
its holdings in the U.K. at year-end, while stocks in Switzerland,
France and Germany each comprised about 14% of the portfolio. The
fund doesn't hedge against changes in the euro/dollar exchange
rate.
There also are a number of funds that focus on single countries,
some of which hedge and some of which don't. For example, investors
who want to invest in German stocks in a fund that hedges against
the euro/dollar exchange rate can buy the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI
Germany Hedged Equity ETF, which charges fees of 0.45% and has
assets of $53 million. The fund tracks 54 German companies.
Analysts at major investment banks believe that some companies
and sectors are in a particularly strong position. For example,
Société Générale strategists say aircraft maker Airbus Group and
luxury-goods retailer LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton will each
see earnings per share rise 29% if the euro falls 10%.
Goldman Sachs Group, meanwhile, favors luxury retailers that
cater to U.S. consumers, such as Burberry Group, Christian Dior and
Salvatore Ferragamo, as well as banks that should benefit from a
recovery in the eurozone, such as Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco Bilbao
Vizcaya Argentaria, which are based in Italy and Spain,
respectively.
Continental Drift
Investors who are placing such bets should keep in mind the
possibility that Europe's economy could keep drifting. Economists
have predicted a European revival in recent years, only to be
disappointed by persistently anemic growth.
Peter Westaway, chief European economist at Vanguard Asset
Management, a unit of Vanguard Group, says that major eurozone
countries such as France and Italy need to enact significant
structural changes to remove obstacles to growth. Those efforts
will "determine the success of Europe going forward," he says.
Similarly, sectors that may look well-positioned could end up
being vulnerable to disappointment, as could investors who wager on
them. Banks, which make up 22% of European stock indexes based on
market capitalization, could benefit from new economic stimulus but
also could suffer from low bond yields, which tend to limit their
profitability, says Andrew Sheets, head of cross-asset strategy at
Morgan Stanley.
"If banks continue to disappoint, that's a pretty large sector
of equity markets," he says.
Investors should view the current situation in Europe as an
opportunity to determine a comfortable level of international
exposure. Stocks in Europe comprise about a quarter of the value of
stock markets around the world, Mr. Westaway says.
For most investors, that should be seen as an upper limit for
how much of your stock portfolio to bet on a renaissance in
European stocks. But don't be surprised if the investing world
turns out to be more difficult to navigate than it appears to be on
a map.
Josie Cox contributed to this article.
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