BOSTON, July 25,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Roboshuttles are small, fully
electric, and operate at Level 4 autonomy, making them an ideal
last-mile solution. They were once highly anticipated in the
autonomous driving industry as a promising mobility solution, and
at one point, over 25 companies were competing in this space.
However, IDTechEx has observed a yearly decline in the number of
active companies from 2020 to 2024, and the industry has not
advanced to the large-scale commercial testing phases as hoped.
This is one of the key findings of the new IDTechEx report,
"Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends,
Forecasts".
The number of players continues to decline
The number of companies involved in the roboshuttle market has
decreased from over 25 to just 12 within three years - a sharp
decline of more than 50% since 2020. Data available before 2023
shows that most companies in this sector were either conducting
small-scale trials or were still at the conceptual stage, with
nobody close to full commercial deployment. Even those who garnered
substantial interest often struggled to progress from small to
larger trials. In 2023, these larger trials, which IDTechEx
anticipates would be the final step before commercialization,
proved to be a significant hurdle. The primary reasons for the
market contraction include inadequate funding, which prevented many
companies from advancing beyond small-scale tests, and a lack of
public interest, which is crucial for supporting a viable business
case for this transportation mode. Consequently, many companies
have exited the market, unable to overcome these challenges and
secure the necessary resources for larger trials.
Several notable examples illustrate the challenges faced in the
roboshuttle market. Navya, once a leader in the industry, faced
financial and multifaceted issues, leading to its joint acquisition
by Gaussin and Macnica and the formation of GAMA. Macnica is
expected to fully acquire GAMA, with plans to establish their
business model in Japanese mobility markets. ZF has delegated the
manufacturing, sales, and operations of its roboshuttles to
partners Oceaneering and Beep, ceasing internal development and
focusing on supplying the necessary software and hardware for
autonomous driving. Cruise suspended its commercial service
following a robotaxi incident in October
2023 that resulted in serious injuries and led to the
revocation of its autonomous vehicle testing license, halting its
roboshuttle project. May Mobility has shifted its business model
from using Polaris GEM shuttles to leveraging Toyota Sienna for its
robotaxi services. Lastly, Coast and IAV's HEAT project has not
announced any shuttle-related business initiatives over the past
two years, instead redirecting their focus towards autonomous
tractors for port logistics. The primary challenge facing the
roboshuttle industry lies in the difficulty of finding practical
commercial applications. This leads to a number of issues including
financial difficulties, market consolidation, business model
adjustments, safety and regulatory concerns, changes in market
positioning, and project redirection.
Roboshuttles still need to prove commercial viability
Roboshuttles have always been envisioned as a futuristic
concept, aiming to be small, shared vehicles that operate more
flexibly than buses and more economically than taxis. This dual
expectation has led to an unclear definition of their use cases,
facing challenges similar to those of operating robotaxis and
autonomous buses. These challenges include navigating complex urban
environments and optimizing routes to increase usage rates. The
hope is that overcoming these challenges will provide a highly
used, high-revenue service, with a lower total cost of ownership
(TCO) than a bus.
Initially, the industry pictured roboshuttles providing a
variety of dynamic routes within cities. However, it has become
difficult to find enough scenarios that require these
characteristics. Most current test cases are in closed or
semi-closed environments, such as the Park Shuttle service provided
by QCraft in Beijing, where the
roboshuttles can provide public transportation. Public
transportation and mobility as a service (MaaS) were considered key
use cases for roboshuttles in the early days. However, robotaxis
are now entering high levels of technical maturity and commercial
deployment, which could potentially fulfill this market need.
Given all the challenges faced by roboshuttles, such as changing
use case scenarios, and competition from robotaxis, IDTechEx
believes that the commercialization of roboshuttles is possible,
but still an uphill battle. To get from where the industry is today
to full commercial deployments will require efforts in
infrastructure development, transportation system integration, and
regulatory support. They need to be incorporated into urban transit
systems to fulfill their role as dynamic dispatchers.
Against the odds: Some roboshuttle unicorns are still
securing open road-testing approvals worldwide
Despite the overall downturn and all the challenges faced, some
players achieved significant milestones between 2022 and 2024. In
August 2023, WeRide received the M1
and T1 licenses from Singapore's
Land Transport Authority (LTA), allowing their Robobus to undergo
large-scale public road tests. By July
2024, WeRide launched Robobus shuttle services in Sentosa,
marking Singapore's first publicly
accessible L4 autonomous Robobus route, and the industry's first
truly commercialized Roboshuttle operation. Additionally, in
May 2024, WeRide successfully
operated a shuttle service during the French Open, and China's QCraft is conducting open tests in 10
cities across mainland China. Pix
Moving is deploying 100 roboshuttles for testing in 16 cities
worldwide, leveraging its production line to support these trials.
These achievements point in the direction of early
commercialization of roboshuttles, namely providing services in
limited areas with high-quality infrastructure, highly controlled
access, and short-distance journeys.
The commercial breakthroughs of leading players show some
government support for on-road vehicle testing. However, with the
development of robotaxis and other on-demand mobility services, the
uniqueness and value of roboshuttles appears to be diminishing. The
expectation of recouping costs through fare revenues is also
becoming unrealistic in the short term. IDTechEx's report provides
insights into early commercialization, suggesting that
achieving sustainable progress will rely on the continuous and
additional value brought by roboshuttle services (e.g. addressing
commuting gaps within regional areas) to attract investment from
governments and customers. IDTechEx believes that during the early
commercialization process, companies should focus on vehicle
delivery and maintenance services to secure their hard-won market
share.
IDTechEx's report, "Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses
2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts", provides a
comprehensive analysis of the sector, contextualizing the current
roboshuttle market with historical sales data from 2019 onwards and
offering regional insights across China, Europe, the USA, and the rest of the world. It identifies
key challenges and opportunities for the roboshuttle industry,
making predictions about when commercial deployment can be
expected. The high-fidelity analysis of each market informs
IDTechEx's 20-year forecasts, offering critical guidance for
stakeholders navigating this evolving landscape.
To find out more about this report, including downloadable
sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/AutonomousBuses.
For the full portfolio of autonomy market research available
from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Autonomy.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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Charlotte Martin
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press@IDTechEx.com
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