By Laura Mandaro
The sudden contraction in U.S. consumer spending and global
liquidity that brought some of America's most revered companies to
their knees has made the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- meant to
represent the country's leading companies -- more a benchmark of
laggards.
For the year to date, the gauge of 30 large and established
companies (DJI) has fallen 5.7%. The S&P 500 (SPX), made up of
a wider variety of large-capitalization and some younger companies,
has lost less than 1%.
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market index has gained 1.3%. And the
more growth- and tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) index has
rallied 14%.
Steep slides in shares of General Motors Corp. (US-GM) and
Citigroup Inc. (C), which hit record lows this year, weighed on the
Dow's performance. These stocks were dropped from the blue-chip
barometer earlier this month.
But even with new entrants Travelers Cos. (TRV) and Cisco
Systems (CSCO), the Dow may fail to catch up as a recovering
economy favors smaller companies that that don't sell much of their
wares overseas.
"We think the recession is ending right here and the resumption
of growth will disproportionately benefit smaller-capitalization
companies," said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated
Investors, which manages about $409 billion.
** On Thursday, all U.S. benchmarks fell after the Labor
Department's June jobs report showed a steeper drop in payrolls
than economists were expecting. The surprise decline, a loss of
467,000 jobs compared to 325,000 anticipated, added to concerns
that stocks' rise since early March had got ahead of itself.
"Concerns about continuing weakness in the economy have
certainly put a damper on equity markets today," said Bill Stone,
chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management. Listen to
full interview.
Bad start to weekend
U.S. stock losses steepened after the New York Stock Exchange
extended the trading session by 15 minutes due to unspecified
system irregularities.
The Dow average closed down 223 points, or 2.6%, at 8,281. The
S&P 500 sank 27 points, or 2.9%, to 896 points. The Nasdaq
Composite fell 49 points, or 2.7%, to 1,797.
The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 registered their third
straight weekly loss, the longest weekly losing streak since early
March, when stocks began their roughly four-month climb. For the
week, the Dow closed off 1.9%, the S&P 500 sank 2.5%, and the
Nasdaq fell 2.3%. Markets are closed Friday for the Independence
Day holiday.
Bitten by banks
The performance of the Dow-30 over the two years has shown that
a traditional strategy of favoring large-cap companies over smaller
ones during tough times didn't pan out.
"Going large didn't work this time. Staying small helped," said
James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital
Management, which manages about $375 billion.
In particular, tech, retail and emerging-markets sectors all
outperformed the S&P 500 since the summer of 2007, when the
financial crisis got into gear, he noted.
Since the bear market started in October 2007, the Dow has
fallen at about the same pace as the S&P 500 and the Wilshire
5000, registering a 42% drop.
For just this year, however, the other indexes have left the Dow
in the dust. One factor dogging the blue-chip gauge: Several
constituents were the big banks and financials at the epicenter of
the mortgage and credit crisis.
Shares of Bank of America Corp. (BAC), a Dow-30 component,
plunged to below $3 back in late February. The stock is down 10%
this year.
Citigroup's stock tumbled to an all-time low under $1 in March
as worries that huge losses would lead to a government takeover.
The publishers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average removed Citi
from about a month ago, at the same time when GM, another erstwhile
component, filed for bankruptcy.
Even General Electric Co. (GE), the worse performer among the
Dow's current consistuents with a 29% year-to-date loss, owes much
of its woes to its finance arm.
Big percent rebounds in financial stocks since early March have
had limited benefit to the Dow average because, unlike other
indexes, it's price-weighted rather than market-cap weighted. That
means stocks trading at a higher price can have an outsized impact
on the average.
Bank of America shares, for instance, have quadrupled since
early March. But since they are worth only about $12.60 a piece,
they have less of an impact than changes in higher-priced stocks,
such as IBM (IBM), at $103 a share, or Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), at
$69 a share.
In fact, financial stocks have a bigger influence on the S&P
500, where the sector comprises about 14% of the total index.
For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, in contrast, financials
make up about 10%, both on a price- and market-cap weighted
basis.
Buck to give a boost
Since hitting a closing low on March 9, the Dow has rallied 26%
-- slightly under the 33% gain in the S&P 500 and the 34% gain
in the Wilshire 5000.
It's likely to continue to underperform as a recovery favors
tinier, more nimble companies, analysts say. Fluctuations in the
U.S. dollar are one reason.
Federated's Orlando anticipates that the dollar has ended its
slide and will strengthen against the euro. A stronger dollar puts
more domestic-oriented companies at the advantage to larger
multinationals -- the type of companies like McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
and General Electric that make up the Dow.
Unless they're struggling against huge job losses, plunging
industrial output and a historic credit squeeze, multinationals
tend to benefit when the dollar slips.
"If we're right that the dollar will strengthen over the next
year, that's not great for large-capitalization companies," Orlando
said.