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MARKET WRAPS

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Services PMI for eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, UK; EU PPI; Germany foreign trade; UK official reserves; trading update from Naturgy

Opening Call:

Shares seem poised for a mixed open in Europe on Monday after strong U.S. jobs data. In Asia, stock benchmarks were mostly higher; Treasury yields mostly advanced; the dollar gained ground; oil rose after Saudi Arabia said it would make a voluntary cut of 1 million barrels of oil a day; while gold declined.

Equities:

European stocks could start off mixed on Monday, following data that showed a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in May.

"Much stronger-than-expected US job creation data points to a robust economy even if the unemployment rate rose to a higher-than-expected 3.7%," IG said. Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, higher than the 190,000 increase forecast by analysts in a WSJ survey.

The Friday report was the last monthly jobs snapshot before the Fed's June meeting.

Some officials have indicated that they would support halting rate increases to study how the economy is handling the 10 consecutive increases leading to this point. Wall Street has largely bought that rhetoric. Market odds for a June hike more than halved since last week, according to CME Group.

But Friday jobs data also underscored the prospect that if officials do tap the brakes, they could also throttle up again later this summer. Two-year Treasury yields rose to 4.501%, up from 4.339% Thursday, reflecting a greater perceived likelihood that the Fed could decide to raise rates again, or to hold them at high levels for longer than investors expected.

Even so, money managers remain mostly unfazed. The Cboe Volatility Index, a measure known as Wall Street's fear gauge, hit its lowest level on Friday since 2020.

"Investors know we're in the latter innings of the game" regarding interest-rate increases, said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard. "My view of the risk of recession has definitely gone down in the last four to five weeks."

Forex:

The dollar was firmer in Asia amid higher Treasury yields. The dominant macroeconomic story is the huge amount of U.S. Treasury issuance expected, following the debt ceiling being suspended, possibly to the tune of US$1 trillion, said RBC Markets.

This is likely to push up U.S. yields in the near term, and given the consensus of upside pressure on interest rates, this implies the dollar should remain supported, it added.

However, after a strong run since mid-May, the dollar is facing headwinds from Fed officials suggesting a "skip" in June may be appropriate, said Capital Economics.

Bolstering the argument for Fed officials to stand down later this month is the moderation in wage growth and the rise in the unemployment rate for May, along with the downbeat ISM survey, it said, adding that the data is "consistent with labor market conditions and price pressures easing."

However, it said the CPI data to be released on the eve of the FOMC decision later this month "could still throw a spanner in the works."

Bonds:

Treasury yields advanced on higher-than-expected U.S. employment data, which also boosted expectations of a rate increase by the Fed this month.

Fed-funds futures traders priced in a 25.2% probability the central bank will lift its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its June 13-14 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A week ago, the market had priced in a roughly 64% probability of a quarter percentage point rate hike.

Fed officials this week have indicated that they may hold off on raising rates at their June meeting while reserving the ability to lift at subsequent meetings if warranted.

"Robust job gains relative to expectations reflect ongoing peculiarities in the post-pandemic U.S. economy. However, the uptick in the unemployment rate and moderation in wage growth together signify progress in rebalancing the labor market. This is required to bring inflation back towards target," said Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

"We continue to expect a pause in Fed actions going into 2024, but further signs of economic and inflation resilience mean there is still potential for another rate hike this summer," it said.

Energy:

Oil futures were higher after Saudi Arabia on Sunday announced a voluntary output cut for July on top of previously announced curbs amid concerns over slowing global energy demand.

OPEC+'s "moderately bullish meeting partly offsets some bearish downside risks to our December 2023 price forecast of $95/bbl, including supply beats in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, and downside risks to China demand, " Goldman Sachs said.

The outcome of the meeting reinforces Saudi Arabia's "uneasiness with the level of short positions in the market rather than signaling concerns around demand outlook," said Jefferies.

"The open-ended part of the measure was likely put in place to discourage future short positioning," it said.

Metals:

Gold futures dropped, pressured by a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report, but prices for the metal held onto a modest gain for the week to post their first weekly rise in about a month.

Gold was "almost in the clear" as a couple of Federal Reserve doves had markets convinced that policymakers would skip a June rate hike, said Oanda.

If the jobs data had cooperated, "some traders were making the case that they might even be done," it said. However, the U.S. economy is "too resilient and that should keep the risk of more Fed tightening on the table."

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Copper was down after recording its first weekly gain in seven weeks last week.

ANZ said the gain was mostly due to improved sentiment across commodity markets, following the signing of a deal to lift the U.S. debt ceiling.

They reckon that the metal's supply issues are likely to continue, noting that Chile's copper production declined more than 5.0% on month in April.

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Iron-ore futures were higher in early China trade, extending a broad rebound trend since late May.

SDIC Essence Futures reckons the steel-making commodity may be able to sustain its recovery in the coming weeks. It pointed out that a local city government in China has released new property purchase support measures, which could boost real-estate sales and raise the property sector's steel and iron-ore demand.

"Given the previous price correction has reflected most negative factors, iron ore could rebound from current levels in the near term," it added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output After OPEC Members Clash Over Quotas

VIENNA-Saudi Arabia said Sunday it would cut 1 million barrels of oil a day as part of a deal between OPEC and its allies after one of the most contentious production meetings in recent years amid concerns over slowing global energy demand.

Saudi Arabia said the output cut was for July and on top of previously announced curbs, which would be extended until the end of 2024. The United Arab Emirates and some other large producers also extended their previously announced cuts.

Military Leaders Warn U.S.-China Divide Threatens to Bring Down 'Iron Curtain' in Asia

SINGAPORE-With the U.S. and China trading accusations over strained ties, Asia-Pacific defense officials found a common voice urging the two powers to talk more and warning of the heightened risks of the strained relationship spiraling into a direct conflict.

A senior defense official from the Philippines warned that the great power tension-if left unchecked-could bring down an "Iron Curtain" across Asia.

VW Is on a Hunt for Resources to Remove China From Its EV Batteries

BERLIN-Volkswagen is searching the world, from Canada to Indonesia, for supplies to make the batteries in electric vehicles it sells in the U.S. and Europe less dependent on Chinese components, a senior VW executive said.

PowerCo, a subsidiary VW created last year, is leading the company's search for natural resources and other critical battery ingredients. Ultimately, VW wants to secure its own supplies for battery plants outside China and not have to rely on Chinese suppliers for battery materials, most of whom are in China, VW board member and technology chief Thomas Schmall told The Wall Street Journal.

Ukraine's Zelensky: We Are Ready for Counteroffensive

ODESA, Ukraine-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was now ready to launch a long-awaited counteroffensive but tempered a forecast of success with a warning: It could take some time and come at a heavy cost.

"We strongly believe that we will succeed," Zelensky said in an interview in this southern port city as his country's military girded for what could be one of the war's most consequential phases as it aims to retake territory occupied by Russia.

Ukraine-Backed Troops Capture Russian Soldiers in Cross-Border Foray

KYIV, Ukraine-A fresh incursion into Russia's Belgorod region by Ukraine-backed troops on Sunday, who said they seized territory and captured two Russian soldiers, added to signs of vulnerability in Russia's defenses on its own territory ahead of a major expected offensive by Ukraine aimed at taking back land occupied by Moscow.

Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said fighting was taking place with enemy troops in the border village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, where authorities had sought to evacuate residents following heavy shelling by Ukrainian forces. "Battles are ongoing right now," said Gladkov, adding: "I hope they are all destroyed."

A Month of Russian Missile Attacks Leaves Kyiv Residents on Edge

KYIV, Ukraine-Just four minutes passed between the wail of the air-raid siren and the moment a Russian Iskander missile slammed into a courtyard outside a Kyiv hospital where desperate families were hoping to find shelter.

The predawn attack on Thursday killed two women and a child as they and a group of at least a dozen people kicked and banged on a door leading to the hospital basement. A guard on duty had fallen asleep, authorities later said.

Turkey's Erdogan Appoints New Cabinet, Signaling Economic Shift

ISTANBUL-Newly re-elected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced a new cabinet that changed the leadership in the areas of foreign policy and security and signaled a shift in economic policies that have pushed the country to the brink of financial instability.

In a televised speech Saturday evening, hours after he was sworn in for another term as president, Erdogan said he was reinstating Mehmet Simsek as finance minister. Simsek, who previously served as finance minister and deputy prime minister under Erdogan, is a symbol of a time when Erdogan adopted more-conventional economic policies earlier in his 20-year run ruling Turkey.

Incoming Twitter CEO Hires Executive From NBCUniversal

Linda Yaccarino is expected to take over as chief executive of Twitter on Monday, according to a person familiar with the situation, and has tapped one of her top lieutenants from NBCUniversal to join her.

Joe Benarroch is taking on a senior business operations role at the social-media company, according to a memo Benarroch sent to NBCUniversal colleagues.

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Monday

06:00/GER: Apr Foreign Trade

06:30/SWI: May CPI

07:00/TUR: May PPI

07:00/TUR: May CPI

07:00/SVK: 1Q Labour Force Sample Survey: Employment & unemployment

07:00/SVK: 1Q Average monthly wage of employees

07:00/CZE: 1Q Wages

07:15/SPN: May Spain Services PMI

07:45/ITA: May Italy Services PMI

07:50/FRA: May France Services PMI

07:55/GER: May Germany Services PMI

08:00/EU: May Eurozone Services PMI

08:00/UK: May UK monthly car registrations figures

08:30/UK: May UK Official Reserves

08:30/UK: May S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI

09:00/EU: Apr PPI

19:31/IRL: May Ireland Services PMI

23:01/UK: May BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 05, 2023 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)

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