Aussie Falls As Weaker GDP Growth Spurs RBA Rate Cut Speculation
04 December 2024 - 10:47AM
RTTF2
The Australian dollar weakened against other major currencies in
the Asian session on Wednesday, as slower domestic growth spurred
bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut
interest rates in early 2025. Also, a private survey showed that
China's services sector grew less than expected in November.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that
Australia's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted
0.3 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2024. That missed
expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent, although it was up
from 0.2 percent in the previous three months.
On an annualized basis, GDP was up 0.8 percent, again missing
forecasts for a gain of 1.1 percent and down from 1.0 percent in
the three months prior.
Data from Judo Bank showed that the services sector in China
continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace, with a
services PMI score of 51.5. That's down from 52.0 in October.
Also, the services sector in Australia continued to expand in
November, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Judo Bank
revealed on Wednesday, with a services PMI score of 50.5. That's
down from 51.0 in October.
Worries about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's impending
tariffs on various nation including China, also turned down the
currency.
Traders reacted to the political turmoil in South Korea, a
deepening political crisis in France and faltering economic growth
in China, with the South Korean market plunging over 2 percent.
They also remain optimistic about an interest rate cut by the U.S.
Fed in December.
Traders will keep an eye on the release of the closely watched
monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday that could impact the outlook
for interest rates ahead of the Fed's next monetary policy meeting
in mid-December.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 72.1 percent
chance the Fed cuts rates by another 25 basis points but a 27.9
percent chance the central bank leaves rates unchanged.
In the Asian trading today, the Australian dollar fell to more
than a 2-1/2-month low of 95.92 against the yen and nearly a
1-month low of 1.6368 against the euro, from yesterday's closing
quotes of 96.99 and 1.6195, respectively. If the aussie extends its
downtrend, it is likely to find support around 94.00 against the
yen and 1.66 against the euro.
Against the U.S., the Canada and the New Zealand dollars, the
aussie slipped to a 4-month low of 0.6409, nearly a 3-month low of
0.9023 and a 2-day low of 1.0981 from Tuesday's closing quotes of
0.6483, 0.9118 and 1.1022, respectively. The aussie may test
support near 0.62 against the greenback, 0.89 against the loonie
and 1.08 against the kiwi.
Looking ahead, Services PMI reports from various European
economies and U.K. for November are due to be released in the
European session.
In the New York session, U.S. MBA weekly mortgage approvals
data, U.S. and Canada services PMI data for November, U.S. EIA
weekly crude oil data and U.S. Fed Beige report are slated for
release.
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