SEATTLE, June 8, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Americans who
made out-of-town moves last year typically paid less money for
larger houses, according to a new Zillow® analysis of moving
data from northAmerican® Van
Lines.
That's a sharp break from the trend in recent years. The housing
market's impressive strength in 2020 paired with a newfound
motivation to move helped sellers cash in on quickly rising home
values to find places that better suit their needs -- namely,
bigger homes in less-expensive areas.
Movers went to ZIP codes where sold homes are 33 square feet
larger on average than where they came from -- roughly the size of
a walk-in closet or extra bathroom. This was a significant jump
from the 9-to 21-square foot step-up movers have taken in recent
years.
"The ability to sell in a relatively expensive market and
relocate somewhere more affordable -- either to save money or get
more bang for their buck with a larger property -- was extremely
attractive to movers," said Jeff
Tucker, senior economist at Zillow.
Zillow's recent Mover Report found the top metros for net
in-migration, with more people moving in than out, are sunny and
relatively affordable. Phoenix,
Charlotte and Austin led the U.S. in terms of net
in-migration.
Taken as a whole, the findings are evidence of the Great
Reshuffling at work. Up until March
2020, workers were largely locked to locations within a
bearable commute of their workplace. When the pandemic hit, many
began working remotely -- spending a lot more time at home and
thinking about where, and how, they want to live. A larger house
with an office or chef's kitchen, or a home with lower monthly
payments in sunny Arizona, became
extremely alluring.
All the while, interest rates kept dropping, adding fuel to a
scorching-hot housing market and boosting shoppers' buying power.
Home appreciation was supercharged in 2020 by massive demand and
limited supply, driving typical home values up 8.4% ($20,716) over the course of 2020, compared with
3.7% growth ($8,791) in
2019.
Tucker said the trend could contribute to convergence in home
prices, as people move away from the priciest cities and toward
more affordable ones, which will tend to cause prices to rise in
their destinations. It may also spread out some of the consumer
spending, tax revenues and job growth that have been increasingly
concentrated in "superstar cities" over the last few decades. Home
values are rising fastest in places like Austin and Phoenix, and most slowly in San Francisco, which led the U.S. in
appreciation as recently as 2016.
Nationwide, the average home value in ZIP codes people moved
from was about $419,000, compared to
an average home value in destination ZIP codes of about
$392,000. This means the average
mover was sliding down the price ladder by about $27,000. When movers relocated in 2019, average
home values in their destinations were only about $3,400 less than where they started.
The trend in 2020 to move to more affordable places than in
years past was seen across nearly every type of move between urban,
suburban and rural areas. People leaving urban ZIP codes moved to
areas that were $66,000 cheaper in
2020, versus an average of about $26,000 cheaper in the previous four years. Those
leaving suburban ZIPs moved about $23,000 down the price ladder, compared to an
average decrease of just over $500
the previous four years.
Even those leaving rural areas for urban or suburban areas,
where prices are higher, only moved up the price ladder by about
$31,000 this year as opposed to
roughly $41,000 in recent years.
"We have felt the impact of this supercharged market since the
second half of 2020. These migration patterns are challenging
the moving industry to provide capacity in the right places.
As you would expect, we end up with a lot of trucks in the low-cost
areas where people are moving to, and fewer trucks in the high-cost
areas where demand is high," said Kevin
Murphy, Vice President and General Manager of northAmerican
Van Lines. "It is more important
than ever to make sure you have a reliable partner helping you with
your move."
Migration to less urban areas picked up slightly in 2020
compared to 2019, while moves to more dense locations ticked down
-- which is not to say that early pandemic fears of an urban exodus
have been borne out. The number of households that moved out of
urban areas did not significantly rise in 2020. Beyond that,
Zillow's Urban-Suburban report found that despite some early
pandemic-era narratives, suburban housing markets did not
disproportionately strengthen in 2020 at the expense of urban
areas.
The biggest decrease in share of moves between area classes was
from suburban to urban, which fell 1.5% year over year. The largest
increase was seen in suburban to rural moves, which increased by
1.2% on the year.
San Jose saw the most extreme
changes in average home value for both those moving to and from ZIP
codes within the metro, followed by San
Francisco and Los Angeles.
Those moving out of San Jose went
to a ZIP with average home values nearly $1.2 million lower, while those moving in saw
houses worth about $1.4 million more
than where they came from.
Moving on Up - Americans' Preferences for Larger Homes,
2016-2020
Load Year
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Ave. SF Origin
ZIP
|
1,840
|
1,862
|
1,858
|
1,856
|
1,880
|
Ave. SF Destination
ZIP
|
1,856
|
1,871
|
1,878
|
1,878
|
1,913
|
Ave. SF Change,
Origin to Destination ZIP
|
16
|
9
|
20
|
21
|
33
|
Metropolitan
Area*
|
Zillow Home
Value Index
(ZHVI); April,
2021
|
ZHVI %
Change
Year over
Year;
April,
2021
|
Ave. ZHVI
Change for
those
Moving In
|
Ave. ZHVI
Change for
those Moving
Out
|
Ave. SF
Change
for those
Moving
In
|
Ave. SF
Change
for those
Moving
Out
|
United
States
|
$281,370
|
11.6%
|
($26,963)
|
($26,963)
|
33
|
33
|
New York,
NY
|
$530,082
|
9.5%
|
$144,774
|
($158,981)
|
83
|
71
|
Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim, CA
|
$783,610
|
10.4%
|
$614,793
|
($591,517)
|
(113)
|
269
|
Chicago,
IL
|
$270,352
|
9.5%
|
($85,080)
|
$89,775
|
(55)
|
135
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
$289,582
|
11.9%
|
($61,326)
|
$28,762
|
468
|
(369)
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
$288,947
|
13.3%
|
($82,866)
|
$46,656
|
55
|
(27)
|
Houston,
TX
|
$241,698
|
9.1%
|
($69,253)
|
$59,995
|
451
|
(449)
|
Washington,
DC
|
$498,649
|
11.5%
|
$146,141
|
($135,203)
|
(71)
|
159
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
$336,714
|
9.1%
|
($144,164)
|
$74,801
|
(264)
|
331
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
$280,038
|
13.0%
|
($63,161)
|
$31,392
|
374
|
(293)
|
Boston, MA
|
$563,149
|
11.6%
|
$190,243
|
($170,429)
|
(60)
|
131
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
$1,235,705
|
7.4%
|
$856,457
|
($815,525)
|
(129)
|
274
|
Detroit,
MI
|
$209,728
|
11.0%
|
($107,479)
|
$119,830
|
(64)
|
112
|
Riverside,
CA
|
$460,833
|
16.2%
|
$46,162
|
($92,823)
|
85
|
17
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
$355,822
|
20.4%
|
($48,237)
|
($27,012)
|
116
|
(55)
|
Seattle,
WA
|
$627,290
|
14.6%
|
$260,754
|
($264,337)
|
(56)
|
105
|
Minneapolis-St Paul,
MN
|
$331,152
|
9.9%
|
($76,075)
|
$75,690
|
79
|
(8)
|
San Diego,
CA
|
$729,318
|
16.5%
|
$396,605
|
($422,781)
|
(235)
|
236
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
$205,604
|
11.5%
|
($95,351)
|
$112,849
|
56
|
15
|
Tampa, FL
|
$271,353
|
15.8%
|
($79,814)
|
$73,756
|
(196)
|
253
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
$332,992
|
11.2%
|
($28,097)
|
$64,057
|
(35)
|
153
|
Denver, CO
|
$517,395
|
12.9%
|
$66,326
|
($141,738)
|
273
|
(264)
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
$185,063
|
13.0%
|
($143,326)
|
$138,316
|
(136)
|
205
|
Portland,
OR
|
$482,708
|
13.3%
|
($68,322)
|
($9,567)
|
(42)
|
99
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$281,335
|
14.4%
|
($65,427)
|
$63,422
|
296
|
(220)
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
$507,735
|
14.3%
|
$90,214
|
($128,023)
|
(77)
|
49
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
$233,083
|
10.4%
|
($77,521)
|
$52,586
|
216
|
(228)
|
Orlando,
FL
|
$285,049
|
8.3%
|
($89,488)
|
$64,618
|
(31)
|
78
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$218,672
|
14.6%
|
($102,691)
|
$123,198
|
(53)
|
76
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$184,224
|
13.5%
|
($197,369)
|
$204,956
|
(183)
|
(31)
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
$241,203
|
14.6%
|
($74,845)
|
$68,806
|
315
|
(291)
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
$330,880
|
9.4%
|
($112,481)
|
$18,096
|
(23)
|
41
|
Columbus,
OH
|
$244,220
|
12.4%
|
($102,017)
|
$111,565
|
(90)
|
81
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$212,334
|
13.7%
|
($96,710)
|
$124,727
|
565
|
(464)
|
San Jose,
CA
|
$1,364,273
|
5.9%
|
$1,357,893
|
($1,160,458)
|
(74)
|
212
|
Austin, TX
|
$441,931
|
25.5%
|
($100,567)
|
$1,194
|
130
|
(100)
|
Virginia Beach,
VA
|
$275,562
|
10.3%
|
($65,907)
|
$48,728
|
84
|
51
|
Nashville,
TN
|
$320,818
|
11.0%
|
($50,689)
|
($9,082)
|
259
|
(261)
|
Providence,
RI
|
$375,407
|
15.0%
|
($41,939)
|
$15,290
|
(63)
|
118
|
Milwaukee,
WI
|
$232,744
|
13.9%
|
($116,431)
|
$128,666
|
(131)
|
154
|
Jacksonville,
FL
|
$265,105
|
11.7%
|
($60,580)
|
$89,408
|
(24)
|
95
|
Memphis,
TN
|
$182,194
|
13.2%
|
($46,734)
|
$96,938
|
428
|
(349)
|
Oklahoma City,
OK
|
$175,922
|
8.9%
|
($187,063)
|
$140,522
|
(98)
|
101
|
Louisville-Jefferson
County, KY
|
$205,647
|
10.6%
|
($85,923)
|
$82,197
|
(102)
|
117
|
Hartford,
CT
|
$274,468
|
13.6%
|
($125,603)
|
$104,594
|
(92)
|
66
|
Richmond,
VA
|
$279,336
|
10.5%
|
($69,034)
|
$36,317
|
212
|
(154)
|
New Orleans,
LA
|
$231,224
|
9.1%
|
($128,363)
|
$77,837
|
(99)
|
153
|
Buffalo,
NY
|
$202,040
|
14.1%
|
($140,212)
|
$125,141
|
(141)
|
107
|
Raleigh,
NC
|
$327,048
|
12.3%
|
($69,436)
|
$51,024
|
370
|
(272)
|
Birmingham,
AL
|
$195,643
|
10.7%
|
($46,066)
|
$71,670
|
116
|
(178)
|
Salt Lake City,
UT
|
$466,768
|
18.3%
|
$9,323
|
($47,652)
|
(20)
|
34
|
*Table ordered by
market size
|
Methodology: For every move in the interstate moves dataset
shared with Zillow, Zillow compared the ZHVI in the origin and
destination ZIP codes on the month of the move's load date, and
computed the mean change by year. Only moves with valid origin and
destination ZHVI computed this way were considered for the
calculation of ZHVI change. For square footage, we computed the
median square footage of each home sold in a ZIP code in the year
of the move's load date, and only included moves with both a valid
origin and destination median square footage. The change in median
square footage for each move was then aggregated up to an average
change in house size. Moving data was based on SIRVA/North American
Van Lines data for the first 11
months of 2020.
About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc.
(NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to
unlock life's next chapter.
As the most-visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates
offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying,
renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless
end-to-end service. Zillow Offers® buys and sells homes directly in
dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over
their timeline. Zillow Home Loans™, our affiliate lender, provides
our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure
financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched
Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline
Zillow Offers transactions.
Zillow Group's brands, affiliates and subsidiaries include
Zillow®, Zillow Offers®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™,
Zillow Closing Services™, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia®, Out East®,
StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal
Housing Lender, NMLS #10287
(www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).
About North American Van
Lines, Inc.
With over 300 agents throughout the U.S.
and Canada, North American
Van Lines, Inc., established in
1933, is a leader in providing specialized transit services and
high quality, personalized household goods moving services to
consumers, corporations, military personnel and governments. North
American, based in Fort Wayne, IN,
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SIRVA Inc., a leader in providing
relocation solutions to a well- established and diverse customer
base around the world. Information on North American Van Lines (U.S. DOT No. 070851) can be found on
the Internet at www.northamerican.com.
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