Barclays Gets Capital Boost At Expense Of Earnings
13 June 2009 - 12:10AM
Dow Jones News
Barclays PLC's (BCS) capital may get a boost from the sale of
its Barclays Global Investors money manager to Blackrock Inc.
(BLK), but it comes at the expense of earnings, analysts said
Friday.
The U.K.-based bank is selling BGI for $13.5 billion (GBP8.2
billion), or a net gain of GBP5.3 billion - part made up of cash,
and part made up of a 19.9% stake in Blackrock - that will boost
the bank's core Tier 1 ratio to 8% from 6.5% at year-end.
But analysts said that at a time when a weaker economy is
driving impairments up, and as the recent boom in capital markets
revenue is expected to level off, Barclays' earnings will no longer
have the benefit of what was seen as a relatively stable revenue
flow from BGI.
Fees earned on assets under management do, indeed, fluctuate
with the value of those assets in what has been a troubled market,
but NCB Stockbrokers analyst Simon Willis said that "the point
still stands" that BGI's contribution has been relatively
stable.
In 2008, BGI earned Barclays a pretax profit of GBP595 million,
down from GBP734 million, hurt in part by an 8% appreciation of the
U.S. dollar against the British pound. Assets under management were
flat in pounds, however, as exchange-rate movements made up for
most of the negative market valuations.
RBC Capital markets analysts are also concerned about what the
sale means to Barclays' earnings, saying that having sold off what
was a business that produced a "steady stream income," it will have
to rely more on earnings from business - such as the U.S.
investment banking business that Barclays acquired last fall from
Lehman Brothers - that is more directly affected by capital markets
volatility.
While Barclays concedes that the deal is dilutive to earnings,
with BGI having contributed 15% to pretax profits in 2008, it says
fee income will only fall to 31% of group revenue from the current
35%-36%.
Moreover, it says the dilution will be partially offset by
potential revenue stemming from its planned cooperation with
Blackrock, and sales of Blackrock products to Barclays customers
and vice-versa.
NCB's Willis said the lost revenue likely won't be recovered
within the next couple of years, but the cross-selling should help
in the longer term.
He said Barclays' management made a lot out of the current
regulatory constraints in the U.S. that limit cross-selling between
investment banking and asset management customers.
Disposing of BGI, and keeping it at an arms' length by not
having more than 5% of the voting rights in Blackrock, as
stipulated in this deal, allows Barclays to sell investment
products to customers that previously were off-limits due to the
regulation.
Bob Diamond, head of Barclays Capital, said Friday that "the
combination of lower ownership and sophisticated technology means
that there will be extra flows (for BarCap) of hundreds of million
of dollars per year."
CreditSights, meanwhile, said that while Barclays has done its
best to put a positive spin on the deal, "the bottom line is that
it is sacrificing stable long-term earnings for an immediate boost
to income and capital."
NCB's Willis said that overall, the deal makes sense in the
current environment, where focus is on having capital strength,
even if it is dilutive to earnings, and the price "is a good one."
Willis has a reduce rating on Barclays.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Mark Phin agreed: "While
strategically we'd rather they'd held onto BGI, we think that's a
price worth paying for the capital."
"Overall, we view the transaction positively, but with the
details widely speculated and more earnings dilution than we had
anticipated, the slight share price weakness is understandable,"
Phin said. He has a market perform rating and 270 pence target
price on Barclays.
Following the disposal of BGI, Barclays consists of both U.K.
and global retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and
investment banking at Barclays Capital. BarCap was the single
biggest revenue contributor in 2008, although its overall profit
contribution was depressed by write-downs and impairments.
Unlike its domestic peers, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC
(RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG), Barclays sought the help
of private investors to boost its capital ratios, thereby avoiding
government ownership
At 1251 GMT, Barclays shares were down 11.5 pence, or 3.8%, at
293 pence, giving it a market capitalization GBP24.8 billion.
Company Web site: www.barclays.com
-By Ragnhild Kjetland; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9268;
ragnhild.kjetland@dowjones.com