Q1 2024 Trading Statement
COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT NO 12/2024 - April 18, 2024
Strong business momentum continued into 2024 – organic
EBIT growth guidance raised
Statement by Royal Unibrew’s CEO, Lars Jensen: “The first
quarter has marked a strong start to the year. The business
momentum we built throughout 2023 has continued into 2024. The
continued strong performance of our markets in Northern Europe,
combined with a normalized Italian On-Trade beer channel and a
strong rebound in our International segment, drove solid organic
volume growth of 6% in the first quarter. Strong value management
efforts from our organization across all categories ensured organic
net revenue growth of 10% in the first quarter.
Going into 2024, we further intensified our focus on delivering
the efficiency improvements after some turbulent years with
unprecedented high inflation, strong volume growth and a series of
acquisitions. This increased focus starts to yield results towards
the end of the first quarter. Vrumona has now begun production for
the border between Denmark and Germany, and we are investing in the
San Giorgio facility so the plant can take over more production for
other Royal Unibrew entities in the coming quarters. Along with
other general efficiency improvements, this resulted in the fourth
consecutive quarter where we can present positive organic EBIT
growth and also an organic EBIT margin that is higher than last
year.
We upgrade our expectations for organic EBIT growth from 5-15%
to 9-19% as a consequence of efficiency improvements and
acquisition-related benefits being delivered ahead of plan for the
Group. We maintain our expectation that the acquisitions of Vrumona
and San Giorgio will contribute by a further DKK 80 million to
EBIT, resulting in a reported EBIT of around DKK 1,875-2,025
million," Lars Jensen concludes.
Key highlights of the quarter:
- Organic volume growth of 6% (Q1 2023: -2%)
- Positive price/mix of 4% driven by positive channel and product
mix in Western Europe
- Organic net revenue growth of 10% (Q1 2023: 7%)
- Organic EBIT growth of 13% (Q1 2023: -7%)
- Acquisitions delivered DKK 15 million in EBIT in Q1 2024
- Organic EBIT margin expansion by 0.2 percentage points
- Full-year organic EBIT growth guidance is raised from 5-15% to
9-19%. We maintain our expectation that the acquisitions of Vrumona
and San Giorgio will contribute by a further DKK 80 million to
EBIT, resulting in a reported EBIT of around DKK 1,875-2,025
million
Financial highlights for Q1 2024In Q1 2024,
group volumes increased by 32% to 3.7 million hectoliters primarily
as a result of the acquisitions of Vrumona in the Netherlands and
San Giorgio in Italy. Together, they contributed around 0.7 million
hectoliters, meaning that the organic volume growth was 6% in the
first quarter of the year. The strong organic volume growth was
driven by easy comparable numbers for the Italian On-Trade beer
business and a normalization of the International segment that was
negatively impacted by political unrest in Q1 2023.
Net revenue increased to DKK 3,199 million, corresponding to a
growth of 25% compared to the same period last year. Again, the
growth was positively impacted by acquisitions (DKK 398 million)
and the organic net revenue growth adjust- ed for this was 10%. The
Norwegian Kroner was slightly weaker in Q1 2024 than in the same
period in 2023, and combined with the Swedish Kroner, these
currencies had a negative impact on the organic net revenue growth
of 0.5 percentage points.
The positive organic price/mix development of 4 percentage
points in the quarter was driven by strong product and channel mix
in Italy, price increases in Norway and Sweden to mitigate the
effect of weak currencies in 2023 and price increases across most
countries.
EBIT increased by DKK 36 million to DKK 210 million in Q1 2024.
As a result of this, the EBIT margin declined by 0.2 per- centage
points to 6.6%, but adjusting for the dilutive effects of the
acquisitions, the EBIT margin expanded organically by 0.2
percentage points in Q1 2024.
The first quarter of the year is a seasonal small quarter where
small changes to the activity level can have a larger impact on
earnings than in the high season.
Net financial expenses was DKK 30 million higher at DKK -81
million in Q1 2024 primarily due to higher interest-bearing debt
and a higher average interest rate. There was a loss of DKK 3
million (Q1 2023: DKK 0 million) from investments in associates,
which relates to closed operations in Greenland.
Tax expense for the quarter was DKK 26 million, an increase of
DKK 1 million compared to Q1 2023 and corresponds to a tax rate of
20% of profit before tax and loss from investments in
associates.
Earnings per share was unchanged at DKK 2.0 (Q1 2023: DKK 2.0)
as net profit for the quarter was flat.
Free cash flow for Q1 2024 amounted to DKK -480 million, which
is DKK 76 million lower than last year. Net capex at DKK 120
million was DKK 19 million higher than last year, whereas outflow
from changes in net working capital was DKK 75 million higher than
last year at DKK 506 million. This development followed normal
seasonal patterns and was driven by an increase in receivables due
to the timing of Easter and therefore represents a less favorable
phasing of payments compared to last year.
Full-year organic EBIT growth guidance is raised from 5-15% to
9-19%. We maintain our expectation that the acquisitions of Vrumona
and San Giorgio will contribute by a further DKK 80 million to
EBIT, resulting in a reported EBIT of around DKK 1,875-2,025
million. Net revenue of around DKK 15 billion is unchanged.
Selected financial highlights and key ratios
mDKK |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2023 |
FY 2023 |
Volume (million hectoliters) |
3.7 |
2.8 |
14.1 |
Organic volume growth (%) |
6 |
-2 |
-3 |
Net revenue |
3,199 |
2,552 |
12,927 |
Organic net revenue growth
(%) |
10 |
7 |
4 |
EBITDA |
376 |
302 |
2,208 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
11.8 |
11.8 |
17.1 |
EBIT |
210 |
174 |
1,638 |
Organic EBIT growth (%) |
13 |
-7 |
7 |
EBIT margin (%) |
6.6 |
6.8 |
12.7 |
Profit before tax |
126 |
123 |
1,406 |
Net profit for the period |
100 |
98 |
1,095 |
Free cash flow |
-480 |
-404 |
1,143 |
Net interest-bearing debt |
6,908 |
4,887 |
6,426 |
ROIC incl. goodwill (%)* |
11 |
12 |
11 |
ROIC excl. goodwill (%)* |
17 |
19 |
18 |
NIBD/EBITDA (times)** |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
Equity ratio (%) |
32 |
36 |
32 |
Earnings per share (EPS) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
21.9 |
* Running 12 months** Including proforma figures for
acquisitions, net debt/EBITDA was 2.9x on a 12 months running
basis
Management’s reviewThe strong momentum
generated towards the end of 2023 has continued into 2024. This is
based on sustained strong execution in the multi-beverage markets
in Northern Europe, a normalization of the On-Trade beer business
in Italy, a healthy rebound in International and contributions from
companies acquired in recent years. In Northern Europe, organic
volume growth was primarily driven by Norway and Denmark, while
value management performance was solid across all countries in
Northern Europe.
Production costs increased by DKK 436 million to DKK 1,957
million driven by acquisitions. As a percentage of net revenue,
production cost was -61.2% in Q1 2024 compared to -59.6% in Q1 2023
caused by a revaluation of inventory.
Sales and distribution expenses increased by DKK 108 million to
DKK 816 million in Q1 2024, but as a percentage of net revenue,
sales and distribution expenses declined to -25.5% in Q1 2024 (Q1
2023: -27.7%). As a percentage of net revenue, this was driven by
lower transportation costs and slightly lower marketing costs.
Administration expenses increased by DKK 67 million to DKK 216
million in Q1 2024, and as a percentage of net revenue,
administration expenses increased to -6.8% in Q1 2024 (Q1 2023:
-5.8%). The higher level of administration expenses is explained by
the acquisition of Vrumona and higher IT costs as a result of the
ongoing integrations.
The consumer continues to display resilience, but we remain
cautious on the consumer outlook as the macro economic environment
remains uncertain.
AcquisitionsThe acquisitions of Vrumona and San
Giorgio were finalized last year, and these two acquisitions
contributed by around 0.7 million hectoliters, net revenue of DKK
398 million and EBIT of DKK 15 million.
Integration of both acquisitions are proceeding according to
plan. In early April, just around six months after Vrumona was
acquired, all IT infrastructure and systems from Vrumona were
seamlessly integrated into Royal Unibrew, and the remaining parts
of the carve out from Heineken (primarily HR and procurement)
continue through the remainder of the year. In San Giorgio, parts
of the plant and equipment are being upgraded so the plant can take
over more production for other Royal Unibrew entities in the coming
quarters. In Norway, the IT integration planned for Q4 2024 is on
track.
Capital structureThe first quarter of the year
is traditionally cash flow negative due to the build up to the high
season, and in 2024 it is further negatively impacted by phasing
because of the timing of Easter. With free cash flow of DKK -480
million for the quarter, the net interest-bearing debt increased to
DKK 6,908 million. Including proforma earnings from acquisitions,
net debt/EBITDA was 2.9x on a 12 months running basis (on reported
earnings, net debt/EBITDA was 3.0x).
It is proposed to the AGM that a mandate is given to the Board
of Directors authorizing them to potentially distribute an
extraordinary dividend of up to DKK 14.50 per share before the end
of 2024 at par with the dividend for 2022 paid in 2023.
OutlookFull-year organic EBIT growth guidance
is raised from 5-15% to 9-19%. We maintain our expectation that the
acquisitions of Vrumona and San Giorgio will contribute by a
further DKK 80 million to EBIT, resulting in a reported EBIT of
around DKK 1,875-2,025 million. Net revenue of around DKK 15
billion is unchanged.
Full-year outlook (2024)
mDKK |
Outlook 2024 (April) |
Outlook 2024 (February) |
Actual 2023 |
Net
revenue |
Around DKK 15 billion |
Around DKK 15 billion |
12,927 |
Organic EBIT growth |
9-19% |
5-15% |
7% |
Our net revenue guidance is based on a flat volume development
assumption and a positive price/mix leading to a low-
to-mid-single-digit percentage organic net revenue growth, as the
M&A contribution from Vrumona and San Giorgio is expected to be
around DKK 1.5 billion.
Vrumona is expected to contribute inorganically to EBIT by
around DKK 80 million in 2024, whereas the EBIT impact from San
Giorgio will be non-material.
As a consequence, and supported by an expected positive value
management impact, we do expect the EBIT margin to expand
organically.
The guidance is based on average summer weather and traveling
activities.
Developments in activities for the period January 1 – March 31
broken down into market segments
|
Northern Europe |
Western Europe |
International |
Group |
|
Q1 24 |
Q1 23 |
Q1 24 |
Q1 23 |
Q1 24 |
Q1 23 |
Q1 24 |
Q1 23 |
Volumes (million hectoliters) |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
Organic volume growth (%) |
1 |
4 |
8 |
-8 |
47 |
-34 |
6 |
-2 |
Net revenue (mDKK) |
2,161 |
2,059 |
730 |
268 |
308 |
225 |
3,199 |
2,552 |
Organic net revenue growth (%) |
5 |
15 |
24 |
-12 |
37 |
-22 |
10 |
7 |
Northern Europe
The Northern Europe segment consists of our multi-beverage
businesses in Finland, Norway, Sweden, the Baltic countries,
Denmark and Germany.
In Northern Europe, volumes increased organically by 1% in a
flat to slightly declining market. Our multi-beverage businesses in
Denmark and Norway showed good growth, whereas Finland realized
flat volumes and the Baltic countries slightly declining volumes in
the first quarter of the year.
Net revenue increased to DKK 2,161 million, corresponding to 5%
organic net revenue growth. This was driven by Nor- way, Finland
and Denmark, cider/RTD and CSD as well as price increases in
Norway.
Development in net revenue – selected Nordic countries
mDKK |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2023 |
FY 2023 |
Denmark |
816 |
771 |
3,786 |
Finland |
663 |
628 |
3,151 |
Norway |
369 |
343 |
1,602 |
Organic net revenue growth of 6% in Denmark was driven by solid
performance in CSD and energy drinks. In Finland, net revenue grew
organically by 6% due to very strong growth in cider/RTD and strong
growth in CSD.
In Norway, the organic growth in net revenue was 8% in the
quarter, which was a result of price increases to mitigate the weak
Norwegian Kroner and a positive channel mix with higher sales in
On-Trade.
Western EuropeWestern Europe consists of our
multi-niche businesses in the Netherlands, Italy and France.
In Q1 2024, volumes increased by 0.8 million hectoliters to 1.1
million hectoliters in total. Adjusted for the acquisitions of
Vrumona and San Giorgio that contributed by around 0.7 million
hectoliters, the organic volume growth correspond- ed to 8% and was
driven by a normalization of the On-Trade beer market in Italy,
which in Q1 2023 was impacted by destocking.
Net revenue increased by DKK 462 million to DKK 730 million,
which again primarily is attributable to acquisitions. Adjusting
for these, organic net revenue growth in Q1 2024 was 24%. The
strong organic positive price/mix is driven by a strong country and
product mix.
InternationalThe International segment
comprises business in markets outside Northern Europe and Western
Europe segments.
The International business rebounded strongly in Q1 2024, as the
segment was up against easy comparable numbers in Q1 2023 when it
was negatively impacted by political unrest in some African
markets. Volumes recovered with an organic growth of 47% to 0.3
million hectoliters.Net revenue increased by DKK 83 million to DKK
308 million, corresponding to an organic growth of 37% in the
quarter. The slower growth in organic net revenue compared to the
organic growth in volumes stems from a negative impact from country
mix.
Capital Market Day Date: May 13, 2024Venue:
Vrumona BV, Vrumonaweg 2, 3981 HT Bunnik, The Netherlands Sign up
at: investor.relations@royalunibrew.com
For further information on this announcement:
Investor Relations: Jonas Guldborg Hansen, (+45) 20 10 12 45Media
Relations: Michelle Nørrelykke Hindkjær, (+45) 25 64 34 31
Investors and analysts can register for a conference call on
Friday, April 19, 2024, at 09.00 am CEST at the following
link:https://register.vevent.com/register/BI8bf818f30a0141ad92926f8d493f2a49
Financial calendar for 2024April 30
Annual General Meeting 2024August
22 Interim report for January 1 – June
30, 2024November 12 Trading statement for January 1 –
September 30, 2024
Forward-looking statementsThis trading
statement contains forward-looking statements, including statements
about the Group’s sales, revenue, earnings, spending, margins, cash
flows, inventories, products, actions, plans, strategies,
objectives and guidance with respect to the Group’s future
operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without
limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or
imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain
the following words or phrases “believe, anticipate, expect,
estimate, intend, plan, project, will be, will continue, likely to
result, could, may, might”, or any variations of such words or
other words with similar meanings. Any such statements involve
known and unknown risks, estimates, assumptions and uncertainties
that could cause the Group’s actual results, performance or
industry results to differ materially from the results expressed or
implied in such forward-looking statements. Royal Unibrew assumes
no obligation to update or adjust any such forward-looking
statements (except for as required under the disclosure
requirements for listed companies) to reflect actual results,
changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such
forward-looking statements.
Some important risk factors that may have direct bearing on the
Group’s actual results include, but are not limited to: economic
and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange
rates), financial and regulatory developments, development in the
demand for the Group’s products, introduction of and demand for new
products, changes in the competitive environment and the industry
in which the Group operates, changes in consumer preferences,
increasing industry consolidation, the availability and pricing of
raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production-
and distribution-related issues, information technology failures,
breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions
resulting from market-driven price reductions, determination of
fair value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities,
litigation, pandemic, environmental issues and other unforeseen
factors.
New risk factors may emerge in the future, which the Group
cannot predict. Furthermore, the Group cannot assess the impact of
each factor on the Group’s business or the extent to which any
individual risk factor, or combination of factors, may cause
results to differ materially from those contained in any
forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking statements
should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results.
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